Why Arsenal's Danny Welbeck Gamble Has Not Paid off

Manchester United have a striker problem.

Last season, their leading scorer Wayne Rooney managed to score a relatively paltry 14 goals in all competitions.

This was the lowest total for their club’s leading scorer for more than three decades since Frank Stapleton’s 13 goals in the 1981-82 season.

Former Arsenal striker Robin van Persie continued to look a shadow of the player he was in his first season at Old Trafford and contributed just 10 goals last campaign.

Then there was Radamel Falcao. The Colombian arrived on loan last summer with a reputation as one of the world’s best strikers, and he departed last month after just four goals in 29 appearances, the same amount scored by his defensive team-mate Chris Smalling.

But amid all of these underperforming strikers, never once did United regret their decision to sell Danny Welbeck to Arsenal.

It was a gamble by the Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger to sign an unwanted United reserve last summer, which so far has not paid off.

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Welbeck has swapped Old Trafford for the Emirates, but he essentially remains the same talented, but largely frustrating player.

He might have moved 200 miles south, but he still can’t escape the inherent problems of his game.

In his native Manchester, he was a striker who didn’t score enough and so was shunted to the wings, and this has happened again since his arrival in north London.

Last season Welbeck managed a total of eight goals in 34 games, and just four goals in 25 games in the Premier League.

It is a modest and ultimately disappointing record, especially for the club’s third-most expensive signing ever.

While Welbeck’s move to Arsenal was a gamble, it was also backed by some good sense and the expectation that he would develop under the watchful eye of Arsene Wenger.

Welbeck’s pace, strength, physique and the manner in which he can almost glide along the pitch have echoes of a certain Thierry Henry.

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Sixteen years ago, Wenger took a chance on Henry, who like Welbeck was a player searching for someone to help him realise his potential, and a striker who was being wasted out on the wings.

Under Wenger, Henry was played through the centre and became Arsenal’s all-time record goalscorer—and arguably the Premier League’s greatest ever player.

It is clearly unfair to compare any player to the World Cup winner, but Wenger saw something in Welbeck, and believed he could also help to transform him.

Welbeck was lured to Arsenal by the chance to work with Wenger and play in his favoured position as a central striker.

“I prefer to play through the middle,” he said, as reported by the Daily Telegraph when he arrived. “Once I get into the box and am getting the chances, I have got faith in my ability...Arsenal is the place for me to advance my career. With the magnificent players in midfield, I can run on to the end of those balls and slot them away.”

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The problem is the slotting-away part never really happened much.

At the start of the season, with Olivier Giroud out injured, Welbeck started 13 consecutive games in the Premier League and Champions League and scored five goals, but he never entirely convinced and was moved when the Frenchman returned.

In 2015, hampered by injuries, Welbeck has scored only once, and he has rarely been trusted in the centre again.

He would now appear to be third in the queue for his favoured position behind Giroud, who scored 19 goals last season, and Theo Walcott, who started in the centre in the FA Cup final and scored more goals than Welbeck from a fraction of the games he played—seven goals from only seven starts.

The problem for Welbeck is he just isn’t clinical enough as a central striker, and it seems to be getting worse, not better.

In the 2013/14 season, he scored every 162 minutes for United, but last season it was every 419 minutes for Arsenal.

Sir Alex Ferguson, David Moyes and Louis van Gaal all came to realise Welbeck is not a prolific goalscorer, and now Wenger is possibly beginning to appreciate that as well.

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However, Wenger recently spoke about his belief in Welbeck. “He’s a team player, and I believe technically he has improved a lot," he told the club's official website, via the Daily Mirror.

"When you look at him now I believe that technically he is much more mature, more composed in front of goal, the quality of his runs is getting better and he has huge, huge attributes.

“I think he’s an important player who contributes a lot. Not only does he now score goals, but as well contributes a lot to the team work."

As is the wont of managers, this quote doesn't strictly reflect the truth, but it is more designed to show faith and help boost the player’s confidence.

Welbeck made his first-team debut nearly seven full years ago in September 2008. He will turn 25 early next season.

It is now time Welbeck made the leap from being a player of youthful potential to a consistent and reliable performer in the Premier League.