NBA Finals 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for Game 4
This might not be the prettiest NBA Finals the league has ever seen, but it might be the most compelling. With the Cleveland Cavaliers holding a 2-1 lead over the Golden State Warriors heading into Thursday night's Game 4, the intensity surrounding the series is at full tilt.
How close has the series been thus far? One point has separated the two teams over the first three games, two of which have gone to overtime. The margin for error on either side of the floor is nil.
The season started with LeBron James playing the role of returning hero, and his legend has grown twofold in the Finals. In the wake of injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, James has carried the Cavs, and his hometown of Cleveland, to an improbable lead over the league's best team. Beyond putting up historic numbers, James is playing with the kind of passion we've never seen from him.
Meanwhile, Warriors guard Stephen Curry, the 2015 NBA MVP, is not only having trouble knocking King James from the throne, he's struggling to overcome Irving's replacement, Matthew Dellavedova. Despite averaging 24 points per game in the series, Curry is shooting only 39.7 percent from the floor and 32.4 percent from three-point range.
Who holds the edge heading into Game 4? What do the Warriors need to do to level the series? Everything you need to know is in the next nine slides.
1. Stephen Curry Will Have a Big Night
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It was only a matter of time before the league MVP got his groove back.
After a solid Game 1, Curry was stymied by the Cavs defense in Game 2 and much of Game 3. He finally broke out of his shooting slump, scoring 24 points in the second half, including 17 in the fourth quarter alone of the third tilt.
Golden State feeds off of the energy of its point guard—there may not be anything as incendiary in the NBA as a Curry three-pointer.
Check the next two slides to find out how the Warriors will create space for Curry.
2. David Lee Will Play at Least 13 Minutes
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After riding the pine for the first two games, David Lee provided a spark off the bench for Golden State in Game 3. He scored 11 points (on 4-of-4 shooting from the floor) and grabbed four rebounds in 13 minutes of action.
According to the NBA’s Twitter account, Steve Kerr confirmed Lee will see more time in Game 4.
Lee’s skill on the offensive end proved to be a necessary tonic for Golden State’s pick-and-roll game. Cleveland was forced to change its defense after twice being beaten for easy buckets by Lee passes, which opened up room for Curry to get to work.
Golden State will have to hope the additional offense provided by Lee offsets his inability to protect the rim on defense. Cleveland coach David Blatt will have his team ready to attack once Lee enters the game.
3. Focal Point: How Will Cleveland Defend the 5-1 Pick-and-Roll?
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As mentioned in the previous slide, the insertion of David Lee into the Warriors lineup forced Cleveland to switch up its pick-and-roll coverage.
With little reason to fear Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli, Cleveland had success doubling Curry off the pick-and-roll. Lee, however, is a different proposition, and his ability to move the basketball had Cleveland’s defense scrambling.
So Blatt adjusted, instructing his defenders to switch on the pick-and-roll, the result of which was Curry having tasty matchups with slower-footed big men. Predictably, he made them pay, burying jumpers over Tristan Thompson.
Blatt will have to choose which poison to drink in Game 4, and that choice could be the game’s deciding factor.
4. Joey Crawford Will Be the Top Trending Topic on Twitter
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Love him or loathe him, you can’t ignore referee Joey Crawford. He makes sure of it.
The announcement that Crawford would be the lead official for Game 4 was met with groans throughout Thursday morning, and for good reason.
Via NBAstuffer.com, an average of 46.1 fouls have been called during playoff games Crawford has officiated. That number is good for the second most among lead officials who have refereed at least five playoff games.
Expect a lot of whistles during Game 4, and if you keep an eye on Twitter during the game, expect a lot of moaning too.
5. Expect a Muted Performance from Matthew Dellavedova
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Between playing pesky defense on Stephen Curry, diving for every loose ball and dropping 20 points in Game 3, Dellavedova has been everything the Cavs could’ve asked for following Kyrie Irving’s injury.
Asking him to repeat his performance for a third straight game might be a little much, however.
According to Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal, Dellavedova will be altering his pregame routine after suffering severe cramping following Game 3. The key omission, it turns out, will be black coffee.
Dellavedova has played the league MVP (Curry) to a standstill over the last two games. Whether it’s due to a change in routine, lingering effects of dehydration or simple regression to the mean, it’s unreasonable to expect the same magic trick to keep working.
6. LeBron James Will Continue to Play at a Historic Level
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Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowksi said it best following Game 3:
"It is the greatest basketball story told, and James' starring role could be the perfect punctuation to a wild season. All around LeBron James, they walked the corridors of Quicken Loans Arena late Tuesday in a state of sheer amazement. This shouldn't be happening – this couldn't be happening – but here the Cavaliers are now, two victories away from the NBA championship. Here are LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in these Finals, halfway home.
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LeBron James is playing at a level hitherto unseen in the NBA Finals. His 123 points scored represents a record over the first three games of any Finals, and his averages of 41 points, 12 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game is absurd.
LeBron has taken this too far to wilt now. Failure in front of his home fans is out of the question. He will continue to give Golden State all it can handle and carry the Cavs as far as he can in Game 4.
7. Steve Kerr Will Be Forced into Double-Teaming Lebron James
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Whether Golden State needs to double-team LeBron is perhaps the biggest question entering Game 4.
Via ESPN Stats & Info, the Cavs are only managing .33 points per possession when the Warriors commit a second defender to LeBron. Why isn't Kerr double-teaming LeBron every time down the floor?
Simple: On the whole, Golden State's defense has been very good. It's limited Cleveland to under 40 percent shooting from the floor, which should be enough for the Warriors to win the series.
According to Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick, Kerr on Thursday afternoon remained on the fence about putting more pressure on LeBron, saying "Those are perilous things to try."
Still, the only way to speed up the game and play to a tempo favoring Golden State is to get the ball out of LeBron's hands. It may be risky, but Kerr has enough experience to know you can't win a championship without gambling.
8. Draymond Green Will Have a Big Impact on the Game
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According to ESPN.com’s Ethan Sherwood Strauss, Draymond Green had a lot to say to his teammates following Game 3’s loss.
"They're playing like a team that's desperate and needs something. We're playing like a team that's not desperate and got something. This isn't the time to be quiet. Everybody should speak up. You be quiet now, you'll be home in a couple days."
The problem with Green’s comments? Thanks in part to a bad back, he’s shooting 26.7 percent from the floor in the Finals, including 1-of-8 from three-point range.
Green’s one of the tougher players in the league. Don’t expect him to call out his team and not step up himself.
9. Golden State Will Even the Series
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The Warriors are not a team to panic. They came back from a 20-point deficit against New Orleans earlier in the postseason, and they notched a 26-point comeback against Boston in the regular season.
Like a boxer with one-punch knockout power, deficits don’t bother Golden State. As long as there is time remaining on the clock, it knows it has a chance. Few teams can score in bunches the way the Warriors can.
Cleveland won the last two games by a combined seven points, and it took monumental efforts from LeBron James to do so. Despite the wins, it has yet to shake the belief out of Golden State.
The Warriors won’t play scared in Game 4. They’ll come out ready, and they’ll even the series at two games apiece.
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