Ranking the Top 25 Golfers Heading into the 2015 U.S. Open
The wait for the season's second major is over, as the 2015 U.S. Open begins Thursday.
Chambers Bay, the site of the 2010 U.S. Amateur, is the controversial host venue for the 115th U.S. Open. The Tacoma, Washington, track, which looks more like a links course or the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island than a traditional U.S. Open venue such as Olympic Club or Merion, will demand length off the tee, high shots and creativity around the greens.
As Golf Digest's Alex Myers wrote, "The U.S. Open's old 'fairways and greens' adage doesn't always hold true at this links layout that's more like a course you'd expect to see in the British Open rota."
Which golfers are best suited to tackle this unique challenge? Based on recent play, past performances at the U.S. Open and an evaluation of each player's overall talent, the following 25 stand above their peers.
25. Tiger Woods
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Official World Golf Ranking: 181
Best of 2015: It hasn’t been good. Tiger Woods’ best showing of the season is a tie for 17th at the Masters. The year began with Woods’ short-game woes at the Hero World Challenge and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. His last two starts, at The Players Championship and the Memorial, produced near-bottom-of-the-pack finishes.
Why He's Ranked Here: Tiger Woods earns the 25th spot in this list as something of a courtesy and a nod to his past play at the U.S. Open. The work he’s been doing with coach Chris Como, as well as his surveillance at Chambers Bay and his latent reserves of Tiger Woods-ness, should at least make him the 25th-best golfer in the field.
U.S. Open History: Woods is a three-time U.S. Open winner. He famously lapped the field at Pebble Beach in 2000, finishing at 12 under, 15 strokes ahead of the competition. He won in 2002 at Bethpage Black and gutted out a playoff win over Rocco Mediate amid a significant knee injury at Torrey Pines in 2008. He's totaled 14 top-25 finishes in 18 U.S. Open starts.
24. Hunter Mahan
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Official World Golf Ranking: 35
Best of 2015: Hunter Mahan’s best finish this year is a tie for third at the Frys.com Open. He tied for ninth at the Masters and has made 14 of 15 cuts. In his most recent start, Mahan tied for 39th at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Why He's Ranked Here: Mahan’s proficiency with the driver earns him a longer look than his recent form would suggest. He’s also taken time off to prepare for the season’s second major and should have things in order in Tacoma. You have to feel he’s going to drive the ball better than Tiger Woods, so positioning him ahead of the 14-time major champion is only right.
U.S. Open History: In nine U.S. Open starts, Mahan has made five cuts and recorded two top-10 finishes. Mahan’s best showing came in 2013 at Merion, where he finished tied for fourth. He missed the cut at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
23. Jason Dufner
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Official World Golf Ranking: 69
Best of 2015: In something of an off year for Jason Dufner, his best finish is a tie for eighth at the AT&T Byron Nelson at the end of May. He’s made 11 of 15 cuts and has notched five top-25 finishes. He tied for 24th at the Memorial in his most recent start.
Why He's Ranked Here: The Duf has been rounding into form lately amid a turbulent year that’s included returning from a neck injury, weight loss and a divorce. He’s been very good in two of his last three Opens, as “fairways and greens” is his game, thus giving him the edge over Mahan.
U.S. Open History: Dufner has made five of eight cuts in his efforts at our nation’s championship. The Auburn alum tied for fourth in 2012 at the Olympic Club and again tied for fourth in 2013 at Merion. He missed the cut at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
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22. Billy Horschel
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Official World Golf Ranking: 20
Best of 2015: Last year’s FedEx Cup champion, Billy Horschel has made 14 of 18 cuts this season. He finished third at the Valero Texas Open and has been on form lately, finishing tied for 13th at The Players Championship and tied for 11th at the Memorial Tournament. Billy Ho is 15th on tour in greens in regulation at 69.73 percent.
Why He's Ranked Here: Billy’s heating up. And when he gets hot, as he did during the FedEx Cup playoffs last year, watch out. He’s done decent work in past U.S. Opens, and his aptitude for hitting greens in regulation should give him a respectable chance at Chambers Bay.
U.S. Open History: The Florida alum has teed it up three times in the U.S. Open. He’s made the cut twice, tying for fourth at Merion in 2013. He tied for 23rd at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
21. Ian Poulter
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Official World Golf Ranking: 25
Best of 2015: The oft-outspoken Ian Poulter has made 11 of 12 cuts with eight top-25 finishes. Poulter’s best play this year came at the Honda Classic, where he tied for third. He played well in his most recent outing, finishing tied for fifth at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Poulter has done good work with the flatstick this season—he’s currently 18th in strokes gained: putting (.514).
Why He's Ranked Here: It’s surprising that Poulter, an adept putter and determined grinder, hasn’t done better for himself in the U.S. Open. He was strong in his last outing, and despite his calling Chambers Bay “ a complete farce,” he should benefit from its links style more than, say, Horschel. Thus, he earns the 21st spot.
U.S. Open History: Poults has played in the U.S. Open 11 times in his career. He’s never finished inside the top 10, and his best showing at the event is a tie for 12th in 2006. Poulter tied for 17th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
20. Brandt Snedeker
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Official World Golf Ranking: 30
Best of 2015: Vanderbilt alum Brandt Snedeker has made 14 of 17 cuts in a resurgent season. Snedeker won the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in February and has totaled six top-10 finishes. Encouragingly for Sneds’ fans, he tied for sixth at the AT&T Byron Nelson in his most recent start. Snedeker is fifth in strokes gained: putting (.642).
Why He's Ranked Here: Sneds has played well in recent U.S. Opens, which may not be a huge indicator of success at this new venue. However, he’s something of a plodder and has been putting well this season and hitting the ball higher, all of which should benefit him at Chambers Bay.
U.S. Open History: Snedeker tied for ninth at Pinehurst No. 2 last year. He’s made six of eight cuts at the U.S. Open in his career and totaled six top-25 finishes, with his best finish having come in 2010 (tied for eighth).
19. Zach Johnson
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Official World Golf Ranking: 24
Best of 2015: Iowa native Zach Johnson has made the cut in 11 of his 15 starts on the PGA Tour this season. He’s recorded nine top-25 finishes, placing inside the top 10 five times. His best finish came in his most recent start: a fifth-place finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson. This season, Johnson is 18th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green (.981).
Why He's Ranked Here: Ranking ZJ this high is based on his strong recent play and his proficiency from tee to green this season as well as the fact that Chambers Bay is a nontraditional U.S. Open venue.
U.S. Open History: Johnson has made six of 11 cuts in past U.S. Opens. He tied for 40th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year and has never finished inside the top 25 at the competition.
18. Brooks Koepka
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Official World Golf Ranking: 23
Best of 2015: West Palm Beach, Florida, native Brooks Koepka is having a breakout season. He’s made 11 of 12 cuts with six top-25 finishes, and he won the Waste Management Phoenix Open at the beginning of February. The tour’s eagle leader, Koepka is 18th on tour in strokes gained: total (1.017).
Why He's Ranked Here: Koepka is a power player. And while the U.S. Open often demands restraint, Koepka is ideally equipped to put the pedal down when opportunities arise. His consistency this season has been impressive, which gets him the nod ahead of the other entries on this list thus far.
U.S. Open History: Koepka has competed in two U.S. Opens in his brief career. He missed the cut in 2012 but was impressive last year, tying for fourth at Pinehurst No. 2.
17. Martin Kaymer
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Official World Golf Ranking: 18
Best of 2015: Last year’s U.S. Open winner, Martin Kaymer has made five of eight cuts on tour this season. His best finish is a tie for sixth at the WGC-HSBC Champions in November. Kaymer has missed three of his last five cuts on the PGA Tour and missed the cut at the Irish Open in his most recent outing.
Why He's Ranked Here: Winning last year’s Open, albeit on a vastly different golf course, earns Kaymer consideration here. However, he hasn’t been particularly good this season. It’s his patient and deliberate conquest of Pinehurst No. 2 last year that suggests he has the faculties to conquer a tricky layout that he and 99 percent of the field will be seeing for the first time.
U.S. Open History: At Pinehurst No. 2 last year, Kaymer beat the field by eight strokes, capturing his second major championship. He’s made six of seven cuts at the event and tied for eighth in 2010.
16. Patrick Reed
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Official World Golf Ranking: 15
Best of 2015: San Antonio, Texas, native Patrick Reed has made the cut in 16 of 17 starts on tour this season. He’s had 10 top-25 finishes, placed second at the Valspar Championship and won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Reed is 14th on tour in strokes gained: total (1.152).
Why He's Ranked Here: Reed’s strokes-gained metric is an indicator of the quality of his play from tee to green. It’s only his limited sample of work at the U.S. Open that keeps him from placing even higher. Still, his quality work from tee to green and ability to hit the ball high earn him the 16th spot.
U.S. Open History: Reed’s U.S. Open resume is a short one. He has teed it up just once in the U.S. Open thus far in his career, finishing tied for 35th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
15. Matt Kuchar
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Official World Golf Ranking: 17
Best of 2015: The jovial Matt Kuchar has recorded three top-10 finishes in 16 starts and has missed just one cut in 2015. He tied for second at the Humana Challenge and for third at the Sony Open in Hawaii. In his most recent start, Kuch tied for 26th at the Memorial Tournament. He’s done good work with the flatstick this year and ranks sixth on the tour in strokes gained: putting (.609).
Why He's Ranked Here: Kuchar has a decent U.S. Open record. He’s slotted here ahead of Reed due to a longer resume at the tour’s second major. Consistency and good work around the greens this year earn him the 15th spot.
U.S. Open History: Kuchar has made seven of 12 cuts at the U.S. Open. He tied for 14th as an amateur in 1998. His best finish is a tie for sixth in 2010. He tied for 12th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
14. Jimmy Walker
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Official World Golf Ranking: 11
Best of 2015: Jimmy Walker has teed it up 15 times on the PGA Tour this season, making the cut all but one time. He’s won twice—at the Sony Open in Hawaii and the Valero Texas Open—and finished in second twice as well, including in his most recent start, at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Walker leads the tour in strokes gained: putting (.844) and is fifth on tour in strokes gained: total (1.696).
Why He's Ranked Here: Finishing second in his most recent start, Walker is on form. He’s also doing good work from tee to green this year. Entering the category of legitimate contenders on his list, Walker has the trifecta of excellent recent play, quality stats and strong recent form at the Open all working in his favor.
U.S. Open History: Walker tied for ninth at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 last year. Prior to that appearance, he hadn’t teed it up in an Open since 2002, when he missed the cut.
13. Sergio Garcia
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Official World Golf Ranking: 9
Best of 2015: Sergio Garcia hasn’t missed a cut in any of his nine PGA Tour events this season. He’s finished second twice, including in his most recent PGA Tour start, at The Players Championship. He also tied for fourth at the Northern Trust Open. In his most recent start (on the European Tour), Garcia missed the cut at the Irish Open. He’s seventh on tour in strokes gained: total (1.565).
Why He's Ranked Here: Garcia would be a top-10 candidate on this list if he hadn't missed the cut at the Irish Open. His ball-striking always earns him consideration at tricky venues, and his longer resume at the U.S. Open places him ahead of Walker here.
U.S. Open History: Garcia has competed in 15 U.S. Opens in his career. He’s missed the cut only twice and has recorded four top-10 finishes. His best finish is a tie for third in 2005, followed by a fourth-place finish in 2002. He tied for 35th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
12. Jason Day
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Official World Golf Ranking: 10
Best of 2015: Jason Day has missed his last two cuts on the PGA Tour. Prior to that, however, he had made nine straight cuts with four top-10 finishes. The brightest spot of Day’s year was winning the Farmers Insurance Open in February. He leads the tour in birdie average at 4.61 tweeters per round.
Why He's Ranked Here: Day would be a blue-chip candidate for this U.S. Open were it not for his recent struggles. He’s a birdie machine and has a quality resume at the U.S. Open. Much like Garcia, Day would have made the top 10 in this list if not for his having missed the cut in two straight tour events.
U.S. Open History: The Australian has made the cut in all four of his U.S. Open starts. He’s finished inside the top five in three of his four appearances and tied for fourth at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
11. Adam Scott
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Official World Golf Ranking: 12
Best of 2015: Australian Adam Scott has just one top-10 finish this season: a tie for fourth at the WGC-Cadillac Championship in March. He’s made seven of nine cuts and tied for 38th at the Masters. Scott is fifth on tour in greens in regulation this season (70.99 percent) and sixth in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.535).
Why He's Ranked Here: Scotty’s well-equipped to win a U.S. Open and played well at Pinehurst last year. Although he’s struggled with the putter, he is one of the best on tour from tee-to-green. He’s a bit better than his countryman, Day, in this regard and thus edges him out.
U.S. Open History: Scott’s best finish in a U.S. Open came last year at Pinehurst No. 2, where he tied for ninth. The Australian has made seven cuts in 13 appearances at the event, which is his worst cut rate of the four major championships.
10. Bubba Watson
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Official World Golf Ranking: 4
Best of 2015: Long-hitting Bubba Watson hasn’t missed a cut this season. Watson won the WGC-HSBC Champions in November, tied for second at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and finished third at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He tied for 42nd at The Players Championship in his most recent start. This season, Watson is fourth in strokes gained: total (1.836).
Why He's Ranked Here: If Watson is able to keep his head in the game and maintain focus, he certainly has the tools to play well at Chambers Bay. With his power, ability to hit a high ball and creativity around the greens, Bubba would be a top candidate were it not for his lackluster record in past U.S. Opens.
U.S. Open History: Watson has made just four of eight cuts at the U.S. Open. He tied for fifth in 2007, his only top-10 finish. The left-hander missed the cut at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
9. Hideki Matsuyama
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Official World Golf Ranking: 14
Best of 2015: Japanese phenom Hideki Matsuyama has made 15 of 16 cuts on the PGA Tour this season. He tied for second at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and finished third twice among his total eight top-10 finishes. Matsuyama tied for fifth at the Memorial Tournament in his most recent PGA Tour start. The expert ball-striker is second on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.751).
Why He's Ranked Here: Matsuyama is an exceptional candidate on paper, and he's also playing well. If he had a longer resume at the U.S. Open, he would be a top-five contender at Chambers Bay.
U.S. Open History: Matsuyama has competed in two U.S. Opens, tying for 10th at Merion in 2013 and finishing tied for 35th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
8. Phil Mickelson
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Official World Golf Ranking: 19
Best of 2015: Phil Mickelson has teed it up 11 times on the PGA Tour this season, making eight cuts. His best finish came at the Masters, where he tied for second. Lefty has totaled five top-25 finishes and is seventh on tour in birdies, averaging 4.29 per round.
Why He's Ranked Here: Mickelson looks to have his game in order after doing good work at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. He’s already made a visit to Chambers Bay, and we can certainly assume he’s crafted an optimal plan of attack. Mickelson’s experience and the fact that he’s already prepared extensively at Chambers Bay earn him the eighth spot.
U.S. Open History: Lefty’s history of runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open is well-known. The 44-year-old has placed second or tied for second six times in 24 U.S. Open appearances, most recently in 2013. He tied for 28th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
7. Henrik Stenson
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Official World Golf Ranking: 5
Best of 2015: Henrik Stenson finished second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational back in March, his best showing on the PGA Tour this season. He’s made the cut in all eight of his PGA Tour appearances and has totaled three top-10 finishes. Stenson is third on tour in strokes gained: total (2.068).
Why He's Ranked Here: Consistency. Quality play in all facets of the game. A good record at past U.S. Open venues. It’s difficult not to like Stenson at Chambers Bay, and he’s only beat out by players who are hotter and/or have better records at the tournament.
U.S. Open History: Stenson has made six of eight cuts at the U.S. Open. He’s recorded two top-10 finishes, with one of the strong showings coming last year, when he tied for fourth at Pinehurst No. 2.
6. Jim Furyk
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Official World Golf Ranking: 3
Best of 2015: The tour’s resident grinder-in-chief, Jim Furyk, has made nine of 11 cuts this season. He returned to the winner's circle with a win at the RBC Heritage in April and has totaled four top-10 finishes in 2015. Furyk is 10th on tour in strokes gained: total (1.264).
Why He's Ranked Here: Chambers Bay is a new venue for the tour’s best. Furyk, the ultimate plodder and a past U.S. Open champion, has to be a favorite to work his way around the Tacoma track. It’s only his lack of length off the tee that keeps him from placing higher.
U.S. Open History: Furyk won the 2003 U.S. Open at Olympia Fields. He’s made 17 of 20 cuts in the competition with a total of six top-10 finishes. He tied for 12th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
5. Rickie Fowler
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Official World Golf Ranking: 8
Best of 2015: Murrieta, California, native Rickie Fowler issued a statement victory at The Players Championship, triumphing over Kevin Kisner and Sergio Garcia in a playoff. He tied for third at the WGC-HSBC Champions to begin his season and tied for 12th at the Masters. Fowler has made 10 of 12 cuts this season.
Why He's Ranked Here: The Cobra staffer has stumbled since his win at the Players. Still, his second-place finish at a U.S. Open track last year and sky-high confidence following his win at TPC Sawgrass place him among the favorites. A huge win recently—plus a recent penchant for showing up in majors—equals the fifth position in these rankings.
U.S. Open History: Fowler tied for second at Pinehurst No. 2 last year amid his impressive run in major championships. He’s made four of six cuts in our national championship and tied for 10th at Merion in 2013.
4. Dustin Johnson
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Official World Golf Ranking: 7
Best of 2015: Dustin Johnson has made 10 of 12 cuts with six top-10 finishes. Chief among those top 10s: a win at the WGC-Cadillac Championship in March and a second-place finish at the Northern Trust Open. DJ tied for 13th at the Memorial Tournament in his most recent start. Johnson is eighth on tour in strokes gained: total.
Why He's Ranked Here: Chambers Bay is going to play long. Johnson hits the ball longer than anyone on tour. This alone is a decent reason to consider the new father. His solid play from tee-to-green this season and recent U.S. Open form, however, make him a standout candidate.
U.S. Open History: DJ has competed in the U.S. Open seven times in his career. He’s made six cuts with two top-10 finishes, including a tie for fourth at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
3. Justin Rose
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Official World Golf Ranking: 6
Best of 2015: Englishman Justin Rose won the Zurich Classic, tied for second at the Masters and finished second at the Memorial (losing in a playoff) in his most recent start. He has recorded a total of three top-10 finishes among his seven cuts in 11 starts and ranks second on tour in birdies, averaging 4.56 per round.
Why He's Ranked Here: Though Dustin Johnson has the power edge over Rose, the Englishman earns the third spot thanks to a recent win at the Zurich Classic and a near-win at the Memorial. Rose is also a past U.S. Open winner who is peaking in time for the season’s second major.
U.S. Open History: Rose won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion. He’s made five of nine cuts in the competition overall and has three top-10 finishes. He tied for 12th last year at Pinehurst No. 2.
2. Rory McIlroy
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Official World Golf Ranking: 1
Best of 2015: The world’s top-ranked golfer, Rory McIlroy has fizzled recently with two missed cuts on the European Tour. Stateside, however, McIlroy has been excellent, winning twice in seven starts—the WGC-Cadillac Match Play and Wells Fargo Championship. He’s finished inside the top five a total of four times. McIlroy is second on tour in strokes gained: total (2.172) and fifth in birdie average (4.41).
Why He's Ranked Here: At the top of this list, it was always going to be Rory McIlroy versus Jordan Spieth. Spieth ultimately edges out McIlroy because of the latter’s pair of missed cuts overseas.
U.S. Open History: The four-time major champion won the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional in dominant fashion. He’s made four of six cuts at the event and tied for 23rd at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
1. Jordan Spieth
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Official World Golf Ranking: 2
Best of 2015: FedEx Cup points leader Jordan Spieth has won twice on tour this season, most notably at the Masters, where he tied the tournament record at 18 under par. He’s recorded an impressive three second-place finishes and a total of nine top 10s. Spieth leads the tour in strokes gained: total (2.192).
Why He's Ranked Here: The winner of the season’s first major sits at the top of the power rankings for the second time. The tour’s strokes-gained leader is on form and has to be a favorite at a new venue, given his aptitude for dismantling courses he’s playing for the first time.
U.S. Open History: Spieth tied for 21st as an amateur at the 2012 U.S. Open. He missed the cut in 2013 at Merion and tied for 17th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.
Advanced stats are courtesy of PGATour.com.
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