6 NBA Sophomores with the Most Work to Do This Offseason
The learning curve is steep for an NBA rookie.
The competition is increased, the pace of the game is shifted to warp speed and the spotlight is brighter than any they have faced before.
Baptisms to basketball's biggest stage are almost always rocky rides. LeBron James was a 41.7 percent shooter during his first big league season. Kobe Bryant only managed to log 15.5 minutes per game in his freshman campaign. This season's Rookie of the Year, Andrew Wiggins, posted a below-average 13.9 player efficiency rating.
No one should expect these players to dominate from day one. But that doesn't mean a rookie's struggles should be easily dismissed.
They don't necessarily indicate signs of a larger issue, but they will become a larger issue without the right offseason investment in their improvement. For the six players listed here, there is plenty of work to be done over the coming months.
Since we're focusing on disappointing rookie years, we'll let guys off the hook for having their debut efforts derailed by injury. Players need to have played 30-plus games and averaged at least 10 minutes a night to qualify. So even though Noah Vonleh (39.5 percent shooting) and Doug McDermott (6.1 PER) obviously need to get better, they'll be spared from this microscope.
All six of these players were first-round picks, so there are considerable amounts of hope for each to pan out. But since a higher draft slot entails a greater investment from the franchise, we'll present this group in reverse order of when the players were selected.
P.J. Hairston, SF, Charlotte Hornets
1 of 6
Drafted: 26th overall
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 5.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 15.3 MPG, 32.3 FG%, 30.1 3P%, 9.0 PER
Seemingly everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong during P.J. Hairston's rookie year. There were off-court problems, an issue with his original agent and multiple flopping fines. But those missteps aren't the ones that put him on this list.
His lack of production inside the lines got him here.
Touted as a potential "scorer/three-point specialist" by NBADraft.net's Richard Harris, Hairston did neither of the above consistently or efficiently. He had nearly as many scoreless performances (eight) as double-digit outbursts (nine). Of the 153 players who attempted at least 160 threes, his perimeter conversion rate was tied for the 13th-lowest.
Hairston had trouble carving out a permanent spot in the Charlotte Hornets rotation. Head coach Steve Clifford touted Hairston's ability but gave a pretty scathing review of the rookie's approach to the game.
"Potentially he could be a starter. He can shoot with range and rebounds for his position," Clifford said in March, via Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. "But he hasn't developed any way to play to make his teammates better. ... If you want to be a good player, you've got to learn this league."
Hairston has the talent for a successful NBA career, but he has to leave the off-court blunders in his past and make dramatic strides with his consistency. He isn't stretching a defense thin by misfiring on almost 70 percent of his long-range looks. And he could help the Hornets immensely by developing a more diverse skill set.
Shabazz Napier, PG, Miami Heat
2 of 6
Drafted: 24th overall
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 5.1 PPG, 2.5 APG, 19.8 MPG, 38.2 FG%, 36.4 3P%, 9.3 PER
At his best, Shabazz Napier is shifty off the dribble, confident from beyond the arc and capable of creating scoring chances. But Miami Heat fans may have a tough time linking that description with what they saw from the 23-year-old this past season.
Outside of an encouraging stretch of six consecutive double-digit outings in November, Napier struggled to find his NBA niche. His numbers underwhelmed in both quantity and quality. His 6'1" frame seemed to limit his ability to pick apart a defense with passing or shoot over the top of it.
Had Napier qualified for the category, he would have had the third-worst assist-to-turnover ratio among point guards at 1.6-to-1. The Heat could live with a number close to that if they viewed him as an instant-offense scorer off the bench. But it's tough to pencil someone with a 38.2 field-goal percentage into that role.
The Heat have time to develop Napier if they can keep Goran Dragic from seeking out greener pastures in free agency. But if Miami wants to climb the Eastern Conference standings sooner rather than later, it has to figure out whether Napier is worth the investment.
"With such an uneven ride last season for Napier, the Heat have to get a better read on whether there is something to work with going forward, or whether they are working with a playmaker who lacks outside consistency and athleticism," wrote Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel.
Napier needs to find his role quickly and then develop the requisite skills. If he's going to be a scorer, he has to expand his offensive arsenal. If playmaking is his calling, he needs to improve his vision and decision-making.
Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets
3 of 6
Drafted: 19th overall
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 3.4 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 13.1 MPG, 30.4 FG%, 20.4 3P%, 4.9 PER
The Denver Nuggets seemingly filled two needs during their draft-night swap with the Chicago Bulls. For parting with McDermott, Denver received bruising big man Jusuf Nurkic and combo guard Gary Harris.
The Nuggets definitely found something with Nurkic. He averaged a double-double per 36 minutes (13.9 points and 12.5 rebounds) and earned a place on the All-Rookie second team. The jury remains out on what Denver landed in Harris.
During two seasons at Michigan State, Harris looked like a three-and-D specialist at worst. He never found the long ball in the Mile High City, connecting on only 21 of his 103 shots from distance. At the opposite end, Harris allowed opponents to shoot 3.6 percentage points above their field-goal average.
In other words, there weren't many threes or any lockdown defensive showings coming from Harris.
Admittedly, he wasn't dealt the strongest NBA hand.
He played for two different coaches (first Brian Shaw, then interim coach Melvin Hunt) and suited up for a team that had no discernible identity. He was barricaded behind the likes of Arron Afflalo, Randy Foye, Ty Lawson and Jameer Nelson. Harris didn't see the floor until Denver's eighth game, and he only logged 20-plus minutes seven times.
But the production—or lack thereof—speaks for itself. Of the 27 other rookies who cleared the 700-minute mark, none had a lower PER than Harris. He has to rediscover his shooting touch, tighten his defensive screws and find some reliable sources of offense.
Adreian Payne, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
4 of 6
Drafted: 15th overall
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 23.1 MPG, 41.4 FG%, 11.1 3P%, 7.7 PER
Adreian Payne looked like one of the safer selections in the 2014 draft.
After four years of seasoning under coach Tom Izzo at Michigan State, Payne left East Lansing as an energetic, athletic, sweet-shooting big man. The then-23-year-old didn't have the highest ceiling, but the trade-off was his presumably NBA-ready game.
He never got the chance to showcase his ability with the Atlanta Hawks, who traded him to the Minnesota Timberwolves less than eight months after selecting him. Payne found gobs of playing time with the rebuilding Timberpups, but he performed like a raw prospect.
There were wild swings in his production: three double-doubles, five starts with two points or less. He managed a ghastly shooting rate for a 6'10" power forward. The thought of him as a stretch 4 sounded comical when he wrapped up the campaign at 1-of-9 from three. His physical tools were obvious some nights and nowhere to be found on others.
"I thought he showed glimpses of what we thought he could do, being very aggressive and athletic and doing some of those things," Wolves president-coach Flip Saunders said, per Fox Sports North's Phil Ervin, "yet he just has to learn to slow down and be more consistent."
Payne needs a lot of work. Adding strength would allow him to become more of an interior force, and he has to find a better shooting touch away from the basket. He must consistently channel his energy into controlled aggressiveness to the point where he plays a bigger role in rebounding and on defense without getting himself into foul trouble.
Basically, he needs the polish most scouts thought he already had.
Nik Stauskas, SG, Sacramento Kings
5 of 6
Drafted: Eighth overall
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 4.4 PPG, 0.9 APG, 15.4 MPG, 36.5 FG%, 32.2 3P%, 7.5 PER
Nik Stauskas' NBA career started out on an awkward note. The Sacramento Kings spent a top-10 pick on the shooting guard...one year after investing a top-10 pick in shooting guard Ben McLemore.
Things never really smoothed out from there. Praised for his shot-making and creativity at Michigan, Stauskas didn't do much of either. Sacramento even reportedly dangled him on the trade market in search of frontcourt help, sources told CBS Sports' Ken Berger in January.
Stauskas' strengths were never as potent as they needed to be, and his weaknesses proved difficult to hide.
He shot just 34.4 percent overall and only 33.9 percent from three on catch-and-shoot looks. With a defender six feet or closer to him, he only made 21.4 percent of his long-range attempts. His 9.0 assist percentage tied for 118th out of the 135 guards who averaged at least 15 minutes. Opponents shot 10.9 percentage points above their average on attempts within 10 feet of the basket when guarded by him.
"Barely anything went right for Stauskas," wrote Cowbell Kingdom's Rui Thomas. "... The 21-year-old shooting guard reached double-digit points only nine times, and never consecutively. Opponents attacked Stauskas' defense with regularity, and at times he looked completely overwhelmed on both ends of the court."
Stauskas needs to use this summer to regain confidence in his shot and bulk up his 6'6", 205-pound frame. The Kings need a gunner to keep defenses from crowding DeMarcus Cousins, so they'll give Stauskas an opportunity to win that gig. But if he stumbles out of the gate, Sacramento might thin its 2-guard ranks with a trade to address a bigger need.
Dante Exum, PG, Utah Jazz
6 of 6
Drafted: Fifth overall
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 4.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 22.2 MPG, 34.9 FG%, 31.4 3P%, 5.7 PER
Patience was always bound to be more of a necessity than a virtue with Dante Exum. He was only 18 at the time of the draft. His soaring stock essentially resulted from his freakish physical gifts (6'6" with a 6'9 ½" wingspan, per DraftExpress) and a handful of strong showings on the international circuit.
His debut season was predictably rough. Of the 306 rookies to play at least 1,800 minutes in the three-point era (1979-80 and on), none had a worse PER than Exum. He also produced the second-fewest win shares of the 137 players who started at least 40 games this past season (minus-0.1).
Offense was easily Exum's biggest issue, and the problems stemmed from a lack of assertiveness. Leading up to the draft, scouts praised his explosiveness and questioned his ability to shoot from distance. Then the season started, and Exum fired up 264 of his 416 field goals from beyond the arc (63.5 percent).
That number obviously needs to come way down. He's not a marksman by any stretch, and camping out on the perimeter limits the impact of his natural gifts. But that's far from the only improvement he'll need to make.
"Exum's goal is simple," wrote Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune. "He wants to improve mentally and physically. He wants to improve his jumper. He wants to get better and more proficient at scoring in the lane and close to the rim."
Given his age, it's no surprise that Exum looked timid and raw his first time out. But this has to be a summer of serious growth. With tighter handles, a sharper shot, better awareness and more aggressiveness, Exum could take a massive leap toward his towering ceiling.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
