UFC 188 Predictions: Main Card Staff Predictions
The Octagon returns to Mexico City this Saturday at 7 p.m. ET for UFC 188. The pay-per-view event is headlined by a heavyweight match in which one of two champions will unify the title.
Cain Velasquez is a two-time champion in the division. He defeated Junior dos Santos to recapture his title back in 2012 and has since defended it twice. Injuries have limited his activity, but the champ remains one of the best mixed martial artists in the world.
Fabricio Werdum is the interim heavyweight champion. He defeated Mark Hunt for the honor last year, capping off a five-fight win streak with a second-round TKO. That victory came on the UFC's first visit to Mexico City.
Beyond the main event, UFC 188 features an additional four main card fights and a total of 12 overall.
Bleacher Report's team of some good prognosticators and some...struggling ones is here to give you their picks for the UFC 188 main card. It's Riley "Kingslayer" Kontek, Sean "Stormborn" Smith, James "Mother of Dragons" MacDonald, Scott "Hodor" Harris and Craig "Aegon" Amos back with their predictions for this monumental occasion.
2015 Records
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Coping with the state of things is difficult for me. In 2014, I proudly tied for first place with Riley Kontek, who has shown that he was no fluke. I have not demonstrated that same staying power.
I will sum up my emotional state with a little help from my friends.
But enough about me. Seriously, the less said the better. And speaking of better, nearly everyone else has been that this year. Only Scott Harris shares my misery and shame, as he is tied with yours truly for dead last.
James MacDonald holds down the top spot, but only by a hair. Riley is breathing down his neck, just a single pick behind. Sean Smith is a solid third, with a little work to do to catch those ahead. As long as he doesn't miss extensive time with an injury, he should avoid the cretins in the back.
- James MacDonald: 61-31
- Riley Kontek: 60-32
- Sean Smith: 57-35
- Craig Amos: 49-43
- Scott Harris: 49-43
Notice how I put myself above Harris. We go alphabetical when there is a tie. We do that now.
Anyway, let's get to the picks.
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
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James MacDonald
This should be a great fight to watch, but I would have preferred to see Henry Cejudo on the main card. That’s a minor quibble, though. Hill looked outstanding last time out and appears to have improved her takedown defence since her time on The Ultimate Fighter. Torres has lost some of the hype she had during her time with Invicta, but she’s still a top strawweight.
I’m actually on the fence with this pick. Hill is the more accomplished striker, but Torres has a more well-rounded game. My gut says Hill is going to cause the upset, but I’ll go with my head and pick Torres via close decision.
Torres, unanimous decision
Riley Kontek
It's surprising the ladies made it on the main card over Henry Cejudo, but this is a good one. This will be an exciting striking battle, as both Tecia Torres and Angela Hill are known for their stand-up prowess. Hill is less experienced than Torres and less skilled at this point, which is why Torres will outhustle her in every aspect to score another UFC victory.
Torres, unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Although Hill looked solid in her UFC debut win over Emily Kagan, she's facing a big step up in competition against Torres. Unbeaten outside exhibition bouts, Torres was picked by many to win TUF 20 for a reason. The Tiny Tornado will cruise against Hill and re-emerge as a serious strawweight contender.
Torres, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Hill has the sizzle, but Torres has the steak. Hill's muay thai is high-octane and fun to watch, but Torres has the solid, physical punch combinations. Hill is also prone to tiring and can have a tough time on the ground. Torres doesn't have those problems. Pretty open-and-shut case, I'd say.
Torres, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
It is clear that Hill possesses a ton of ability, but with only two pro fights to her credit, that talent will not manifest in a victory over Torres. The Tiny Tornado will take this one if she doesn't get caught up in too many exchanges.
Torres, unanimous decision
Charles Rosa vs. Yair Rodriguez
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James MacDonald
This is a fun contest. Rodriguez could have probably used a few more fights before being thrown in against a hot prospect like Rosa, though. The TUF Latin America winner is a good prospect, but he doesn’t have Rosa’s ceiling and hasn’t developed his game to the point where he can compete with him. Still, this fight should be fun while it lasts.
Rosa, submission, Rd. 2
Riley Kontek
If the UFC wanted to build up its TUF Latin America winner in Yair Rodriguez, it is certainly not making it a slow process. Instead of giving him a closer matchup where he could easily earn victory, the company throws him in against Charles Rosa, an up-and-coming featherweight with top-notch wrestling and a superior camp in his corner. Rodriguez will be a serviceable featherweight, especially when the UFC heads to Mexico again, but Rosa will make this a quick night.
Rosa, submission, Rd. 1
Sean Smith
Having put on a Fight of the Night performance against Dennis Siver before submitting Sean Soriano, Rosa has shown some potential inside the Octagon. A The Ultimate Fighter winner, Rodriguez has also displayed some promise. With more experience against tougher competition, Rosa will silence the Mexican crowd with a win in this battle between up-and-comers.
Rosa, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Rosa has looked darn good thus far in his two-fight UFC career. He choked out Blackzilian Sean Soriano in January and lost a cracker of a bout to Dennis Siver last fall. He'll keep it rolling in the right direction against Rodriguez, who will give him a nice fight but won't make it too close.
Rosa, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
The diplomatic thing to do would have been to give Rodriguez a gimme here, but Rosa isn't that. The visitor is the favorite, and for good reason. Rodriguez won't go down easy, but he'll fail to give the Mexican crowd something to roar about.
Rosa, submission, Rd. 2
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Kelvin Gastelum vs. Nate Marquardt
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James MacDonald
Marquardt looked decent last time out, but he doesn’t have much hope against a hungry, talented young fighter like Gastelum. The former Strikeforce welterweight champion has been on the slide for a long time. What’s more, I’m not sure I would pick him to win this one even if he was at his peak. Gastelum will outstrike the veteran and eventually earn the stoppage.
Gastelum, TKO, Rd. 2
Riley Kontek
This bout features two men in different parts of their careers. Nate Marquardt has already reached the peak of his career and represents the longtime veteran in this bout. Gastelum is the hungry, up-and-coming fighter who has yet to reach the pinnacle, which is hard to believe. A few years ago, this would have been Marquardt's bout to lose. However, Gastelum's development has come at an alarming rate, and he will be a top middleweight in no time. It all starts here.
Gastelum, unanimous decision
Sean Smith
It was unfortunate that Gastelum forced himself out of the welterweight division due to weight-cutting issues. He was making some good progress at 170 pounds. That said, he will use his wrestling to roll through a fading Marquardt and might convince the UFC to give him another shot at welterweight in the process.
Gastelum, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Not that I take any pleasure in it, but Marquardt doesn't have a prayer here. Gastelum is younger, stronger and more athletic, and Marquardt is not going to catch him in a submission like he did with James Te-Huna. Gastelum rebounds from that Tyron Woodley loss and notches the biggest "name" win of his young career.
Gastelum, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Gastelum gave an uninspired showing against Tyron Woodley, and it cost him his undefeated record. Marquardt, who is past beating guys in Gastelum's tier, is the perfect rebound fight for the still-promising 23-year-old.
Gastelum, TKO, Rd. 2
Gilbert Melendez vs. Eddie Alvarez
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James MacDonald
This is a matchup we’ve been waiting to see for a long time. It’s great that we finally get to see it, but it’s unfortunate that neither man has a ton of momentum. This is a fight for divisional relevance, and it should be closely contested. Alvarez is the trickier striker and has superior movement, but Melendez carries more power and is the better grappler. On that basis, I’m going to give the nod to Melendez. I won’t be shocked if it goes the other way, though.
Melendez, unanimous decision
Riley Kontek
Former Bellator champion versus former Strikeforce champion. This will be a good, competitive bout that will be in the running for Fight of the Night. Striking-wise, both men are on par with each other. Alvarez has the better movement and more power, so he will have the edge there. Melendez is the better wrestler, though we have seen Alvarez thwart takedowns in his Michael Chandler trilogy. Alvarez will finally prove his worth here, as Melendez continues to fall down the ladder a bit in a back-and-forth affair.
Alvarez, unanimous decision
Sean Smith
For a long time when they were champions in Strikeforce and Bellator MMA, a bout between Melendez and Alvarez was considered a dream matchup. Now, it's become a reality, and I couldn't be much more excited about it. This will be competitive from start to finish, but Melendez will earn the nod by a narrow margin on the scorecards.
Melendez, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
At this point, Alvarez has to prove he can hang with this level of competition. Like most people, I see a stand-up exchange ensuing here, heavy on solid combinations and violence but with no stoppage. At times this will evolve (or devolve) into a brawl, and Melendez will prove the tougher of the two men in those instances.
Melendez, unanimous
Craig Amos
For a long while, these two were the best lightweights outside the UFC. Now they finally meet inside the UFC. Melendez can hang in there on the feet and can use his wrestling edge to limit what Alvarez can do. He gets the nod here.
Melendez, unanimous decision
Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum
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James MacDonald
This is arguably the toughest test out there for Velasquez, short of a reinstated Jon Jones moving up to heavyweight. Because Werdum’s ground game is so prohibitively good, Velasquez may be forced to strike for the duration of the contest. However, he has the better striking. Werdum’s stand-up is consistently underrated, but the extent to which a below-par Mark Hunt outclassed him (up until Werdum landed the flying knee) is enough to make me give the lineal champion the edge.
Velasquez, unanimous decision
Riley Kontek
This is the closest heavyweight championship bout in recent memory. On one hand, you have a dominant wrestler with good boxing who has dealt with injury issues. On the other hand, you have a resurgent Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace with vastly improved striking who has been a buzz saw as of late. On the feet or the ground, this will be competitive. Considering the wrestling of Velasquez, he will use that to stay off his back and up on the feet, where he scores a close decision.
Velasquez, unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Werdum has become dangerous in all areas and is a legitimate threat to Velasquez. However, Velasquez's ability to decide where this bout takes place with his wrestling will be key. If he does have to take Werdum down, he has the grappling to avoid being caught, having never been submitted in his MMA career.
Velasquez, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
I'm a Velasquez mark to my core. Part of me can't help but ponder the possibilities of the newly wide-open matchmaking that a Werdum win would afford, but that's a small part. And it's even smaller now that Werdum made Velasquez mad with that "Mexican" comment. Takedowns, combinations, ground-and-pound, TKO.
Velasquez, TKO, Rd. 4
Craig Amos
No one can deny that Werdum has become a top-notch heavyweight or that at this point in his career he is a well-rounded fighter. But Velasquez is just so well-conditioned and talented that it is difficult to envision him losing to anyone right now.
Velasquez, TKO, Rd. 3
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