With More Than a Title at Stake, Warriors' Frontcourt Sputtering at Worst Time
CLEVELAND — This would seem no time for cute, not with all that's on the line. Still, since cute has become one of the Warriors' calling cards, with their popular nickname for their two most gifted players, it may be worth introducing another, less flattering moniker for the three others who fill out the starting lineup.
The Splat Brothers.
That's the sound Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green have made in the NBA Finals thus far, as their deficiencies have made matters much more difficult for the All-Star backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, as well as Golden State coach Steve Kerr.
Through three games in the Finals, the trio has combined for just 21 field goals on 66 attempts in 283 minutes. That's a ludicrously low rate of production and accuracy. The Cavaliers have essentially ignored them on plenty of possessions, overplaying Curry and Thompson early and leaving them alone, often behind the arc in the case of Barnes and Green, and even near the rim in the case of Bogut, who has treated the basket with the same disdain he typically saves for former coach Mark Jackson: He won't even look at it. Nor is the center serving his usual role as a solid, savvy setup man for others, with his assist average down from 2.7 in the regular season to 1.7 in the NBA Finals.
"I mean, he hasn't been at his best offensively," Kerr said. "We're really good when he's passing and moving at the top of the circle, and then also posting up and passing out of the low post. We've had moments of that during the series."
Not enough.
Nor have Green and Barnes made enough from deep to attract attention away from Curry and Thompson.
"Shots come and go," Kerr said. "I don't worry too much about whether guys are making shots. It's everything else that we can control."
Kerr referred to defensive effort, boxing out, ball movement. And while all of that is important, and must improve, it's hard to envision how the Warriors can regain control of the series—one they trail 2-1 entering Thursday night's critical game in Cleveland—if they don't get more from three guys who, in their own ways, helped them get here.
It's not as if these are the usual complementary pieces. Bogut was a No. 1 overall pick in Milwaukee, acquired for one of the league's perennial almost-All-Stars, Monta Ellis. Barnes, selected seventh overall in 2012, is about to receive a major extension for his development in Kerr's system. Green, after slipping to the second round, is expected to get a maximum contract this summer as a reward for his energy and versatility. And while no one of them is ever the Warriors' primary option offensively, they did contribute as relief options on that end in the regular season, averaging 11.7 points (Green), 10.1 (Barnes) and 6.3 (Bogut). In this series, they're in the same order, but down to 9.7, 7.3 and 3.3, respectively.
Their collective struggles convinced Kerr to turn to David Lee, the former All-Star who played only a dozen minutes in the entire Western Conference Finals. In 13 minutes, Lee scored the same number of points (11) as all three combined in Game 2. Lee is capable of doing so again; after all, the Cavaliers weren't completely caught off guard by his insertion Tuesday, and he still got where and what he wanted.
The problem is that the more Lee plays, the more the Warriors defense may regress. During the day to prepare for Game 4, the Cavaliers surely studied how to involve him in more pick-and-rolls that will expose his lack of quickness and awareness. And surely, Tristan Thompson will salivate every time he has an opportunity to compete with Lee for a carom.
Ideally for Golden State, at least two of the frontcourt's starting three will play up to their individual pedigrees, enough that they'll form an effective unit and Kerr won't be forced to stray prematurely from his preferred rotations. During the regular season, they played together in 63 games and were a plus-18.4 per 100 possessions, with lineups including them shooting an even 50 percent from the field. In the Finals, they are a minus-18.9 per 100 possessions, and lineups including them are shooting just 41.6 percent.
Would it help if Curry and Thompson got rolling earlier?
Perhaps, but that may become increasingly challenging if the Cavaliers continue to play with little fear of their three cohorts.
"It's been a rough start for us, pretty much all three games, to be honest," Bogut said.
Honesty is among the Aussie's attributes, and he exhibited it again when asked how he's performed.
"Not great," Bogut said. "I haven't played well. I'm looking to try and just come out and play hard and let the chips fall where they may. But I definitely know that I haven't played well."
He's only playing about half of every game, with Kerr matching up as the Cavaliers size down. Even so, when he's out there, he needs to offer more.
"I have to come out and be more aggressive," he admitted.
He said he would likely "look for my shot more," especially when Curry and Thompson "command so much attention" to allow him some easier attempts. Cleveland's strategy, as Bogut sees it, is fairly simple: blitz the guards while pre-rotating on the others, all in an effort to disrupt flow.
"And you've got to make a decision," Bogut said. "And usually it's swinging the ball to that weak-side corner. ... Early on in the game, we didn't really get going. And then we end up kicking the ball out, and the shot clock's down to eight, seven seconds, and then we create a lot of pressure on Steph and Klay to create a shot for us."
Even if the Warriors correct the way they've been counterattacking, however, they will probably still need Barnes and Green to confidently take their share of shots. Oh, and make a few, too.
Green has been bothered by back spasms, which may partially explain why he's gone 1-of-8 on three-pointers, but his Finals slip isn't just a blip; he shot 33.7 percent on three-pointers and is down to 25 percent in the playoffs. In this series, he's made just two of 20 shots from three feet out.
Barnes hasn't been much better, shooting 4-of-19 from three feet out.
When asked about the Warriors' slippage at Wednesday's media availability, Barnes, Green and Bogut all focused on passion and pace, and certainly those issues need to be addressed, because the Cavaliers are showing more of the first while invariably controlling the second.
Bogut noted how "they're beating us on loose balls," and warned "we can't just rely on our skill set and on our shooting ability to win a Finals series; we've got to match their physicality."
Barnes bemoaned how the Warriors are "kind of playing their style of basketball. They're kind of slow, half-court, isolation basketball, and we got into that. And that's not how we play. We're a fast-breaking, ball-movement-dominant team. And we get away from that, we just don't get the shots we're accustomed to getting."
Green, as usual, was the most animated, especially about all the times that Cavs players, particularly Matthew Dellavedova, have been first to dive to the floor. "It's effort," Green said. "I'm not sure why, but it's definitely the case. They're playing like a team desperate and needs something, and we are playing like a team that's not desperate and got something. And it's not the case."
They all noted that they'd been here before and climbed their way out, referring specifically to the second-round series against Memphis, which the Grizzlies ground down in Games 2 and 3 until, as Bogut put it, "we broke that one open. So hopefully we can do the same."
Green said he expected it to be easier to accelerate tempo now than it was then, even as LeBron James is masterfully milking the clock: "I think when you look at Memphis, they are probably the blueprint of a grind-it-out team. And if we can change the pace of them, then we can change the pace of anybody." He argued that all it will take is better defensive rebounding, which will ramp up the running.
It should be noted, however, that the numbers don't support all of the Warriors' perceptions, as least when it comes to the role pace played in their success in the second half of that Grizzlies series.
For the entire playoffs, the Warriors' pace has slowed from 100.69 possessions per 48 minutes in the regular season to 96.12 in the playoffs. That's normal, based on historical standards. And that's the pace the Warriors played in the two straight games they lost to Memphis. Contrary to their recollections, their pace actually slowed some in the next three they won. And they're playing at an almost identical pace in the first three games against the Cavaliers that they did in those final three wins against the Grizzlies.
So what was different then?
Simply, the supporting starters made shots at a better rate.
In those three wins against the Grizzlies, the trio of Bogut, Barnes and Green combined to shoot 38-of-80 for 92 points and were plus-33, plus-32 and plus-32, respectively. Again, against the Cavaliers, they've combined to shoot 21-of-66 for 61 points and are a minus-19, plus-2 and minus-15, respectively. Those numbers are much different than those Curry and Thompson produced during those two periods.
So there's no need here to get too cute in our analysis of what is needed for the Warriors to turn this series around.
It's simple.
More splash, from everyone—not just the backcourt that bears that nickname.
Much less splat.
All statistics courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Ethan Skolnick covers the NBA for Bleacher Report and is a co-host of NBA Sunday Tip, 9-11 a.m. ET on SiriusXM Bleacher Report Radio. Follow him on Twitter, @EthanJSkolnick.
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