5 Underrated NBA Draft Prospects Who Have X-Factor Potential
Drafting well is essential to sustained success in the NBA. And though top-tier talent rarely drops past the first handful of picks, finding value later in the draft can define a team's legacy. So unless you're Cleveland and you just happen to be the city closest to where a generational talent grew up and you lucked into three No. 1 picks and five top-four picks in a four-year span, you'd better draft well if you want to compete.
So I checked out three different mock drafts: Scott Howard Cooper's NBA.com Mock Draft 1.0, NBAdraft.net's mock draft and our own Chris Roling's mock draft from June 14. From those three drafts, I picked five "sleepers" who I think have a good shot at outperforming the given expectations based off their AMDP (average mock draft position.)
If you want to see what the expected value of each draft slot yields, check out 82games.com's very comprehensive NBA draft value chart.
1. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
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College: Arizona
AMDP: 19
The college basketball season ended a little early for Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The 6'7" sophomore just missed the Final Four for the second straight year. But RHJ was the best and most versatile defensive player for a team that, according to kenpom.com, ranked third nationally in adjusted defensive rating.
Hollis-Jefferson's job, for the most part, was to erase the opposing team's best offensive wing. And boy did he take that job seriously. Currently, the NBA Finals features zero extended playing time for big men with low-post abilities. It's an exhibition for athletic wing defenders who can switch on every screen and guard multiple positions. Hollis-Jefferson is tailor-made for this NBA style.
Offensively, he has one major hole. Per kenpom.com, he attempted just 29 threes this season and made only six. He'll have to improve his outside shooting to thrive in today's league. But in the meantime, Hollis-Jefferson has a role as a defensive stopper who can rotate through every position and crash the offensive and defensive glass.
If I'm a Western Conference playoff team, I'm crossing my fingers he doesn't drop to Houston at 18 or San Antonio at 26.
2. Jarell Martin
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College: Louisiana State
AMDP: 31 (Our mock draft only lists first-rounders, Jarell Martin is not projected to go in the first round according to Bleacher Report)
A 6'10" sophomore, Martin was abused by the LSU coaching staff all season. Per kenpom.com, Martin played 85.9 percent of the team's total minutes. He had a high usage rate for a team that played at the 14th-fastest tempo in the country.
But Martin rarely got tired, and he had one of his best games of the season in a 71-69 loss to Kentucky. He dropped 21 points and grabbed 11 boards against Calipari's harem of 7-footers. Conveniently, Draftexpress.com broke down his favorable matchup with protected No. 1 pick Karl-Anthony Towns here.
And if that doesn't get you excited, just check out his season highlights here. Martin is an athletic freak who can handle the rock and finish at the rim. He's already shown that he can play uptempo, NBA-style ball and that he can get a bucket by going one-on-one or by attacking the offensive glass. He'll be a steal in the late first or early second round.
3. Cameron Payne
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College: Murray State
AMDP: 12
A 6'2" sophomore shooting guard from the Ohio Valley Conference, Cameron Payne has risen on draft boards over the past couple of weeks. He finished the NCAA season ranked third in kenpom.com's player ratings behind national player of the year Frank Kaminsky and BYU's do-it-all swingman Tyler Haws.
Though his competition was noticeably weaker than that of the other players on this list, Payne's numbers jump off the page. Per kenpom.com, out of 2,184 eligible players, he ranked fifth in the nation in assist rate, 17th in usage rate and 165th in steal percentage. He played a ton of minutes for a team that finished 13th in adjusted offensive rating and at one point won 25 games in a row.
To truly thrive in the NBA, Payne will have to improve his three-point percentage (37 percent last season), but he has the offensive mind, athleticism and confidence to start as early as next season.
4. Willie Cauley-Stein
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College: Kentucky
AMDP: 7
Okay, this isn't much of a sleeper. Willie Cauley-Stein was the rock in the middle of (almost undefeated) Kentucky's defense. Per kenpom.com, he led the best team in the country in block rate, steal rate, effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage. However, he has been overshadowed recently by teammate Karl-Anthony Towns.
Stein is a true 7-footer with quick feet, extremely long arms and a lust for switching onto perimeter players. He is built to thrive in a league where centers just need to defend the pick-n-roll, set screens, alter shots, crash the glass and dunk.
Off the top of your head, who does Cauley-Stein remind you of? DeAndre Jordan? Tyson Chandler? Those guys are elite NBA centers who zero offensive responsibility aside from helping others get shots. Don't be surprised when Willie Cauley-Stein leads the league in point differential for a contender in four years.
5. Delon Wright
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College: Utah
AMDP: 24.7
Delon Wright is 23 years old. That is ancient for a draft prospect. He'll have to adapt to the NBA game quickly to be considered a smart draft pick.
But Wright fits the mold of the modern shooting guard. He's long, athletic and can handle the ball. His on-ball defense is impeccable. Per kenpom.com, he was near the top of the Pac-12 in nearly every statistic. He ranked first in offensive rating, fourth in true shooting percentage, second in assist rate, 14th in block rate, second in steal percentage and second in free-throw percentage.
It's extremely rare for a college player to excel at so many facets of the game—especially in a major conference.
Wright also has incredible endurance, playing nearly 84 percent of his team's total minutes at nearly 4,600 feet of elevation.
He doesn't have the high ceiling like some of the younger "NBA projects" out there, but Wright will enjoy a lengthy and successful career in the league.
