Lightning vs. Blackhawks: Preview, Prediction for Game 4 of Stanley Cup Final

The Chicago Blackhawks are in a tough spot after giving up Game 3 on home ice, looking at somewhat of a must-win scenario heading into Game 4 on Wednesday night at the United Center.

Nobody should be panicking just yet, but if the Tampa Bay Lightning are able to take a 3-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup Final with a chance to clinch in Game 5 at home, the odds of them earning one more victory over the final three contests—with two taking place at their rink—are historically in their favor.

Then again, the Blackhawks have been in nearly every situation possible over the past six postseasons, which means it's way too early to count them out of winning their third NHL title in that span.

Here's what to watch for in Wednesday night's tilt.

Lightning's Top Storylines

The Road Warriors

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The Lightning have home-ice advantage in the series but haven't exactly needed the comforts of home in these playoffs to get to the Stanley Cup Final. The Bolts won their fourth straight road game in Game 3, a 3-2 victory at the United Center in Chicago. They are 8-3 away from home so far in the postseason.

Interestingly enough, the team wasn't this strong in hostile arenas during the regular season, going 18-16-7 away from home in 2014-15.

Captain Steven Stamkos told Greg Beacham of the Associated Press that the team's commitment to defense is making the difference:

"

We didn’t have a great record during the season on the road. That was something a lot of people talked about. It’s just our willingness to play that tight checking game — knowing that if there’s limited scoring chances, we have the talent and the depth. If we get those one or two at the end, we can find a way.

"

Hedman in the Right Direction

A lot was made of Blackhawks defenseman Duncan Keith's stellar play in the opening rounds of these playoffs. It's Lightning counterpart Victor Hedman getting pumped up as a potential Conn Smythe Trophy winner now, though.

He was great in Game 3 with a pair of important assists, including the setup to Cedric Paquette for the game-winner on a Drew Doughty-like rush into the offensive zone late in the third period.

It was Hedman's second straight two-assist game in the Cup Final, and he has averaged more than 26 minutes per game over the three so far.

"I think he can control the pace of a game … I don't know if he's as smooth as Scott Niedermayer was, but he can move like him. He's four or five inches taller. He's a monster," said veteran Lightning forward Brenden Morrow, per Cam Cole of the Vancouver Sun. “We've got to see it and witness it for most of this season. The rest of y'all are getting to see it now.”

Hedman has even grabbed legendary Swedish defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom's attention.

"It's great to see him develop into the type of player that he had great potential of being. He's only 24 years old too, so he hasn't even hit his prime yet and he's playing like a veteran out there. That's been really enjoyable to watch," Lidstrom told Dan Rosen of NHL.com.

Bishop Looking Like King

Lightning head coach Jon Coooper told reporters that goalie Ben Bishop passed his eye test prior to Game 3, showing confidence in his ability despite an unknown injury that ultimately forced him out of Game 2.

But the eye test during the game showed a big goalie struggling at times to move laterally and even get to his feet after the play.

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Still, Bishop stopped a barrage of Blackhawks shots in the first period (18!) and finished with 36 stops in the 3-2 victory. He was good enough on shaky legs for the Bolts to get the leg up on the series.

The question now is whether he was lucky or good, and if the pain he's in will keep him from repeating the performance in Game 4.

Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville noticed the 6'7" backstop wasn't healthy.

“He looks like he’s got some issues,” Quenneville told reporters after Game 3. “But I think we still didn’t put enough pucks at the net.”

Blackhawks' Top Storylines

The Speedy Bolts attack vs. Tired Blackhawks Defense

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

The Blackhawks have essentially rolled with four defensemen throughout the playoffs. They might be down to the top three if Johnny Oduya can't suit up for Game 4.

The rearguard missed a big chunk of Game 3's second period and finished with just 16 minutes and 47 seconds of ice time after averaging more than 25 a night in these playoffs heading into the contest.

Quenneville spoke with reporters about Oduya's status on Tuesday. "I think he's alright," he said. "He looked alright today and we'll see how he is [Wednesday]."

The top four of Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Oduya averaged about 85 percent of the blue-line minutes before the final series and took up about 90 percent in the first two games of the Cup Final.

Former Anaheim Ducks assistant coach Dave Farrish suggested to Rosen that the long-term effects of these big minutes are finally starting to show:

"

Maybe this is the wearing down that we've been expecting all along. Maybe that is starting to happen at this point. I definitely think if they're helping their defensemen by trying to worry about them so much I think that's going to take away from their offense. They're going to have to live with what they've got.

"

The speed of the Lightning could prove to be too much for an even more short-handed Hawks back end.

Hawks Have Some History on Their Side

If it's seemed like the Blackhawks have historically improved as playoff series advance, the numbers seem to back that up.

According to Chicago Sun-Times writer Mark Potash, the Hawks have a record of 30-30 in Games 1-3 of playoff series under Quenneville. In Games 4-7, their record improves dramatically to 40-14.

Dave Sandford/Getty Images

During their last Stanley Cup run, the Hawks won three straight games in the second round against the Detroit Red Wings after falling behind 3-1 in the series, then won the Cup against the Boston Bruins with three consecutive victories following a 2-1 deficit.

In 2010, their previous Cup-winning season, they won three in a row against the Nashville Predators after dropping two out of the first three.

Oh, and this year, they were down 2-1 to the Anaheim Ducks after losing at home but pulled that series out of the fire as well.

This is where the Blackhawks' experience pays off.

“Obviously we don’t draw it up in some situations when we get down in a series; it’s not part of the plan,” captain Jonathan Toews told reporters. “But I think we have confidence when we get in those situations that we can take it one game at a time, focus on the next game, continue to put pressure on the other team.”

Silence of the Snipers

Jonathan Toews has one assist. Patrick Kane, nada. Patrick Sharp has one helper and Marian Hossa has three assists. Not a goal to be had in the series between the usually very dangerous quartet.

The Blackhawks are down a game to the team that scored the most goals in the regular season and is showing little sign of being completely shut down in the Cup Final. Frankly, the Hawks need to see more from their stars.

“We’re going to need our top guys to be productive,” Quenneville told reporters. “Like we always say, we don’t care who scores for our team. But they usually lead the charge.”

Prediction

With the pressure mounting and the opposing goaltender clearly hurting, the Blackhawks will come through with their best performance of the Cup Final so far and take advantage of the Lightning's limitations. The series goes back to Tampa tied at 2-2.

Blackhawks 5, Lightning 2