Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown

After a 600-plus-day absence, Cain Velasquez makes his return to the Octagon. And what a time to head back, now that there's a true challenger to his crown (a challenger not named Junior dos Santos, by the way).

Velasquez hasn't stepped into the cage since he last fought Dos Santos at UFC 166. He bulldozed right past Cigano for four-and-a-half rounds before a chaotic TKO finish. He drew a clear line between himself and the No. 2 heavyweight in the world.

We last saw Fabricio Werdum at UFC 180 last November against the Super Samoan, looking scarier than he ever has. He absorbed some heavy blows before landing a flying knee for the ages—especially for a heavyweight.

The two finally meet this Saturday after a last-minute fight cancellation of the title fight that almost was. It should be a closer fight than most are predicting, according to Odds Shark. Read along as we break the fight down from head to toe.

Striking

Reinhold Matay/Associated Press

This section will probably have quite a bit of controversy attached to it, but hear me out for a bit.

Velasquez has always been one of the better strikers in the heavyweight division. With his cardio and overwhelming strike output, he not only dethroned Dos Santos in a title rematch but also made sure people knew Cigano wasn't capable of reclaiming the title in a third fight. He moves forward, disrupting even the best strikers.

But Werdum has done much of the same lately. It may not be the same sort of output, but it's certainly a different level of striking—which counts for a lot in this breakdown. He's gone from being the guy who purposely lies down in a fight against higher-level strikers, to being a guy who moves forward and does damage against guys we thought to be higher-level strikers.

He was supposed to get knocked out by Roy Nelson, Travis Browne and Mark Hunt.

He didn't.

Edge: Werdum

Grappling

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Werdum might have the edge in grappling off his back, but there's no doubting Velasquez has the advantage in getting a fighter to his back.

It may not be the wisest path to victory for the champion, but in the rawest sense of the conversation, Velasquez plays second fiddle to no man in his ability to place a fighter in a commonly disadvantaged position. He did it over and over again to Dos Santos—a fighter well-known for his ability to stop a takedown. And he did it to Brock Lesnar—a fighter only known for his ability to control takedowns.

Werdum's always been pretty savvy at getting guys to the mat, but savviness won't get you the nod in this breakdown.

Edge: Velasquez

Submissions

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Frank Mir is probably the only other person in the conversation for the best heavyweight submission artist. He might be the only other fighter, regardless of weight class, really. With submission victories over the likes of Fedor Emelianenko and Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuira, Werdum has long since proved himself the most feared Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in MMA.

But it's not just his ability to slap an armbar on a guy who lacks the skill; it's his ability to do it from positions most fighters can't. The man was flat on his back when he locked in a triangle against a fighter we once colored invincible in 2010.

Edge: Werdum

X-Factors

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Velasquez: Cardio

Against all odds, the heavyweight champion of the world—all 240-plus pounds of him—has the best cardio in the business. He just moves forward, acting as a living nightmare to the masses of heavyweight fighters who succumb to the natural demands their hearts have for their larger bodies.

He's only had to go past the second round three times, but all opportunities were enough to motivate any challenger to try and get things done in the first two rounds when breaths are still short and hands are still kept high.

As the minutes keep ticking, his chances of winning go up. And in a five-round bout, that's not good for any challenger.

Werdum: Recent Experience

Velasquez hasn't stepped into the cage since Oct. 19, 2013. Werdum's fought twice since then. But it's not just the number of fights, as much as who he's fought since then. Heck, Werdum probably would've defended that title of his had Velasquez not been able to fight by July.

He's taken out two guys atop the heavyweight division in convincing fashion, proving himself a true champion (despite that "interim" bit). Werdum outstruck a faster, taller striker to earn his title shot before knocking out a stockier, harder striker to wrap that title around his waist just a few months later.

He can change his style to fit any other fighter. Meanwhile, Velasquez hasn't fought anybody outside of two Brazilian fighters in five years.

Prediction

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Again, Velasquez will have gone over 600 days since he last stepped into the cage. That's about three title defenses that he missed out on, all of which would have been in his prime.

It might be short-term memory, but this really feels like it could be Werdum's night. He's the better technical striker and has a greater ability to finish the fight once it hits the ground. And knowing both fighters, this fight will hit the ground at some point.

We've doubted this guy before, plenty of times. But that stops here. 

Prediction: Werdum via submission