UFC 188 Predictions: Can Cain Velasquez Finally Make a Splash in Mexico City?
Calling a "do-over" never felt so good.
Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum will finally meet to unify the heavyweight title on Saturday at UFC 188 in Mexico City. When they do, they'll make good on the fight company's longstanding plan to try to storm into Mexico's coveted fight market with Velasquez as its vanguard.
You may recall, this tandem was supposed to meet last November (at UFC 180, in Mexico City). Unfortunately, like seemingly all things involving Velasquez, those plans were scuttled by injury and Werdum won the interim title by beating Mark Hunt instead. The UFC, however, remained determined to put Velasquez in this spot, so here we are again—same city, same venue, same intended main event.
Even though we had to take a roundabout path to get here, Velasquez vs. Werdum is still the best heavyweight fight to make right now. As always, predictions are required. Here, Bleacher Report Lead Writers Chad Dundas (that's me) and Jonathan Snowden tell you how it's all going to go down.
Prediction: Cain Velasquez (Barely) Beats Fabricio Werdum
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Chad
I feel like UFC matchmakers are tempting fate a little bit here, what with all the bending over backward to get Cain Velasquez a pay-per-view main event in Mexico City. Historically, the MMA gods haven’t taken kindly to grand gestures and/or efforts by promoters to set their stars up with big-money showcase fights. See Randy Couture at UFC 46, Kimbo Slice and EliteXC: Heat or Fedor Emelianenko in any of his last three Strikeforce bouts.
Worries are compounded here by the fact Fabricio Werdum is a better fighter than he’s been given credit for leading up to this, the fact it’s been 20 months since we’ve seen Velasquez fight at all and the fact it’s been five years since we’ve seen him fight anyone besides Junior dos Santos or Bigfoot Silva.
I think a Velasquez victory is still the way to bet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Werdum provides some nervous moments. Maybe he lands some hard shots on the feet. Maybe he threatens with a sub attempt or two on the ground. In the end, Velasquez gets his hand raised, but we all come away wondering if he’s really as dominant as we’ve been thinking all these years.
Jonathan
We seem to be operating under the assumption that the Velasquez who will appear in the cage Saturday night is the same Velasquez who has dominated the division for the past several years. There are many reasons to suspect that won't be the case.
The truth is, it's hard to say what kind of fighter Cain is in 2015. It's been nearly two years since we've seen him fight at all, and those weren't 20 months spent relaxing and resting on his laurels. This is a man who has faced serious adversity and the kind of injuries that have derailed plenty of athletic careers.
It's hard to know exactly what will happen in the cage in Mexico City. It's certainly a bout, as you note, that's designed to see Velasquez emerge triumphant. But I think the UFC will, as it does, end up with some huevos on its face. This is too tough a fight after too much time off.
Instead of Velasquez invigorating the Mexican fans, I expect Werdum to make his case as the greatest heavyweight of all time.
Prediction: Interpromotional Dream Match Fails to Deliver
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Jonathan
In 2010, a fight between Eddie Alvarez and Gilbert Melendez would have been a pretty big deal. The two men, quite clearly, were the best lightweights in the world outside the hallowed UFC Octagon. Their promoters, Strikeforce's Scott Coker and Bellator's Bjorn Rebney, seemed down with co-promotional super bouts. This was a dream that had a real chance to come true.
Stars become superstars by beating fighters who matter. When you're scrounging for talent outside the UFC, those kinds of athletes are few and far between. Coker was having trouble finding competition capable of challenging Melendez. The same for Rebney and Alvarez. Why not combine powers for what would have been one of the most buzzworthy bouts of the year?
While the bout would have been a big risk for both, the reward was not insignificant. The winner would have, in one fell swoop, become the equal of any man the UFC could put forward in that weight class.
Alas, it was not to be. Talks fell apart and, as great fighters do, both men found their way to the UFC. And, now, to each other.
Five years have passed since we first considered this fight—half a lifetime in the world of mixed martial arts. Melendez, so dominant in Strikeforce, has lost two of his first three in the UFC. Alvarez, despite being just 31 years old, is entering his 30th professional prize fight.
Neither quite resembles the man he once was. They are older, slower and battle-worn, fighters on the way down the ladder rather than racing toward the top. Instead of a fight that will launch the next big thing at 155 pounds, I expect a fight that will do little more than keep one man's ever-dimming hopes alive. The other will be a bout away from matchmaker Joe Silva's guillotine.
It's a reminder to everyone involved that, in the sport of mixed martial arts, you have to strike hard and strike fast. If you wait too long, as we see here, hot can turn lukewarm in what feels like the blink of an eye.
Chad
Sure, both Melendez and Alvarez are playing through the back nine holes of once-great careers, but that seems like an overly gloomy outlook here. At the risk of jinxing it, this shapes up as a surefire crowd-pleaser—a full-hearted scrap between two high-level, high-intensity fighters who both need a win. As the co-main of a pay-per-view headlined by a heavyweight title unification bout? I'll take that walking away.
Besides, it's not as though either guy is completely shot. Melendez's two UFC losses both came in title fights, and Alvarez is actually 3-1 dating back to the dawn of 2012. With the 155-pound belt suddenly being passed around like a hot potato, it's not that much of a stretch to think the winner of this bout might see a title eliminator as his next booking.
We could hang our heads and kick the dirt because Strikeforce and Bellator didn't make this fight a few years ago, but I don't see much sense in that. We're getting the fight now, it's certainly still relevant, and it's probably going to be a barn burner.
Prediction: We Hear You Knocking, Henry Cejudo, but You Still Can’t Come in
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Chad
This is kind of an odd booking for Henry Cejudo in his second fight in the UFC flyweight division. Back in March, he took out former title challenger and No. 10-ranked 125-pounder Chris Cariaso by unanimous decision. This weekend he meets...No. 13 Chico Camus. Camus is coming off a split-decision win over Brad Pickett in his flyweight debut last November, but it’s tough to see how this represents a step forward for Cejudo.
We all have very high hopes for the Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. He seems like the sort of dude who might actually provide a competitive fight someday for dominant champ Demetrious Johnson. But thus far his flyweight career has been plagued by weight issues and—while he contends he’s put those problems behind him—it feels very much like he still has a lot to prove.
He’ll beat Camus on Saturday, maybe easily. Unfortunately, it won’t tell us much we didn’t already know about Cejudo. If he can consistently make weight, it’s time to put guys like Cariaso and Camus in the rearview mirror and start booking fights against top contenders.
John Dodson, Joseph Benavidez, Jussier Formiga and Ian McCall? Consider yourselves on notice. Cejudo needs a date with one of you guys before we can sign him up for a title shot against Johnson.
Jonathan
The real battle for Cejudo isn't his fight with Camus. With due respect, this should be a bout he wins with relative ease. He's a better fighter in all areas and the superior athlete to boot.
No, the struggle here will be with his own body. The UFC, smartly, is testing his resolve and his ability to consistently make 125 pounds before trusting Cejudo with a significant fight.
There's reason, of course, for its skepticism. Cejudo missed weight in both of his final two fights in the Legacy FC promotion, then pulled out of his UFC debut after struggling to hit the right numbers on the scale.
In December 2013, he finally made his UFC debut in the bantamweight class but after the fight decided he wanted to give flyweight one last shot. This is a part of that process.
Have no fear, Chad—if Cejudo can make it to the Octagon a second time as a flyweight, I don't expect you to have to wait long for him to make his presence felt in the division. His next fight will be one that puts him right in the mix for a shot at UFC gold.
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Prediction: The UFC's Strawweight Class Goes Through Some Growing Pains
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Jonathan
This UFC 188 card is a little weird from top to bottom, a result of the sport taking its first awkward steps onto Mexican soil. The promotion, for obvious reasons, has scoured its roster with a fine-tooth comb for Latino fighters—and that hasn't exactly resulted in a blockbuster show on paper.
One fight that really stands out, although not in a particularly positive way, is the strawweight bout between Tecia Torres and Angela Hill. The two, combined, have seven professional fights. Worse still, both are best known for losing efforts on The Ultimate Fighter.
Even considering the watered-down nature of today's UFC, that's an absurd fight for the main card of a pay-per-view, even one that has been left to wither and die like this one. But these kinds of growing pains are necessary to create a division worthy of the sport's major leagues.
No, Torres and Hill don't belong on the main card of UFC 188—but the UFC needs them there. In the long run, that's the only way to create fighters who deserve a place among MMA's best.
Chad
It’s kind of a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t situation for the UFC in handling its strawweights. If matchmakers put them on the main card, we complain they don’t belong there. If matchmakers put them on the undercard, we complain the 115-pounders aren’t getting the exposure they deserve.
Considering the circumstances, I actually like Hill-Torres as a PPV curtain-jerker. These are two aggressive, technically undefeated fighters who are likely going to have a fast-paced brawl to kick off the for-pay portion of the card.
Torres came into TUF with a lot of hype and then underperformed. Hill came in with almost none, but since the end of the show she’s gone 2-0 in the UFC and has become one of the company’s more entertaining and outspoken forces on social media.
If Torres wins here, it’ll keep her on the ascent in the strawweight Top Five and begin to demonstrate that her TUF showing could’ve been a Chris Leben-style fluke. If Hill wins, it’ll prove she can hang among the best at 115 pounds.
Those are stakes I understand, in a fight with people I know.
In this day and age, that’s all we can hope for.
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