Buy or Sell: What the Washington Capitals Should Do with Pending Free Agents

Despite another postseason heartbreak at the hands of the New York Rangers, the 2014-15 Washington Capitals certainly have a lot to build on after a surprisingly successful campaign. 

Some of that was due to the arrival of Barry Trotz, who transformed what was once a suspect defensive squad into a group that bought into his systems at both ends of the rink, and the results speak for themselves. 

And clearly the Caps benefited from sterling seasons out of the team's two best players in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, who lead the NHL in goals and assists in 2014-15, respectively. 

But the work that then-first-year general manager Brian MacLellan did on the free-agent market in July of 2014 can't be overlooked, as it netted two top-four rearguards in Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen. 

However, the long-term deals handed out to the pair of former Penguins leave the Caps with precious little salary-cap space, which means some fan favorites likely won't be in D.C. come opening night this October. 

Heading into what will be an all-important summer for the Capitals, here's a look at what the team should do with its most coveted pending free agents going forward.

Braden Holtby

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Out of every player on this list, Braden Holtby should present the easiest decision, as MacLellan absolutely cannot afford to even let another team attempt to sign his franchise goaltender to a restricted free-agent offer sheet.

Sure, the Capitals can match any offer presented to Holtby, but getting the former fourth-rounder's signature on a multiyear extension has to be priority No. 1 this summer.

Recently, team play-by-play man Joe Beninati wondered aloud to CBS Baltimore about whether Holtby would receive a short-term deal that would result in him being an unrestricted free agent sooner, or a long-term deal along the lines of a five-year, $30 million contract.

From the Capitals' perspective, the latter would be preferable, because after posting career-best numbers across the board (including finishing second league-wide in shutouts and fifth in goals-against average), Holtby seems to have arrived as an elite NHL starter.

According to Hockey-Reference.com, Holtby's Goalie Point Share of 14.4 in 2014-15 sits second in Capitals history behind only Olaf Kolzig's 14.6 during his Vezina Trophy-winning campaign in 1999-2000. 

He was arguably Washington's most consistent performer during the 2015 postseason, and given the franchise's inability to find a reliable starter since Kolzig's departure in 2008, Holtby is the present and future for the Caps in net. 

Verdict: Buy. Given the contracts doled out to fellow No. 1 goaltenders such as Corey Crawford ($36 million over six years) and Ben Bishop ($11.5 million over two years), expect Holtby to receive at least $5 million annually regardless of the term.

Eric Fehr

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Since rejoining the Capitals after a stint with the Winnipeg Jets, Eric Fehr has been everything Washington could want out of a bottom-six forward.

In 2012-13, Fehr transitioned from the wing to center, and while the results were mixed at first, the former first-rounder's quietly become a consistent producer at both ends of the ice during the last three seasons.

Averaging 15 goals and 32 points over his last two full seasons, Fehr could arguably produce more if receiving more than the sub-15 minutes of ice a night, but as Alex Prewitt of the Washington Post reported, the converted pivot would like to remain in Washington.

Fehr's 52 percent success rate on faceoffs in 2014-15 was a career high, and that put him second among all Capitals centers that took more than 400 draws behind only Backstrom.

According to War-On-Ice.com, Fehr's Goals Per 60 ranked first among Washington's full-time centers, and after counting just $1.5 million against the cap in 2014-15, the 6'4" pivot is worth retaining, even if he's due for a bit of a raise.

Verdict: Buy. Fehr's a solid third-liner, and if injuries arise, the 29-year-old's got the hands and shot to provide valuable secondary scoring. As ESPN.com reported, Fehr should be ready for the beginning of the 2015-16 season despite his recent elbow surgery, and who knows, maybe that'll decrease his market value just enough for MacLellan to retain him for a couple of years at roughly $2 million a season.

Marcus Johansson

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Despite failing to reach the 50-point plateau thus far in his young NHL career, Marcus Johansson has established himself as a quality secondary scorer in D.C., and at first glance, it would seem like a no-brainer to keep him in the fold. 

That's because 20-goal scorers don't grow on trees, and at 24, it's reasonable to assume the Swedish Olympian's best offensive years have yet to come.

But Johansson's benefited quite a bit from his surrounding cast, as No. 90 has racked up 36 of his 91 points while skating with the league's best power-play unit. Johansson's skill and passing acumen have made him a solid contributor on the man advantage and among Washington's top nine, but is he irreplaceable? 

The answer is no, particularly due to the postseason performances of Kunzetsov and Andre Burakovsky, which is why the former first-rounder's days in Washington could be numbered. 

Johansson's coming off a season that saw him post a career-high Corsi For Percentage of 53.1 despite getting the lowest percentage of offensive zone stars of his five-year career. But the playoffs have been a different story for Johansson, as he's managed just three goals and nine points in 35 games during the team's last three postseason runs. 

As a restricted free agent, Johansson could garner an offer sheet if the Caps fail to re-sign him (which is certainly a possibility depending on how much Holtby receives), but even if not, he could be a valuable trade chip. 

Johansson's been among the team's most versatile forwards but hasn't truly established himself as a quality No. 2 pivot, and if Washington's on the market for a first-liner to skate with Ovechkin and Backstrom, Johansson could be dangled as bait. 

Verdict: Sell, if the right offer comes about. It seems logical that the Caps are prepared to extend a qualifying offer Johansson's way. However, if Washington is gearing up to make a play for Chicago's Patrick Sharp or another top-flight scoring winger, Johansson would be a solid centerpiece with which to build a package around. 

Evgeny Kuznetsov

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If there was a breakout star during Washington's 14-game postseason run, it was definitely Russian dynamo Evgeny Kuznetsov.

He's long been touted as a potential game-breaker for the Caps, and while he started slowly, Kuznetsov finished the regular season among the league's top 10 in points and assists by a rookie and only got better during the playoffs.

Against the New York Islanders in Round 1, Kuznetsov single-handedly gave the Capitals a Game 5 victory with two goals and three points in a 5-1 win, but his Game 7 performance was even better.

Late in the third period with the score knotted at one, Kuznetsov manufactured one of the most memorable goals of the 2015 postseason, shimmying around multiple Islanders and traversing across the offensive zone to roof the series-winning marker with just over seven minutes to play.

It's that type of poise, confidence and pure offensive talent that made the former World Junior Championship MVP a top prospect, and given his postseason production, things will only get better from here.

Oh, and the rookie finished first among all regular Capitals in PDO (which measures on-ice save percentage plus a team's on-ice shooting percentage while during a player's time on ice), and again, this was his first season in the league.

Verdict: Buy. Players with Kuznetsov's offensive abilities simply don't come around often, and even if he costs more than $2 million a year as a restricted free agent, that could be a bargain if he's able to serve as Washington's No. 2 pivot.

Joel Ward

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​When Joel Ward was signed to a four-year deal worth $12 million in the summer of 2011, George McPhee was investing in a player coming off a 10-goal, 29-point season with Nashville.

But McPhee didn't sign the hard-charging winger based on his regular-season production, as Ward had just completed a postseason campaign that saw him post seven goals and 13 points in 12 games. 

And to his credit, Ward's supplied the Caps with the sort of clutch scoring that McPhee had hoped for, as he's racked up 18 points in 35 playoff contests since then. ​

More importantly, Ward's come through when his team's needed him most. In 2012, he beat Tim Thomas to eliminate the defending Stanley Cup champs from Boston in Game 7. This year, the trend continued, as he scored the game's opening goal in Game 7 against the Islanders and tallied the buzzer-beating game-winner in Game 1 versus the Rangers. 

In addition, Ward's postseason Points Per 60 of 2.41 was by far the highest of any Capitals skater during the team's 14-game run, which indicates that the undrafted forward makes the most of his chances.

Unfortunately for the Caps, the 34-year-old's regular-season production has made him one of the year's top unrestricted free-agent targets, as he's averaged better than 20 goals and 40 points over the last two seasons. 

Verdict: Sell, unless a sizable hometown discount comes into play. Ward is absolutely worth retaining at the right price, but term may be a bigger issue for MacLellan. At 34, Ward's most productive seasons are likely behind him, and with precious little cap space, a two-year deal worth $3 million annually may be the best the Caps can offer. At this point, Ward's sure to have more lucrative options, though few will be with franchises capable of making deep postseason runs. 

Mike Green

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​This decision will be the most difficult for MacLellan to make, and that's almost always the case when determining the future of a longtime fan favorite that still brings value to the table.

But that's where he stands with Mike Green, who has gone from being Washington's unquestioned No. 1 defenseman to a third-pairing option with power-play capabilities.

According to NBC Sports' Jason Brough, Green's made it clear his first choice would be to remain with the only NHL franchise he's ever known. Unfortunately, given his pedigree, it'll be very difficult for the Caps to match the type of offers Green will likely garner on the open market.

And maybe a parting of ways is the optimal outcome for both parties, as Green would be conceivably able to slot into a leading role on a team in need of a puck-mover, and the Caps could begin to groom younger rearguards to fill the void created on the third unit.

Yes, Green benefited from facing comparatively weaker competition, as his 2014-15 Corsi For percentage (51.8) was the highest it's been since 2010-11 (as per War-On-Ice.com), but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Coming off a deal that saw him make $6 million a season, Green's 10 goals and 45 points in 2014-15 warranted his salary, but his lowest even-strength ice time since his rookie season does not.

Simply put, he's a two-time Norris Trophy runner-up who is still just 29, and he deserves more than the Caps can afford to pay him—which will be a lot less than he received on his previous contract.

Verdict: Sell. Green's still among the league's most dangerous offensive threats from the back end when playing with confidence, and there's sure to be a team in need of experience and skill out there (Edmonton, Buffalo or Calgary come to mind) willing to pay him more than $6 million on a longer-term deal. Replacing Green won't be as easy, but with John Carlson and Matt Niskanen in the fold, losing the former All-Star won't leave the gaping hole it once would have.

 All stats courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.