Low-Upside 2015 NBA Draft Prospects Who Shouldn't Be Overlooked
The word "potential" gets thrown around way too much in the NBA draft.
Sure, every player is going to improve as he gets older, but players should not get knocked for being closer to a refined product once they hit the draft. In fact, a study I did last year suggested that when you take out the top five picks, players who entered the draft after their junior or senior years have been more productive pros.
These "low upside" guys often provide better value in the late first round or second round than projects who leave school before they're ready. Through talking to scouts and college coaches, here are seven low-upside guys who have a chance to be success stories based on where they're likely to be drafted.
Frank Kaminsky
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If Frank Kaminsky had been a stud in high school and put up the kind of season he had as a senior as a freshman, he'd likely be the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Instead, he was a late bloomer who was a bench guy his first two years in school and blossomed into the toughest guy to defend in college basketball.
The ideal big man to draft these days is one who can score and create from all over the court. Kaminsky already does that at a high level. He shoots the three, handles and passes the ball like a guard, and can score with his back to the basket with a treasure trove of post moves and counters.
"He's the most skilled guy in the draft," an NBA scout recently told Bleacher Report. "His numbers are off the charts when you look at efficiency. His background is impeccable as far as what you want."
The question with Kaminsky is whether his abilities will translate to the next level. But I'd be willing to take my chances on a guy who is 7'0" and went for 20 points and 11 boards against Kentucky's pros.
Jerian Grant
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Notre Dame coach Mike Brey gave Jerian Grant a lot of freedom to make plays and decisions, and Grant rewarded him by captaining one of the best offenses in college basketball.
"The thing that he has working in his favor is that system is pretty NBA-friendly," a scout told me in February. "They put him in a lot of pick-and-rolls. He's charged with getting the ball on the run and kicking it out to guys. He's going to have some base of knowledge coming in right away."
Grant is the point guard who is most mentally ready for the NBA game right away. He was a fifth-year senior this past season and has already shown the ability to overcome adversity—he was booted from school as a junior and returned to take Notre Dame to the Elite Eight.
This past season erased any character doubts, and another scout called Grant a "really safe" pick. At 6'5", he has the ability to play both guard spots. At Notre Dame, he would pick and choose his spots to be an aggressive scorer, and if need be, he could fit a scoring role off the bench in the NBA.
That's why "safe" is a good description of Grant. No matter the system, he's the type who will figure out a way to fit in.
Montrezl Harrell
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The great thing about Montrezl Harrell is he knows who he is and has never tried to be anything different.
Harrell became one of the most productive big men at Louisville by simply outworking other bigs and becoming a really good finisher who could capitalize on playing next to talented guards who created. He showed off the ability to knock down a perimeter jumper, and Louisville would give him the occasional opportunity to score with his back to the bucket, but he made his living rebounding and getting energy buckets. He was good with that.
"He can be a Kenneth Faried type guy right way," a scout told me a week ago. "He's pretty safe. He's maybe a starter on the right team."
Harrell is undersized (6'7" without shoes), but he's the perfect guy for a team in the 20s who is simply looking to bring in a bench guy who will provide energy, defend and rebound.
Michael Frazier
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Michael Frazier was a three-point specialist in college, and that's exactly what the NBA team that picks him will be searching for. There's no envisioning Frazier as more than what he is. He took 73.2 percent of his field-goal attempts from beyond the arc in his three years at Florida.
Frazier's best season with the Gators was his sophomore year when he was surrounded by veterans and all he was asked to do was shoot and defend. His three-point percentage took a dip this past year to 38 percent, but he was a 43.2 percent three-point shooter for his career. The fact that he was comfortable (and at his best) playing with better talent is a good sign.
He is not just a spot-up shooter either. He showed the ability at Florida to run off screens. The success of guys like Kyle Korver should help the stock of someone like Frazier. He's a professional shooter, and his shot should give him a chance to hang around the league for a long time.
T.J. McConnell
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T.J. McConnell was one of the best leaders and perimeter defenders in college basketball. He also played a solid point guard. Two or three years ago, that combination of strengths might not have gotten him drafted, but...
"People are seeing what Matthew Dellavedova has been able to do," a scout told me recently. "He has a lot of similar traits."
Dellavedova was also known as a terrific leader at Saint Mary's and a guy who just knew how to play. He went undrafted two years ago, but he has had two productive years in the league and played a big part in Cleveland's playoff run.
The one thing Dellavedova can do that McConnell hasn't quite shown is shoot from distance. Dellavedova was a 37.8 percent three-point shooter at St. Mary's and has been even better (38.8 percent) in the league. McConnell was a 38 percent three-point shooter for his college career, but he never made more than 39 threes in a season—Dellavedova averaged 72 threes per year in college—and McConnell shot just 32.1 percent this past season.
So there are doubts about his jumper. But I have no doubt that, like Dellavedova, McConnell can defend at the NBA level, play a solid backup point guard and be a terrific presence in the locker room.
Alan Williams
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Alan Williams is a throwback for the NBA—an undersized big man who gets by on strength and rebounding.
With the success of Draymond Green, many teams are going to be looking for undersized 4s, but not exactly in the mold of Williams. Playmaking 4s are in demand.
Williams still has a shot to get drafted because his advanced stats at UC Santa Barbara got the attention of scouts, particularly his rebounding numbers. He ranked second in defensive rebounding percentage this past year and ranked as the best offensive rebounder as a freshman and fifth-best as a sophomore, per kenpom.com.
"He has a shot because scouts who have been around for a while remember Paul Millsap and Kenneth Faried, really good rebounders who are undersized," one scout told Bleacher Report a week ago.
Millsap and Faried also had strong advanced rebounding numbers at small schools. Williams showed at the NBA combine against mostly high-major players that he can rebound at any level, averaging a combine-best 11 rebounds. He also averaged 11.5 points and was the only player at the combine to average a double-double. His scoring will not likely translate to the next level, but his rebounding should.
Aaron White
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Aaron White is another player who should benefit from the success of undersized 4s, and he's closer to fitting the criteria of a playmaking 4.
White used his quickness and craftiness to become one of the most efficient scoring forwards in the country. He's not a great ball-handler or shooter, but he's competent in both areas. He was just too quick for other 4s to guard him on the perimeter. He thrives at getting to the free-throw line—800 attempts in his career—and shot 81.9 percent at the line last year.
White also thrived running the floor and played in an uptempo system at Iowa. A few years ago, he may have been labeled a tweener, but on the right team, he could be a valuable asset off the bench in a spread-and-kick uptempo attack.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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