Duke Basketball: Reasons for Optimism in 2015-16

Ahhh, the summer after winning a national championship, how refreshing for Duke fans.

A year ago the program was reeling after losing in the round of 64 for the second time in three years. The loss sent the fanbase into a summer of doubt and questions. Can Duke succeed with one-and-done players? Will Quinn Cook spend his senior year sitting on the bench behind Tyus Jones? Can Coach K still make in-game adjustments to give Duke an edge?

The players jelled easily and the coaching staff had a strong season, making all the doubters look silly on the way to Duke’s winning it all in 2014-15 (especially those who thought Cook would be a non-factor).

While the thrill of watching your team win a championship is unmatched, the feeling of accomplishment that settles in during the offseason and the inevitable optimism about next year can be just as pleasing.

After losing its top four scorers, Duke went through a couple weeks uncertain of how its team would look in 2015-16. But a strong late push in recruiting that landed Derryck Thornton and Brandon Ingram has fans breathing easy as summer heats up. Duke will bring in another stellar and top-rated class of freshmen, and they are not the only reasons for Duke fans to be optimistic heading into next season.

The Coaching Staff Is Intact

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Two years ago Chris Collins left the Duke bench to take the top job at Northwestern, and after the 2013-14 season Marquette hired Duke assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski as its head coach. For a short time, it seemed like Jeff Capel would become the third associate head coach to leave in three years as he was being courted by Arizona State. Fortunately, Capel decided to stick around Durham, and Duke will return its entire coaching staff.

Capel is a huge asset both on the court coaching and on the trail recruiting, where he has helped Duke topple Kentucky for the top group of recruits in the past two classes. He is the only assistant to have previous head coaching experience and can draw on having coached Blake Griffin at Oklahoma when dealing with all the young hot-shot recruits the Devils have been bringing in.

With Coach K getting older, Capel’s decision to stay may have been a sign that he is first in line whenever the job becomes vacant. If he is, the program will be in good hands for years to come.

Veterans Who Know How to Win

Despite losing four stars from the championship team, Duke will return some key contributors.

Grayson Allen became a household name with his scoring barrage against Wisconsin in the championship game. He will have to carry high expectations going into next year considering he averaged only around four points per game last season, but it’s hard not to get excited about his play after the combination of shooting and athleticism he showed in the Final Four.

Allen ended the season with all the headlines, but Duke probably would not have gotten to that point were it not for Matt Jones’ performance against Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. Jones scored 16 points, including four timely three-pointers, and had the steal and layup that sealed the victory. Jones has already proved himself as a shutdown defender and will likely step into a bigger role offensively next season.

Amile Jefferson scored only two points in the championship game, but his impact on the defensive end was obvious. After Jahlil Okafor picked up his fourth foul, Jefferson was inserted into the game to defend National Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky. While Allen was carrying Duke offensively, Jefferson made the fun possible with his stout defense.

Jefferson stayed positive and focused throughout the season, even though his role decreased through no fault of his own. Jefferson was performing just fine as the starting power forward, but putting Justise Winslow at his position allowed Duke to surround Jahlil Okafor with four perimeter players who could provide better spacing.

Jefferson’s team-first attitude and leadership should help set the tone for next year’s team. If the team allows Jefferson to lead as this past season’s group did with Cook, the team will have the right mental makeup needed to fight through adversity.

Recruiting for the Future Is Looking Good

While it took until well after the season for Duke to land its prized jewel in the class of 2015—Ingram—Duke may land its top target in the 2016 class before the college basketball season even starts.

Jayson Tatum, the third-ranked recruit in the class of 2016 per 247's composite rankings, recently said that he is down to two schools and will make his choice in the next couple of months. Tatum did not announce which two schools he is choosing out of his final four—Duke, Kentucky, UNC, and St. Louis—but many believe he is down to the Blue Devils and his hometown Billikens. If Tatum commits to Duke, fans will not have to worry what will happen if Ingram, and perhaps Allen, declare for the NBA draft after next season. 

Tatum has also mentioned being part of a package deal with 5-star power forward Harry Giles (No. 2 in the composite rankings), who is from Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and Dennis Smith Jr (No. 4), who hails from Fayetteville, North Carolina. Many believe that bringing Thornton to campus has made it unlikely Smith would come to Duke, but you never know how college rosters will look from year to year these days.

If Duke lands just one of these players it will be a force in 2016-17, but bringing another elite duo or trio in will make the Devils sure to stay near the top of the polls for at least the next two seasons.

Unless noted otherwise, all recruiting info courtesy of 247 Sports.