Cavaliers vs. Warriors: Analysis, Predictions for NBA Finals Game 1
If the 2015 NBA Finals looks as good in practice as it does on paper, it will be well worth the record-setting break required to reach this point.
The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers spent the past several weeks separating themselves from the rest of the pack. When these two basketball behemoths collide in Thursday's Game 1, the league's elites will open a best-of-seven battle for the game's premier prize.
Each club follows an MVP leader inside the lines and a rookie signal-caller on the sideline. Both made quick work of their conference peers to get to this stage, compiling a combined 24-5 record through the first three rounds. These teams have overwhelmed opponents with offense and dominated at the defensive end.
And each side is backed by a success-starved fanbase. The Dubs haven't celebrated a world title since 1975. The Cavs' next championship parade will be their first.
As current MVP Stephen Curry steps inside the ring with four-time MVP LeBron James, the star power is bodybuilder-strong. Will the Warriors put the ultimate ending on their dream season, or can the hobbled-but-resilient Cavs follow King James to victory on the game's grandest stage?
| 1 | Thursday | June 4 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland | ABC |
| 2 | Sunday | June 7 | 8 p.m. ET | Oakland | ABC |
| 3 | Tuesday | June 9 | 9 p.m. ET | Cleveland | ABC |
| 4 | Thursday | June 11 | 9 p.m. ET | Cleveland | ABC |
| 5* | Sunday | June 14 | 8 p.m. ET | Oakland | ABC |
| 6* | Tuesday | June 16 | 9 p.m. ET | Cleveland | ABC |
| 7* | Friday | June 19 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland | ABC |
Key Storylines
Can the Warriors Rely on Their Secondary Scorers?
The Dubs know they have an incendiary offensive weapon in Curry. He's cleared the 25-point mark in nine of his 15 postseason games and averaged 29.2 points on .461/.437/.820 shooting during this playoff run.
There's no question whether Golden State has a go-to scorer or who that player is. But the question marks start surfacing as the team moves down its offensive pecking order.
Klay Thompson's playoff run has been a mixed bag. He's been held below 19 points six different times and failed to convert 43 percent of his field-goal attempts during eight of his 15 outings. He was also only recently cleared for Game 1 after suffering a concussion in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
If Curry's Splash Sibling can't find his range, the Warriors need support scorers such as Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala to pick up the offensive slack. The trio has put points on the board this postseason (combined 33.3 points per game), but it hasn't posed much of a threat from long range (combined 29.6 three-point percentage).
Assuming the Cavs can force the ball out of Curry's hands, he'll need reliable recipients on the receiving end of his passes. With James looming in the opposite corner, Golden State must have more than one offensive weapon to slay this battle-tested dragon.
Is Cleveland's Defense Ready for This Challenge?
The Cavs' rise as a defensive juggernaut dates back to January. That's when the 30-year-old James recharged his battery during a badly needed two-week sabbatical, and the team used a pair of trades to tighten their defense on the perimeter (Iman Shumpert) and interior (Timofey Mozgov).
Cleveland hasn't looked the same since. The Cavs entered the All-Star break tied for 22nd in defensive efficiency. They moved into a tie for 13th after the midseason classic, and they have kept climbing the category's rankings in the playoffs. Cleveland has surrendered just 98.5 points per 100 possessions during the postseason, a mark that would have ranked second overall in the regular season.
But the Cavs are no longer facing the offenses they held in check on the Eastern Conference side of the bracket. The Warriors' rotation is filled with willing passers, floor spacers and just enough dribble-drive threats to capitalize on any blown defensive assignment.
Kyrie Irving has never been the most trustworthy defender, and now he's said the tendinitis in his left knee will prevent from being 100 percent "unless something miraculous happens," via Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. If the Cavs keep him away from Curry, they could move him all the way to Harrison Barnes—a matchup where Irving would be giving up five inches and more than 30 pounds.
Cleveland could lose its safety net if Golden State's small-ball lineup forces Mozgov off the floor. The Cavs also can't afford to have J.R. Smith lose focus away from the ball, and James' chances to play rover will be limited due to Golden State's depth.
Obvious Adjustments Each Team Must Make
Golden State: Take Care of the Basketball
When the Warriors are rolling on offense, their players and the ball fly around at a frenzied pace. When this team runs into trouble, that wild movement doesn't stop.
The buildup is the same full-throttle attack on either side of the coin. The only difference is in the results.
"When we were with [Steve] Nash in Phoenix, we used to call it organized chaos," Warriors assistant coach Alvin Gentry said, via ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne. "We wanted it chaotic. But we wanted a discipline and a system they could fall back on within that chaos."
The Dubs never stray too far from potential disaster. Their unpredictable approach and fluorescent-green shooting light keeps opposing defenses under constant stress. But this carefree style can also produce some careless mistakes, as evidenced by Golden State's playoff-high 15.7 turnovers per 100 possessions.
Cleveland could have trouble compensating for the absence of Kevin Love and Irving's limitations in the half court. The last thing the Warriors want to do is help their opponents find their rhythm by feeding the Cavs' transition attack with costly giveaways.
Cleveland: Stay Glued to Golden State's Snipers
Curry and Thompson are accurate enough marksmen that they can beat good defense with better offense. When either sharpshooter finds his rhythm, they can make any attempts to contain them look futile.
But defenses give themselves a puncher's chance at slowing the pair's production by keeping constant pressure on both. Allowing open three-pointers to the Splash Brothers is essentially conceding points. To wit, Curry and Thompson are a combined 89-of-186 from distance (47.4 percent) this postseason when they have at least four feet between themselves and their closest defender.
The Cavs have no greater defensive task this series than limiting the number of open looks Curry and Thompson can find. Unfortunately, that hasn't exactly been a strength of this defense.
"According to SportVU, the Cavs have contested just 29.7 percent of their opponents' jump shots in the playoffs, a rate which ranks 11th out of 16 teams," wrote NBA.com's John Schuhmann. "Furthermore, the average distance for the closest Cleveland defender on opponent shots in the playoffs is 4.25 feet, a rate which ranks ninth."
Those numbers aren't nearly good enough to survive this series.
X-Factors
Golden State: Harrison Barnes
Barnes was once held in arguably a higher regard than anyone on this roster. But the former No. 1 prospect has become something of a forgotten piece in the Warriors' arsenal.
He doesn't get a ton of attention for his offense, despite shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from distance during the regular season. And his defense isn't valued the same way as Green's, even though the former is nearly as versatile as the latter.
"He guarded Zach Randolph last series, he guarded James Harden this series," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said of Barnes, via ESPN.com's J.A. Adande. "How many guys in the league can do that?"
Barnes is a critical piece of the Warriors' puzzle. That's going to be obvious early in this series. He'll likely get the first crack at defending James, and Barnes seems as good a choice as any to fill the No. 3 scorer's role.
He showed how potent he can be with 24 points in Golden State's series-clincher against Houston. The Warriors won't always look his way on the offensive end, but when they do, they'll need to see consistent results.
Cleveland: Kyrie Irving
Irving doesn't fit the mold of a typical X-factor.
He's not a feast-or-famine wild card. He's a former No. 1 pick, three-time All-Star and career 21.0-points-per-game scorer.
But he's not healthy, and it's hard to say when—or even if—he ever will be in this series. That's why Cleveland has no idea what to expect from a player who served as its franchise face before James' homecoming last summer.
"Whatever we can get from Kyrie is a plus," James said, via Bob Finnan of the News Herald.
As a dangerous spot-up shooter alone (48.1 three-point percentage this postseason), Irving can prevent the Warriors from overloading on James. But the more Irving can add as an offensive creator and perimeter defender, the higher Cleveland's upset chances climb.
Key Matchup
LeBron James vs. Everybody
Hopefully you haven't made the mistake of taking James' greatness for granted during this playoff run. This has been some of the finest work of the future Hall of Famer's career.
He has basically willed the Cavs back to the NBA Finals. He's leading the club in nearly every category on the stat sheet: points (27.6), rebounds (10.4), assists (8.3), steals (1.8) and minutes (40.7). He's squeezing every possible ounce of production from a supporting cast featuring streaky contributors (J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Matthew Dellavedova) and limited ones (Mozgov, Tristan Thompson).
The challenge for James grows exponentially harder from here. He's putting his solo act up against a team that led the league in defensive efficiency and field-goal percentage against during the regular season.
But this test is no easier on the Warriors' end. They have a slew of athletic, intelligent, long-limbed defenders to throw in his path, but none are guaranteed to bother him.
"They all have a weakness the 6'8" James can exploit," wrote Bay Area News Group's Marcus Thompson II. "Barnes isn't savvy enough defensively to thwart a talent like James. Iguodala has the savvy but gives up at least two inches and 30 pounds to the King. Green has the strength to resist James, but James has a quickness advantage."
The Warriors have to figure out how much help they want to send James' direction. His prolific scoring seemingly demands a double-team, but his expert court vision makes that a risky proposition.
Golden State enters this series with a deeper, healthier team, better credentials and home-court advantage. But Cleveland has the planet's best player on its side, and he's already steered his team to some remarkable things.
Prediction
Including the playoffs, the Warriors have hosted 49 games at Oracle Arena this season. They have won 46 of those contests.
They'll add a 47th to that tally on Thursday night. Golden State's defense is too powerful for one player to dismantle on his own. James Harden piled up 28.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game last round, and the Warriors still sent his Rockets to a swift five-game exit.
Harden isn't quite as lethal as James, but the King might not have the same caliber of supporting cast. Give LeBron a healthy Love-Irving duo, and that conversation obviously changes. But Cleveland in its current state appears as a bunch of role players surrounding one elite force.
It takes more than that to topple the Dubs, particularly on their home floor. Ultimately Golden State's combination of talent, depth and health will be too much for Cleveland to overcome.
Prediction: Golden State 104, Cleveland 95.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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