NBA Finals 2015: Odds Guide, Top Stars and Championship Series Predictions
The NBA couldn't have asked for a better matchup in the Finals than Cleveland vs. Golden State. It sounds odd because neither team plays in a massive media market, but in terms of sheer star power, it's hard to do better than what will be on display starting Thursday.
LeBron James is the sport's biggest star, Stephen Curry is the league's MVP and they are joined by young stars like Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson to bring together this perfect marriage of the present and future era of basketball.
The Cavaliers and Warriors also have the potential to provide the most entertaining NBA Finals among this year's crop of playoff teams. Golden State had the league's best record overall (67-15), while Cleveland has the league's best record since January 15 (34-9), per Rich Exner of the Northeast Ohio Media Group.
Those storylines and others set up the NBA to reap the benefits of a classic series headlined by the league's two best players. Here's all the pre-Finals information to get prepared for tip-off of Cleveland vs. Golden State in Game 1.
Series Odds
| Golden State Warriors | 10-19 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 33-20 |
| Cavaliers in sweep | 18-1 |
| Cavaliers in five | 12-1 |
| Cavaliers in six | 5-1 |
| Cavaliers in seven | 6-1 |
| Warriors in sweep | 8-1 |
| Warriors in five | 7-2 |
| Warriors in six | 4-1 |
| Warriors in seven | 13-5 |
Series Predictions
Kyrie Irving Will Be the Most Important Player
Whether the Cavaliers win or lose this series, there's little doubt that James will be their best player. He's done as much in 14 playoff games so far as he ever has, averaging 27.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game.
That worked just fine for Cleveland going through a weak Eastern Conference that included a Boston team under .500 and an Atlanta team that was so beat up by the time it got to the conference finals it hardly resembled the group that won 60 regular-season games.
Now, going against the league's most complete team, the Cavaliers need their second superstar to play up to his potential. Irving's knee kept him out for two games against the Hawks, though he did return in Game 4 to score 16 points in 22 minutes.
The bad news, per Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group, is Irving's knee isn't coming along as quickly as anyone hoped during the week-long layoff:
"The tendinitis in his left knee hasn't healed in a timely fashion, limiting his participation in practice. Cavs coach David Blatt says he has been forced to hold him out of portions of practice in an effort not to overwork his knee.
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Irving said nothing will keep him from playing and he's receiving around-the-clock treatment to make sure that holds true.
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The Cavaliers aren't a dynamic offensive team without Irving, which is a problem against Golden State. The Warriors are a force of nature with the ball in their hands, averaging an NBA-high 110 points per game during the regular season, according to ESPN, so Cleveland has to score a lot of points to keep up.
However, it's Golden State's defense that can cause a lot of problems. Jack Ross of the San Francisco Examiner listed all the ways head coach Steve Kerr's team excels at stopping opponents from scoring:
"The Warriors led the league in opponents field goal percentage (42.8 percent) and defensive efficiency (98.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) in the regular season. They followed these trends by leading all West teams in opponents field goal percentage on shots within five feet of the rim (53.0 percent, second to the Chicago Bulls in the league).
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The Cavs defense is going to be talked about before this series, as it's tied for the fewest points allowed per 100 possessions in the playoffs, but the level of competition has to factor in—name one great or even good offensive team they've played thus far.
The Warriors had to go against an excellent Memphis team, which was held under 90 points per game during the series, and held MVP runner-up James Harden to less than 20 percent shooting in two of the five Western Conference Finals games.
In the one game James played against the Warriors this season, a 110-99 win in February, he had 42 points and 11 rebounds. Irving was the only other Cleveland player with more than 16 points, dropping 24 and going a perfect 10-of-10 from the free-throw line.
The Cavaliers need that kind of effort over the course of this series if they are going to win their first championship in franchise history.
The Overlooked Heroes
As much as the stars like James, Curry, Irving and Thompson are fun to talk about, the Cavaliers and Warriors are here because of the unsung heroes who have stepped up when their team needed it.
Tristan Thompson went from being just another player on the Cleveland roster to suddenly looking like one of the most sought-after impending free agents. Matt Moore of CBS Sports broke down how Thompson's defensive acumen was shining in the postseason during the series against Chicago:
"Opponents are shooting 1.9 percentage points worse with Thompson guarding them in the playoffs, despite Thompson taking many of the tougher assignments. Opponents are 3-of-14 in the post vs. Thompson in the postseason. Vs. the Bulls, the Cavaliers [were] -12.3 with Thompson on the bench, plus-9.6 with him on the court and their rebound percentage jumps eight percentage points with him on the floor.
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The Warriors have their own defensive stalwart in Draymond Green, who is more apt to make a play on offense than Thompson. The former Michigan State star is averaging a double-double in the playoffs (14 points, 10.8 rebounds) and got the most first-place votes in Defensive Player of the Year voting. (San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard won the award.)
Going deeper into the rosters for both teams, the Cavaliers have performed better without James on the floor than the Warriors have without Curry, even though both teams have been surprisingly good, per Grantland's Zach Lowe:
"The Cavs have outscored opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions with LeBron on the bench in the playoffs. The Warriors are a fat plus-5.4 by that metric without Curry. Those numbers are shocking, considering how badly these teams wilted in the regular season without their MVP candidates.
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That does speak to how far both teams have come since the season started, which is how teams go from being merely good to on the cusp of a championship. J.R. Smith has been a hero for Cleveland, shooting 39.6 percent from three-point range.
Harrison Barnes found life for the first time in his career in 2014-15, and that has carried over to the playoffs with 11.3 points and five rebounds per game with a shooting percentage of 46.3 in 12 contests.
The stars have to carry most of the load over the course of a series to give their team a chance to win, but individual games will be determined by moments involving the role players like Barnes, Smith, Andre Iguodala and Matthew Dellavedova.
The Winner
All of the discussion leads to making a prediction. A win by Cleveland would be an amazing sports story because of James coming home, leading this often-maligned franchise to a title in his first year back and ending the city's 51-year major-sports championship drought.
Even though the Warriors are trying to break their own 40-year title drought, few sports cities have gone through the full gamut of emotions over the years like Cleveland.
Unfortunately, sometimes the ideal narrative doesn't have the perfect conclusion. Golden State is an overall better team and healthier than Cleveland at this point. Irving's recovery from the knee problems doesn't sound encouraging, though that's not going to keep him from playing.
James was worn out at times against Atlanta, memorably falling to the ground at the end of Game 3. He's not shooting well in the postseason at 42.8 percent overall and 17.6 percent from three-point range.
It's not as though the Warriors are without injury concerns. Thompson's status for Game 1 is a mystery as he works his way back from a concussion suffered late in Game 5 against Houston. He did return to practice on Monday and told the Associated Press (h/t Yahoo Sports) he expects to be cleared by Thursday.
But the health questions facing Golden State are considerably less than Cleveland at this stage. The Warriors have also been the league's most complete team since the season started and have the benefit of playing a maximum of four home games where they've lost just three times in 49 contests (postseason included).
Golden State is the NBA's best team right now. It's been building to this moment since last year after firing Marc Jackson and hiring Kerr, even if no one expected the evolution to come this quickly. The Warriors will cap it off with the franchise's first title since 1975.
Warriors win in six games.
Stats via Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
