Should New York Knicks Reach for Trey Lyles at No. 4 in the 2015 NBA Draft?
There is the concept of a draft-day reach, and then there's the notion that the New York Knicks would roll the dice on Kentucky's Trey Lyles with the No. 4 pick during this year's selection extravaganza.
Slipping to fourth in the lottery order has opened the speculation floodgates in New York. There is no consensus player on which the Knicks can rest their hopes. They are at the mercy of the three teams in front of them—Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers—and won't have a definitive idea of who's even available until they're actually on the clock.
In the meantime, the round-ball universe is left to read tea leaves, cuddle with crystal balls and navigate a labyrinth of anonymous source-speak, all the while trying to decipher the "likely" from the "unlikely" and the "inevitable" from the "never, ever going to happen."
Cue the Knicks' interest in Lyles.
A source told the New York Daily News' Frank Isola that team president Phil Jackson and friends are "enamored" with Lyles. Does that mean the Knicks will draft him at No. 4 overall? Isola suggests that it's possible, noting that "crazier things have happened."
But this particular reach is too crazy for the Knicks.
For starters, Lyles isn't a top-five prospect. He isn't even projected as a top-10 talent. To say he's a top-15 lock would be a stretch as well.
Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has him going at No. 20 to the Toronto Raptors in his latest mock. Here's a look at all the names New York must bypass in order to roll with Lyles:
Now, the Knicks' interest in Lyles overall isn't ridiculous. They're on the prowl for an interior presence, as Jackson has made clear in advance of the June 25 selection shindig. And with both Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor expected to be off the board at No. 4, the Knicks must turn their attentions elsewhere.
At 6'10", Lyles projects as an NBA power forward, though he could certainly soak up minutes at the center position. Not the most athletic prospect, he has an incredible touch around the basket; he shot 74.4 percent at the rim in his lone season at Kentucky, according to Hoop-Math.com.
Lyles doesn't yet boast three-point range, a borderline prerequisite for power forwards in today's NBA. But there's hope he'll eventually develop some. He shot 73.5 percent at the charity stripe last season, which is typically a good indicator of whether a player can expand his offensive comfort zone.
More than 52 percent of his made two-point field goals were jumpers as well, per Hoop-Math.com. He also flashed actual three-point touch on occasion, stepping out behind the arc 29 times as a freshman. Only four of those trips proved successful.
This interest isn't unsubstantiated either. Chris Herring of the Wall Street Journal reaffirms what Isola's source posits:
By Lyles' own admission, he already had an opportunity to speak with Jackson at the draft combine in Chicago. As he told SNY.tv's Adam Zagoria:
"It was cool. He came to one of our [Kentucky] practices earlier this year and just to be able to sit down and have a chance to be asked questions by one of the greatest coaches in basketball history was cool for me and it was a good interview I think.
They were just trying to learn more about me as a person. They’ve seen me play and all that stuff so they know what I’m capable of doing. It was just more about them getting to know me as an individual.
"
The Knicks' affinity for Lyles, then, isn't up for debate. They like him. That's a fact.
Here's the thing: He still isn't worth the No. 4 pick.
Most of Lyles' offensive value lies in his ability to create space off the ball around the basket. And while that's a commodity in Jackson's triangle offense, its emphasis on working from the inside out increases the importance of post-ups.
Though Lyles showcased some polish with his back to the basket at Kentucky, his exposure to those sets was limited. As CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie previously wrote:
"Lyles also is known as a good post-up player, even though he wasn't utilized there often this season due to his role. In limited possessions there (36), Lyles scored over one point-per-possession (placing him in the 92nd percentile of all college players), shot 50 percent, and got fouled one-fourth of the time. His smooth, fluid athleticism and terrific body control in conjunction with his length shows up well here. Particularly, watch for the drop step on the left block as well as his ability to get to the middle of the lane due to his quickness.
"
Thirty-six possessions, however promising, aren't enough to guarantee he'll thrive with even more touches at the NBA level. In the event they are enough to convince the Knicks of his post-up ceiling, they don't nullify the gaping voids in Lyle's play on the other end.
Coach John Calipari didn't use him as a defensive linchpin. He seldom asked him to body up in the paint or defend stretch 4s, and Lyles' 2.1 block percentage isn't anything special. Seventy-four NBA players matched or exceeded that mark last season, including guys such as Marreese Speights and Jared Sullinger, who aren't even kind-of-sort-of known for their shot blocking.
Any big the Knicks select at No. 4 has to be the foundation upon which they build their defense. They ranked 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions last season and only survived the rim-protection test because their shoddy three-point defense invited volume three-point shooting. Lyles isn't the player around which they can assemble a top-10 points-prevention unit.
More than that, Lyles isn't a universal draft-day reach candidate. The Knicks aren't a part of some bigger rumor. Other teams are not valuing Lyles in the same vein as them.
It would be wholly ignorant of Jackson to select Lyles at No. 4 knowing New York stands alone. It makes more sense for him to capitalize on the dearth of interest in reaching for the 19-year-old, as Basketball Insiders' Tommy Beer so eloquently points out:
If the Knicks believe without a shadow of a doubt that Lyles is their guy, they would trade down for him. End of story.
Engaging teams outside the top 10 allows them to get their guy while simultaneously acquiring a veteran impact player or two who helps them compete for a playoff spot in the enfeebled Eastern Conference next season.
But general manager Steve Mills is already on record as saying the Knicks won't move down the draft board if they strike a trade, per NJ.com's Nick Powell. Reeling in as many established players as possible would be the primary goal in that scenario.
Knowing that, New York's reported fascination with Lyles is all the more confusing.
That, as Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey proposes, may be its end game:
Decoys are draft-season staples. Teams aren't about to pull the curtain back on their plans for rival front offices to see and subsequently plan around. The NBA is a business—a competitive one. Any advantage, seemingly negligible or otherwise, counts.
Secrecy is especially important leading up to the trade deadline, the draft and free agency, when roster turnover reaches fever pitch. And that's why no team is ever linked to one name ahead of the draft, even when a certain player is deemed the obvious pick.
Aside from the three biggest names—Okafor, Towns and D'Angelo Russell—the Knicks themselves have already been tied to Emmanuel Mudiay, Willie Cauley-Stein and Justise Winslow, according to Zagoria and ESPN.com's Chad Ford.
Each of those players, by the way, is a consensus top-10 pick, making the Knicks' crush on Lyles an outlier. But, again, their interest in him isn't on trial.
Whatever the Knicks' first impulses may be, they cannot keep the No. 4 pick only to use it on Lyles, a promising prospect who, on his own, just isn't worth such an invaluable rebuilding tool.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
