Cavaliers vs. Warriors: Full Schedule, Odds and Predictions for NBA Finals 2015
Basketball withdrawal is beginning to strike as fans wait for the 2015 NBA Finals.
In a hurry to end the conference finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers swept the Atlanta Hawks while the Golden State Warriors disarmed the Houston Rockets in five. Those quick clinches earned each championship participant a week of rest and preparation before the final stage.
The break ends Thursday, when the Oracle Arena hosts Game 1 of an NBA Finals featuring two franchises hungry for a title. Odds Shark currently likes the Warriors to get the job done during the best-of-seven slate.
| 1 | Thur., June 4 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Golden State Warriors | 9 p.m. | ABC |
| 2 | Sun., June 7 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Golden State Warriors | 8 p.m. | ABC |
| 3 | Tue., June 9 | Golden State Warriors | Cleveland Cavaliers | 9 p.m. | ABC |
| 4 | Thur., June 11 | Golden State Warriors | Cleveland Cavaliers | 9 p.m. | ABC |
| 5* | Sun., June 14 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Golden State Warriors | 8 p.m. | ABC |
| 6* | Tue., June 16 | Golden State Warriors | Cleveland Cavaliers | 9 p.m. | ABC |
| 7* | Fri., June 19 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Golden State Warriors | 9 p.m | ABC |
| Warriors | 10-19 |
| Cavaliers | 33-20 |
Finals Predictions
Low-Scoring Games
A series featuring several stars and an MVP on each side carries a certain set of expectations. With LeBron James and Kyrie Irving on one end and the Splash Brothers occupying the other, viewers will anticipate points, and lots of them.
Sorry to disappoint, but Cleveland and Golden State have bolstered two of the premier postseason defenses. Golden State, which allowed an NBA-best 98.2 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, sports a 98.9 playoff defensive rating.
Cleveland, which had a below-average defense during the season, enters the Finals with a 98.5 defensive rating through three rounds. Opponents have shot 28.1 percent from three-point range, although the Cavaliers only needed to deal with Kyle Korver for two games.
As noted by NBA.com's John Schuhmann, Cleveland's defense jumped from No. 26 to No. 13 once Iman Shumpert joined the rotation. Acquiring the guard from the New York Knicks salvaged a drowning unit, which Shumpert took pride in saving when discussing the transformation with Cleveland.com's Chris Fedor:
"We have hung our hat on the defensive end since we've been put together. The better and better we have gotten on defense, the better we have gotten on offense. We make things easier for each other and we put less pressure on ourselves on the offensive end. I think that's what makes our offense flow better.
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The games also won't be track meets, despite Golden State's inclination to up the tempo. After leading the league in pace this season, the Warriors took their foot off the pedal, ranking sixth with 96.63 possessions per 48 playoff minutes. Against two of the league's slowest teams in the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies, they slowed down and traded punches.
An offense with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving should run smoothly, but Cleveland holds the league's slowest playoff pace. While this isn't going to look like the '90s Knicks or last decade's Detroit Pistons, don't expect these teams to hit triple-digits every game.
James Won't Carry Cleveland to Championship
After straining his back for years, James' second Cleveland go-around was supposed to play out differently. Instead, he's again carrying a colossal burden, registering a 36.4 usage rate this postseason.
A natural facilitator, James has instead attempted 24.9 shots per game, dropping him to a 42.8 field-goal percentage. Continuing to struggle mightily from three-point range, he has generated an unimpressive 49.2 true shooting percentage, an adjusted measure of efficiency that weighs threes and free throws.
Then again, Cleveland never ran a crisp offense during the season. ESPN Stats & Info foreshadowed trouble if the club continues its isolated ways:
Not having Kevin Love to spread the court only makes matters worse. James will have a hard time dominating Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala, and Irving also relies too heavily on isolation, given the stifling team defense that awaits the Eastern Conference champions.
FiveThirtyEight's Neil Paine concluded that, despite the Cavaliers' in-season reinforcements, they remain one of the NBA's most star-dependent Finals representatives:
"If we look at a multi-year Statistical Plus/Minus talent projection for every NBA Finals team, this Cavs team ranks as the ninth-least talented NBA finalist since 1985. (By contrast, Cleveland’s opponents, the mighty Golden State Warriors, rank as the 14th-most talented.) Remove James, and things get even more dire; his supporting cast ranks as the third-worst team carried by its best player to the NBA Finals since 1985.
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Along with the season stats all strongly favoring Golden State, Cleveland's elite three-point defense will prove tough to sustain against Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Deep shooting fluctuates, which means Cleveland likely benefited from average shooters going cold.
Maybe the Cavaliers can buy a victory or two that way, but not four. Too much depends on James having a transcendent series, and he'll more than likely produce terrific numbers with not-so-terrific efficiency instead.
All advanced statistics courtesy of NBA.com.
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