NBA Draft 2015: Mock Draft Projections for Safest Lottery Prospects

Unlike last year's vaunted class, the 2015 NBA draft profiles as a top-heavy class with few premium prospects beyond the top handful of selections.  That's no indictment, but rather an indication of how difficult it is to unearth a true game-changer, even with a lottery selection.

Many teams have spent premium picks on raw bundles of upside, but those players evolve into Hasheem Thabeet as often as they do Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Teams with a low base of talent often have no choice but to gamble, which places other organizations in position to nab players with a higher career floor, even if their ceilings aren't nearly as enticing.

Examining the lottery landscape, there's a variety of players who earn the safe label, whether as likely All-Stars or underrated role players.  Mocking the entire first round, here's a look at three of the safest lottery prospects, with an eye on best team fits for each of these players.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Minnesota Timberwolves	Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky
2	Los Angeles Lakers	Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
3	Philadelphia 76ers	D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
4	New York Knicks	Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
5	Orlando Magic	Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
6	Sacramento Kings	Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
7	Denver Nuggets	Mario Hezonja, G, Croatia
8	Detroit Pistons	Stanley Johnson, F, Arizona
9	Charlotte Hornets	Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
10	Miami Heat	Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
11	Indiana Pacers	Myles Turner, C, Texas
12	Utah Jazz	Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas
13	Phoenix Suns	Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
14	Oklahoma City Thunder	Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame
15	Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets)	Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
16	Boston Celtics	Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
17	Milwaukee Bucks	Montrezl Harrell, PF-C, Louisville
18	Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans)	Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
19	Washington Wizards	Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
20	Toronto Raptors	Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
21	Dallas Mavericks	Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
22	Chicago Bulls	Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
23	Portland Trail Blazers	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona
24	Cleveland Cavaliers	Delon Wright, PG, Utah
25	Memphis Grizzlies	R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
26	San Antonio Spurs	Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
27	Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets)	Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia
28	Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers)	Cedi Osman, PG, Macedonia
29	Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks)	Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville
30	Golden State Warriors	Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke

In the race for the No. 1 pick, Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns has established a little bit of breathing room from the Duke center.  As the most versatile big-man prospect, Towns possesses the clearly higher ceiling, which will likely have him off the board first overall to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

And yet, the Los Angeles Lakers or any team attempting to trade up will surely have no problem taking the most polished low-post offensive player in this class.  The 6'11" center is everything one could want offensively, with nimble footwork, a soft touch around the rim and a wide variety of post moves.  Okafor's 66.4 percent effective-field-goal percentage was third in the nation, per Sports-Reference.com.

However, there are questions about his defense, as his motor runs hot and cold on that end.  Okafor was also surprisingly mediocre at rebounding, and his 51 percent free-throw percentage could leave him vulnerable to hacking strategies.  Consequently, there are whispers that the Lakers aren't necessarily locked into Okafor if he falls to them at pick No. 2, according to Dave McMenamin of ESPN:

There's a strong chance that Los Angeles is simply doing its predraft posturing, but barring a huge trade bundle, it's hard to justify passing up the rare big man who can still serve as the fulcrum of an offense.  Okafor would instantly goose any team's offense, so if the Lakers are really amenable to a trade offer, expect plenty of calls.

Best Fits: Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks

Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona

In a class light on game-changing wings, Arizona's Johnson could emerge as a top-10 pick due to his well-polished skill set.  As the 6'6" forward told Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus, he potentially has the strength and lateral agility to guard up to four positions:

"

In today’s day and age, it’s about defensive versatility.  How many people you can guard and how well you can do it. I can guard fours. I can guard Draymond Green. I can guard Kawhi Leonard.  I can guard Mike Conley — I can stay with him at least. You guard people in stints, I can definitely stint the minutes for sure.

"

Johnson isn't necessarily as athletic as Justise Winslow or Mario Hezonja, his main competition for the top wing prospect.  However, the former Wildcat should be no worse than an excellent three-and-D type, with a relentless on-ball style on defense and a 37.1 percent three-point shooting percentage during his lone season in Tucson.

Though he's unlikely to crack the top five, Johnson could be a nice fit for teams in the latter half of the top 10 picks.  Moreover, given the high translatability of his skill set, Johnson should be able to play right away, making him a nice fit for teams looking to rebound quickly and re-enter the postseason picture.

Best Fits: Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat

Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin

The gangly center doesn't profile as a surefire lottery selection because of his inferior athleticism, but, man, those collegiate numbers are impossible to ignore.  Although Kaminsky will be challenged in terms of strength and defensive acumen at the pro level, his offensive game is so complete and technically polished, from his post-up moves to his three-point range.

Rarely does a four-year senior generate NBA buzz, but Kaminsky's improvement at Madison was also an extremely rare occurrence.  After serving as a middling benchwarmer his first two years, Kaminsky exploded with a starting role, turning into the nation's most improved player during his career:

The advanced metrics would also disagree with the scouts in this instance.  As a highly informative statistical deep dive by Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn illustrates, Kaminsky averaged the most points per possession in post-up situations while also revealing himself as the best passing big man available:

"

As Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote this week, defensive evolutions in the NBA are making "playmaking fours"—guys who can spot-up shoot but also make things happen off the bounce—more in-demand. Which bodes well for Frank, because it's exactly what he did this season at Wisconsin.

Among the power forwards and centers likely to be drafted in 2015, Kaminsky had the most assists per 40 minutes, pace-adjusted, and he was the only big man with a positive Pure Point Rating—a John Hollinger-developed stat that assesses playmaking with this formula: 100 x (National Pace/Team Pace) x ([(Assists x 2/3)-Turnovers] / Minutes).

"

Kaminsky might never be a star who plays heavy minutes, because it's hard to imagine him developing into an average or better defender.  However, he should be no worse than a versatile offensive spark plug off the bench.  In a league where spacing is king, Kaminsky is a highly valuable asset who should have no issues carving out a meaningful role.

Best Fits: Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz