NBA Draft 2015: Latest Predictions and Buzz for Key Players
NBA teams have applied their vast resources to finding the next wave of talent that will carry them into the next era of basketball. On June 25, all 30 franchises will begin the process of securing their future when the 2015 draft takes place.
This year, it feels like anything can happen right out of the gate. The Minnesota Timberwolves own the top selection and have a difficult choice between Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor. It does speak to the inability to define a clear-cut No. 1 talent, but also to the small gap between those two gifted stars.
Since there are still more than three weeks to go before draft night, speculation about what can happen is coming fast and furious. It's too early to make a definitive statement about where players will go, though the buzz does provide a template to see which direction teams are leaning if things fall correctly.
Is D'Angelo Russell Key to Figuring Out Draft?
Today's NBA is built on athletic guards who can create their own shot and get teammates involved. Stephen Curry, James Harden and Russell Westbrook are three names that immediately jump to mind as standouts among today's young stars.
Yet every year around draft time, the names that always rise down the stretch are big men like Towns and Okafor. That's not a bad thing, just an observation about how teams still fall into the "tall guy" trap that plagued a franchise such as Portland twice (Sam Bowie, Greg Oden).
This year, however, it seems there may be a small shakeup near the top, with Russell moving into the mix for Los Angeles at No. 2.
According to Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Russell is a virtual lock to go in the top three because Philadelphia wants him if the Lakers pass:
"The Los Angeles Lakers plan to bring in Russell along with centers Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor for workouts. The Lakers haven’t ruled out using the second pick on Russell, a point guard out of Ohio State.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to draft Towns or Okafor with the first overall pick. With the pressures of having to add a towering presence, there was a thought that the Lakers would feel forced to select the leftover post player. As a result, Russell would be there for the Sixers to draft at No. 3.
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The Lakers' apparent interest in Russell may be more than just usual draft posturing to drum up interest in some kind of trade. They got a solid rookie season from Jordan Clarkson, who averaged 11.9 points and 3.2 rebounds per game.
Clarkson may not have the same offensive potential as Okafor, nor is he a defensive wizard like Towns, but he already has one solid year under his belt and the Lakers can use an explosive guard who can create his own shots to ease the burden on Kobe Bryant.
The Lakers are more than one big man away from competing for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Bryant is only going to be around for so long—if you believe Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak, it will only be one more year—meaning the future has to be in place before he walks away.
Russell was a dynamic talent at Ohio State and has clearly made an impression on teams at the top of the draft. It would still be a surprise if whichever big man doesn't go No. 1 (Towns or Okafor) didn't end up in Los Angeles, but Russell has given the front office something to think about.
Knicks Exploring Other Options at No. 4
It wasn't hard to feel the New York Knicks front office deflate after the lottery gave them the fourth pick. The simple solution for the franchise's problems would have been to plug in Okafor or Towns in the middle, but since it's unlikely either gets to New York, plans had to change.
The consensus since the draft order was set has New York taking point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman had the Knicks taking the star point guard in his post-lottery mock with Dan O'Brien offering this analysis:
"The 6'5" prodigy is one of the riskiest commodities in the lottery, but his physical tools and playmaking potential are irresistible. A small sample of play in China was intriguing enough to earn top-five draft stock."
However, latest word from New York could see team president Phil Jackson and Co. looking for a big man and/or strong defensive player. Here's what ESPN.com's Chad Ford wrote in a recent chat about what he's hearing from sources:
"Two different sources today told me the Knicks are also looking strongly at Willie Cauley-Stein. They want a strong defender in New York which explains the Justise Winslow and Cauley-Stein interest. Of course, I also think there's a good chance they just trade this pick if the right veteran comes around.
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While nothing went right for the Knicks last year, defense was a particular problem. They ranked 21st in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency, and trading Tyson Chandler last summer looks even worse in hindsight.
Mudiay would be a good addition to a Knicks team that needs more players who can handle the ball. Carmelo Anthony can score, but there's a reason he was willing to shoot 25-30 times every night.
Willie Cauley-Stein would provide a boost on defense few players in this class can match because of his versatility to match up with anyone on the floor. He had the second-most defensive win shares per 40 minutes (0.134) of any college player in a single season since 2009-10 last year, trailing Kentucky teammate Towns, per Basketball-Reference.com (via Sports Illustrated).
The Knicks may not be in a full rebuild since Anthony is on the roster, but they need to act quickly to surround him with talent in order to have any hope of making a playoff run while he's still in his prime. Mudiay is the long-term project with the huge ceiling, while Cauley-Stein is the high-floor instant impact star.
Thunder Tipping Their Hand?
The 2015-16 season is going to be a huge one for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They got rid of head coach Scott Brooks after missing the playoffs, even though he didn't have Kevin Durant most of the season, and are facing the possibility of losing the 2013-14 MVP to free agency next summer.
The Thunder should have no problem returning to the postseason next year, assuming Durant returns and plays at the level he did before foot injuries ruined his 2014-15 campaign. They may not dip into the free-agent market this offseason, so having a lottery pick is a nice fall-back plan for this franchise.
Interestingly, in the same Ford chat reference above, the Thunder may have their sights set on drafting a point guard at No. 14:
"As for the Thunder, since late last week there's been a lot of buzz among rival GMs that the Thunder promised Cameron Payne they'd take him at 14. I don't know how much of that is smoke, but he is a great fit at 14 and talent wise he may be the best pure point guard in the draft."
In his most recent mock, Ford had the Thunder taking Cameron Payne with the explanation they can use depth behind Westbrook:
"The Thunder need a long-term starter at the 2 guard, but they need a player who's ready sooner rather than later. But at this portion of the draft I'm not sure that player is available.They also could use help behind Russell Westbrook at the point, and Payne seems like a terrific option. He's heady and crafty and his balance between scoring the basketball and shooting appears just about perfect.
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No team understands the value of depth more in the NBA right now than the Thunder. They were tested time and again last season, starting with Westbrook missing 14 games in November, and still managed to win 45 games.
While filling a need at the 2-guard may seem like an obvious solution for the Thunder, who fell into the Dion Waiters trap, a team that's ready to win a title if all the pieces return healthy should be focused on drafting the best player available.
If Oklahoma City's front office believes Payne is that player, draft him and don't look back. There's nothing in his game, as Ford notes, to suggest he can't turn into a quality player as a rookie.
Stats via ESPN.com unless otherwise noted
