Re-Evaluating the Los Angeles Dodgers' Top Draft Picks from the Past Decade

The 2015 MLB draft begins June 8, and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be picking 24^th. As it does every year, the draft offers an opportunity to improve the farm system and set the organization up for the future. This article will explore the first pick of each of the Dodgers' last 10 drafts, which helps demonstrate how good the organization has been at spotting and developing talent.

It is unfortunately impossible to truly evaluate this front office because ownership, the general manager and the scouting director have all changed over the past two years. However, much of the scouting infrastructure has remained the same, so we can at least get some idea of how good the Dodgers have been at spotting talent. And given Andrew Friedman’s track record with drafting in Tampa Bay (David Price, Evan Longoria), we can be optimistic that this new Dodger front office will make competent decisions.

2014: Grant Holmes, RHP

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Holmes is the Dodgers’ most recent first round pick, and he has been quite impressive. He is still just 19 years old, and he is already in Single-A. His career  minor league numbers of a 3.50 ERA and 3.29 K/BB ratio would be excellent regardless of his age, but the fact that he is nearly three years younger than many of his competitors makes that stand out even more. It is too early to figure out what Holmes will be, but the future looks promising.

2013: Chris Anderson, RHP

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

A college starting pitcher when he was drafted, Anderson is now a 22-year-old in Double-A. His 3.86 ERA indicates that he has been competent throughout his minor league career (it includes a stint in the hitter-friendly California League), but he has not been elite. As will be a common theme throughout this piece, Anderson’s bugaboo has been his command. He simply walks too many batters (4.3 BB/9) to be an elite starter.

2012: Corey Seager, SS

John Locher/Associated Press

Likely the best Dodgers draftee since Clayton Kershaw, Seager is one of baseball’s best prospects and will hopefully be an important member of the Dodgers infield for the foreseeable future. He has hit at every level of the minor leagues, and there is little reason to expect that will stop. Seager remains a shortstop, but he has gotten the occasional game at third base in case he is needed there down the stretch in 2015.

2011: Chris Reed, LHP

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Reed is a hard-throwing lefty who was finally converted to the bullpen this year. The Dodgers left him in the rotation for many years hoping he would be able to figure out his control issues, but the Stanford product proved unable to remain a starting pitcher. However, as a lefty with a history of getting lefties out, Reed likely has a future in a major league bullpen. 

2010: Zach Lee, RHP

Morry Gash/Associated Press

This story is unique: The McCourt Dodgers spent an atypical amount of money on Lee, and this huge a bonus is no longer allowed at the 28^th pick because of the CBA. However, whatever the methods were, the Dodgers got a high-upside talent that they hadn’t drafted in the first round since Clayton Kershaw.

Unfortunately, Lee hasn’t lived up to his potential. He was a highly rated prospect for multiple years and by multiple websites, but the fact that he still isn’t in the big leagues is a slight upset. A disappointing 2014 that saw his strikeout rate plummet by 2.5 per inning lowered his probability of making an impact, but he appears to have rebounded in 2015. He will likely be a fourth starter at his peak, which is valuable but not what the Dodgers were hoping for.

2009: Aaron Miller, LHP

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Miller is a cautionary tale. The 36^th overall pick in 2009, the Baylor product never made it above Double-A. As I assume is generally the case for young pitchers, his inability to harness his control ultimately spelled doom. In every stop above Single-A, he walked about five batters per nine innings, which is just simply too many.

2008: Ethan Martin, RHP

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Martin is unfortunately best known for an incident in high school in which he was tangentially involved: His high school team gained notoriety for purposely beaning an umpire during a state championship game.

He never made it to the big leagues with the Dodgers; instead, he was traded to Philadelphia for Shane Victorino in 2012. He has since made 17 appearances in the big leagues with the Phillies, and he’s been bad. He has a career 5.93 ERA and 5.74 FIP in 44 innings.

2007: Chris Withrow, RHP

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Withrow made the news this past week when he was included in the Juan Uribe trade with the Atlanta Braves, and he remains a relatively high-upside reliever despite his missing all of this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

At one point in his minor league career, Withrow was a starter who struck out a batter per inning. However, he could never harness his command, and after walking five batters per nine innings in the minors, the Dodgers shifted him to the bullpen.

2006: Clayton Kershaw, LHP

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

A high school pitcher from Texas when the Dodgers drafted him, Kershaw has been quite good. Three Cy Young Awards is impressive, and little else needs to be said about this pick. If they could draft a Kershaw-caliber player every year, the Dodgers would be the best team in the history of the game.

2005: Luke Hochevar, RHP

ANDY KING/Associated Press

Hochevar was an elite college pitcher whom the Dodgers drafted out of high school and then again after three years of college, but he refused to sign both times. The Kansas City Royals drafted him first overall in 2006, and he has had a decent career reinventing himself as a reliever.