2015 NBA Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions, Rising Prospects Who Will Shine
Drafts are built around the stars at the top, but they are made by those players lower in the pecking order who become household names. The NBA's incoming rookie crop has plenty of talent who can take this leap even if it doesn't seem obvious right now.
This year's draft class is unique in that the top features players who shine in very different ways. Jahlil Okafor is a traditional center who scores close to the basket. Karl-Anthony Towns is an athletic freak still growing into his potential. D'Angelo Russell is a tremendous ball-handler who can score or pass, whether it's at the 1- or 2-guard.
If those three players live up to their potential, the 2015 class will be excellent. It's the players selected after them who will determine if this is just a solid year or one that will be remembered for a long time to come.
There are players rising late in the process who can give the June 25 draft a jolt of energy. They will be discussed as soon as you get a look at the latest first-round predictions.
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State |
| 4 | New York Knicks | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Pat Connaughton, SF, Notre Dame |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Michael Frazier, SG, Florida |
Justise Winslow, SF, Projected No. 8 to Detroit Pistons
No matter where you look, it seems that Justise Winslow is the marquee player whose stock keeps going up. He's not a player who will wow you in a shooting display, but looking up after a game is over, there is no doubt the former Duke star was one of the best players on the floor.
For most teams picking in the top 10, the goal is to bet on loud tools to develop. That's where a front office has to find superstars, especially since a lot of marquee free agents aren't likely to sign with a lottery team based on how this era of free agency works.
Yet Winslow is the kind of talent a lot of teams will regret passing on, even as he is still projected to go in the top 10.
Charlie Widdoes of NBA.com broke down Winslow's game coming into the NBA and found that some concerns about his shooting ability may be overblown:
"He has a quick first step, which he uses to attack in isolation and draw fouls, getting to the free throw line 5.5 times per 40 minutes. Questions about his jump shot arose as he shot 32 percent from 3 in January, but as he recovered from nagging rib and shoulder injuries, he found his stroke and knocked down 46 percent of his attempts from downtown from February on. Winslow continued to show comfort with the jumper during the tournament, cashing in on defenses that overplayed Okafor in the post or Jones' penetration.
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It also bodes well for Winslow's future prospects that he doesn't have to rely on scoring to impact a game. His versatility on defense, which was on display in the NCAA tournament, gives him an instant road to success as a rookie while he develops more shooting touch.
The NBA in 2015 is built on versatility, being able to move all over the floor to score and defend from multiple positions. Winslow's 6'6" frame and his track record at Duke show he has the skills to do that, though adding more muscle to increase his 222-pound body will make him even better.
Pat Connaughton, SF, Projected No. 26 to San Antonio Spurs
The scouting combine didn't draw much fanfare because the top talents opted to skip workouts or attend altogether, as is their right. It did, however, serve as a springboard for a player like Pat Connaughton to slide into the late-first-round mix.
It was no secret at Notre Dame that Connaughton could shoot. The 22-year-old increased his three-point shooting percentage in four seasons with the Irish, finishing last year with a 42.3 percent mark.
The combine served to showcase how athletic Connaughton really is, highlighted by his 44-inch vertical jump. These kinds of things are nothing new to people who've followed the former Irish standout, such as his former AAU coach, Michael Crotty, who commented to Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star:
"When I look around the league, and I've spent some time in the NBA, I find it really hard to believe there's not a spot for a guy that makes so many winning plays, that is so tough, such a team player. ... He's mature, his body is ready and every step of the way he keeps surprising people and surprising people. Hopefully real soon, it won't be a surprise just how good of a player this guy is and that he really belongs in the NBA.
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Sometimes there are certain players who need to be seen out of a game situation to really appreciate how much talent they have. No one was going to be surprised by Connaughton shooting well in Chicago during five-on-five drills.
It's when all the pieces get put together that Connaughton goes from being an overlooked player to a potential impact star. He's also going to end up in a situation, projected here to San Antonio, that doesn't ask him to do a lot right out of the gate.
Michael Frazier, SG, Projected No. 30 to Golden State Warriors
There wasn't a player at the combine who needed to impress teams more than Michael Frazier. He always had the talent to be a star in college and found that ability as a sophomore two years ago by shooting 44.7 percent from three-point range in leading Florida to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Frazier didn't build on that success with a decent 38 percent success rate behind the arc, and he suffered an ankle injury that caused him to miss seven games. However, he decided to declare for the NBA draft.
Needing the combine to make a move up draft boards, Frazier displayed that electric shooting touch that made him one of the most promising players in the country two years ago.
ESPN Insider Chad Ford wrote in mid-May that the touch Frazier displayed during Chicago's predraft workouts built his stock back up:
"He ended up going 4-for-9 from 3 in two games, and averaged 15.5 PPG at the combine. His measurements (roughly 6-5 in shoes with a 6-8 wingspan) were solid for the position and if you've been following Kevin Pelton all year, you know Frazier tests out as a top-20 pick from an analytics point of view. He definitely earned himself some buzz with his play in Chicago and made a case for consideration in the late first round.
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There's also something to the idea of a player feeling the need to prove something to himself and others, as Frazier knew NBA teams were going to judge him on a steep curve, per Jonathan Givony of Draft Express:
Frazier's shooting touch may not serve him well anywhere in the league, as he's still undersized for a shooting guard at 6'5" and 199 pounds, but slotting him in with Golden State just feels like a perfect match. The Warriors are a team built on shooters, led by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
Steve Kerr's team also wouldn't require Frazier to handle the ball. He can just work to find an open spot, take a pass from Curry and score. He's going to be a valuable NBA player because of his ability to shoot from the outside and is motivated to prove to everyone he can do it.
Stats and measurements courtesy of NBA.com.
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