Playing Boom or Bust with the 10 Biggest Moves of the 2015 NFL Offseason

Some of the biggest coaching moves, trades and signings in the NFL this offseason will be successes and some will be failures. We know from history that not every team actually wins the offseason despite what most fans are feeling in May.

The teams that don't win the offseason usually are the real winners, but that's because they aren't burning through head coaches or throwing starter money at a backup safety in free agency. You won't find those teams here.

What you will find are those few teams every year that do make big moves in the offseason that pay dividends down the road. Those teams that will do well because of a shrewd move by management or ownership.

Then there's the teams that do the opposite. They make poor decisions or have bad processes. Sometimes teams do still get good players or coaches out of it, but they overpay them, which leads to other problems. Maybe they trade away a player or draft resources they could have used later.

So let's play a little game of boom or bust on the 10 biggest moves of the 2015 offseason. 

49ers Part Ways with HC Jim Harbaugh, Hire Jim Tomsula: Bust

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Jed York (right) is hoping Jim Tomsula (left) is the right man to lead the 49ers back to the Super Bowl.

The San Francisco 49ers agreed to “mutually part ways” with Jim Harbaugh. Credit the organization for creating a new way to say they were firing their head coach, but that’s where the credit should end.

For reasons that remain largely unknown, owner Jed York sided with general manager Trent Baalke over Harbaugh in a struggle for power. It was a strange decision by York considering the rarity of a head coach like Harbaugh and the prevalence of general managers like Baalke.

What was even more curious was replacing Harbaugh with defensive line coach Jim Tomsula. It’s not that Tomsula isn’t a terrific coach, but he doesn’t command a room, as was apparent in his introductory press conference.

Tomsula was also elevated from being a position coach, which is rare. It’s probably even rarer considering the 49ers went on a long coaching search and still opted with the in-house option, who some might call underqualified.

The 49ers still have talent, so maybe this all works out, but it’s very hard not to think this will blow up in York’s face. Losing linebacker Patrick Willis (retired), linebacker Chris Borland (retired), cornerback Chris Culliver (free agency) and defensive end Justin Smith (retired) this offseason isn’t going to make things any easier.

Broncos Fire HC John Fox, Hire Gary Kubiak: Boom

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Gary Kubiak brings missing element to the Denver Broncos.

Like the 49ers, the Denver Broncos fired a proven head coach after the team took a step back in 2014. Unlike the 49ers, the Broncos still made the playoffs, which arguably makes the move more suspect unless all factors are considered.

General manager John Elway hired Gary Kubiak as Fox’s replacement. Kubiak is another proven head coach, one of the top offensive minds in the league who has been cultivating top rushing offenses for years. The Broncos want to lean more on the running game as quarterback Peyton Manning gets older, so the marriage makes perfect sense from that perspective.

Kubiak also brings more attitude to a team that didn’t seem to be playing with much passion in their 24-13 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Divisional Round. Given Kubiak’s specialties, he’s exactly what the Broncos need to get over the hump in 2015, which is a big deal.

Things might have been different had the Broncos handled the situation poorly, but they didn’t. They didn’t air their grievances in the media and they didn’t hire an unknown head coach to take over a group that doesn’t have time for rookie mistakes.

Lions Trade for Haloti Ngata: Boom

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Haloti Ngata is still a big man and a good football player at age 31.

The Detroit Lions knew their star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was going to sign with the highest bidder in free agency, which left them with a huge hole to fill. They filled it trading a fourth- and fifth-round draft pick to the Baltimore Ravens for Haloti Ngata, one of the few worthy replacements in the league.

Ngata was essentially a cap casualty in Baltimore, which means the Lions will get him for one year and pay him $8.5 million in 2015. Ngata will cost less than half that of what Suh will cost the Miami Dolphins in 2015 and should replace at least half of Suh’s production.

Although he’s getting older, Ngata is playing for a contract extension. The last time Ngata was in a contract year, he had arguably the best season of his career at defensive tackle. He was obviously a much younger player then, but Ngata’s game hasn’t decline so much in recent years that he’s incapable of a big year at age 31.

Ngata is also a great fit for defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s defense that features many exotic fronts. Ngata has played defensive tackle, nose tackle and 3-4 defensive end during his career and all at a high level, so the Lions know they can count on production no matter where they need him to play.

The Lions may still take a step back without Suh and Nick Fairley at defensive tackle, but Ngata won’t be the reason. Ngata will be the reason they don’t take as big a step back as would normally be expected when that much talent walks out the door.

Bills Trade for LeSean McCoy: Bust

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The LeSean McCoy show moves to...Buffalo.

LeSean McCoy is one of the best running backs in the league, but trading for him was a bad idea for the Bills. McCoy is expensive, has carried the ball a lot over the last few years and he won’t be running behind an awesome offensive line as he was in Philadelphia.

The Bills also traded a good young linebacker in Kiko Alonso, who they had under contractual control for an affordable price for another two years. Alonso may not have been a perfect fit for new head coach Rex Ryan’s defense, but good coaches figure out how to get production out of their best players.

McCoy’s new deal with the Bills will pay him a $13.1 million signing bonus, $2.6 million in guaranteed base salary in 2015 and $4.8 million in base salary in 2016, which becomes guaranteed on the first day of the 2016 league year. Thereafter, McCoy will make about $6 million in base salary per year for the final three years of the deal, assuming the Bills keep him around.

If the Bills cut him after two years, he’ll have made $20.6 million for two seasons of work. The deal has no guarantees beyond 2016 other than those for injury, so that’s entirely possible. Only Adrian Peterson is making that kind of money at running back right now.

The biggest problem with that type of pay structure is that the Bills need bang for their buck. According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles had the best run-blocking offensive line in 2014, while the Bills had the worst. That doesn’t bode well for McCoy’s odds of having a ton of success in Buffalo.

Factor in a crowded box because the Bills don’t have a legitimate threat at quarterback and the potential breakdown of McCoy from overuse and the trade is dangerously close to being a bad one. McCoy is a very talented player, but the Bills would have been better off signing a free agent at running back or drafting one and keeping Alonso.

Eagles Trade for Kiko Alonso: Boom

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Kiko Alonso was an impact rookie in 2013.

The Eagles didn’t exactly need another athletic inside linebacker to go with Mychal Kendricks, but they are becoming more valuable in the NFL. Linebackers who can cover a tight end, tackle and shed blocks can stay on the field in sub-packages and pressure packages, which every NFL team uses a lot these days.

Alonso was one of the best in coverage as a rookie in 2013. Sure, he missed 2014, but there’s no reason to think he won’t come back strong in 2015 after tearing his ACL. In fact, he should still be getting better as a player.

The Eagles did give up a good player in running back LeSean McCoy, but signing running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews more than replaced his production with better schematic fits for head coach Chip Kelly’s offense.

Best of all, the Eagles have Alonso under contractual control for the next two years at a total of $1.7 million. Basically, the Eagles managed to find a talented young player for cheap that they wouldn’t be able to find in free agency and replaced the player they traded in free agency with an equally good option plus a solid hedge.  

Seahawks Trade C Max Unger and a First-Round Pick for TE Jimmy Graham: Boom

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The Seahawks are betting heavily that Jimmy Graham can make tough grabs in Seattle's elements.

The biggest trade of the offseason was the one that sent center Max Unger and the 31st overall pick from the Seattle Seahawks to the New Orleans Saints in exchange for tight end Jimmy Graham. For the Seahawks, the move gives quarterback Russell Wilson a much-needed weapon in the passing game.

Wilson’s top target in the Super Bowl was wide receiver Chris Matthews, who had four receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown in the game. Matthews had zero career catches prior to the Super Bowl and was on the practice squad for most the season, so clearly this was not an ideal situation.

The Seahawks did lose wide receiver Paul Richardson to injury, but he caught just 29 passes for 271 yards in 2014. Doug Baldwin was the team’s leading receiver with 825 yards and three touchdowns, which is well below league average for a No. 1 option in the passing game.

Graham had a down year by his standards with 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. That is production the Seahawks need in the passing game so running back Marshawn Lynch can slowly hand the keys to the offense to Wilson.

Naturally, the Seahawks will have to do that shortly after re-signing Wilson to a contract extension and once Lynch starts his inevitable decline. It makes a lot of sense to plan in this case.

Letting Unger go was probably a tough decision for the Seahawks, but they played without him for most of last season and still did well as a team. Losing a first-round pick probably wasn’t ideal, but the Seahawks could take that kind of hit in a draft that wasn’t particularly top heavy.

General manager John Schneider even told Peter King of theMMQB.com that the Seahawks had only 16 first-round grades, so the value of the pick was below face value. The Seahawks still gave up a hefty sum to get Graham, but his impact will be significant and immediate and they can plan around what they had to give up.

Dolphins Sign DT Ndamukong Suh: Bust

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Ndamukong Suh is a happy (and rich) man in Miami.

Does any non-quarterback deserve $19 million-$20 million annually in today’s NFL? Can Ndamukong Suh, who is a great player, justify his contract with his on-field performance?

Chances are the answer to both questions is an emphatic “no.”

Suh will still be good. Barring injury, he should continue to be a dominant force at defensive tackle, but the open market inflated his price tag. Players of Suh’s caliber rarely become unrestricted free agents, so he had the kind of leverage most free agents want and never get.

There’s nothing wrong with Suh getting the best deal he could, but the Miami Dolphins are now stuck paying for it regardless of what happens over the next three years. There are rules that protect quarterbacks, but there is no such protection in place in the trenches.

Suh also is only an upgrade over Jared Odrick, who the team let leave in free agency. It’s not as if the Dolphins were getting terrible play at defensive tackle last year.

The Dolphins may want to believe that Suh is unblockable, but the reality is Suh can only cover so much space as a single player. Offenses have to scheme around him, but the point is they can scheme around him.

Even J.J. Watt, who is arguably the defensive player on the planet, was on a 2-14 team in 2013. Miami’s defense was already average to above average in 2014, so how much a difference Suh can make could be limited.

Ultimately, Suh will not make a big enough impact to justify giving him quarterback money in free agency. There’s also extra risk involved because Suh plays such a physically punishing position, even if he’s the one usually doing the punishing.

Jets Sign CB Darrelle Revis: Boom

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Darrelle Revis returned to the team that drafted him.

Of all the 10 big contracts handed out to free agents this offseason, cornerback Darrelle Revis’ deal with the New York Jets was second only to Suh’s deal in totals and guarantees. Of all 10 deals, Revis is also the only player who is older than 28.

Revis’ deal includes $39 million fully guaranteed, but he gets another $9.3 million in 2017 if he’s on the roster. He’s either getting $19.5 million per year for two years or $16.1 million per year for three years. He’ll get $11 million in each of year four and five if the Jets pick up his options for those years.

Once again, Revis managed to secure more guaranteed money and more total money than any other cornerback in the league. He signed one of the most lucrative contracts and he did it at an age where most free agents aren’t getting them.

Revis is one of the few players who you can honestly say is worth the inflated cost. He had bet on himself over the years and continued to come out on top. This time, the Jets bet on him and are hoping for the same result.

Cornerbacks like Revis can typically play for a long time at a high level. Champ Bailey of the Denver Broncos was good until he was 35. Charles Woodson is still playing at age 38, but he didn’t move to safety until he was 36 and led the league in interceptions the year before.

Revis behind a defensive front that includes Sheldon Richardson, rookie Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson is scary. Add in some exotic blitzes from head coach Todd Bowles and you have a recipe for defensive success.

Jaguars Sign TE Julius Thomas: Bust

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Julius Thomas is talented, but he could find the game comes harder to him in Jacksonville than Denver.

It’s highly curious that the Denver Broncos would let a young playmaking tight end like Julius Thomas get away, but that’s just what they did. The Jacksonville Jaguars pounced on Thomas to help their struggling young quarterback Blake Bortles in free agency, which seems like a good move on the surface.

The criticism of Thomas has been his blocking, but that’s not why the Jaguars signed him. As long as Thomas is a good receiver, the Jaguars will be happy.

The problem is that Thomas wasn’t even that productive last year when given the opportunity. Sure, he caught 12 touchdowns for the second year in a row, but eight of those came in the first five weeks. His overall play declined in 2014 compared to 2013.

When teams tried to stop wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Thomas found it easy to catch touchdowns. When teams shifted the focus to him, he disappeared and then got hurt.  

There were strange rumors about his toughness when he disappeared for two months after injuring his ankle against the St. Louis Rams in Week 11. The chorus grew so loud that Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post asked Thomas about it prior to the Broncos’ home loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

Thomas is certainly a capable player, but he’s going to struggle a lot more when teams can focus on him. When he doesn’t have Manning to place a perfect pass between defenders or he’s not 100 percent healthy, it’s hard to know what to expect from him.

Chiefs Sign WR Jeremy Maclin: Boom

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The Chiefs scored a touchdown on the signing of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. That counts, right?

No wide receiver scored a touchdown for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2014, but the offense scored a decent amount of points. Still, the issue at receiver was obviously something the team tried to rectify by signing wide receiver Jeremy Maclin this offseason.

Maclin ended up being the sole premier receiver available after Randall Cobb re-signed with the Green Bay Packers, so the Chiefs did well to get their target even if it was a little expensive.  

Many people think quarterback Alex Smith was or is the problem. The fact is, Smith was part of the problem, but he can also be part of the solution thanks to Maclin.  

Smith just doesn’t like to take risks. Throwing deep or into traffic is just not something Smith is ever going to do consistently. In 2014, he threw deep 5.2 percent of the time, which was a league low by 3.8 percent. Maybe that will go up a bit in 2015, but fundamentally he’s not going to change the way he plays the game.

For the Chiefs to have success in 2015 in the passing game, they need good route-runners who can gain separation and yards after the catch. They also need someone who head coach Andy Reid and Smith can trust to be where they are supposed to be. That pretty much describes Maclin perfectly.

Last season, Maclin had a career year with 85 receptions for 1,318 yards, but he was also a worthy No. 2 option for Reid from 2009-12. Maclin averaged 863 yards per season under Reid, which is just three fewer yards than the 866 yards Michael Crabtree caught from Smith in 2011.

Maclin had 489 yards after the catch last season, which was sixth among all wide receivers. His 56 first-down catches ranked 14th and he also caught 10 touchdowns. He’s the type of receiver who can create space and take a short catch from Smith for 15 yards or longer.

He averaged a sterling 15.5 yards per reception last year. Taking short Smith passes the distance is what is going to be the best chance for a wide receiver to score in an offense with tight end Travis Kelce and running back Jamaal Charles.

Maclin may not be better than he was last year, but he’ll very likely be both a difference-maker for the Chiefs and the best wide receiver Smith has ever had. That alone will make him worth the cost.