Premier League Notebook Heading into Week 38

With the major battles in the Premier League essentially all done and dusted before the final round of games, perhaps it was inevitable the summer transfer season—silly season, as some would have it—would start earlier than usual.

With only one relegation spot still to be decided on what has somewhat hyperbolically been branded "Showdown Sunday"—and let's be honest, there is only an outside chance Hull City will scramble out of that one—the absence of real drama has created a vacuum, an opening for transfer talk to take centre stage slightly earlier than usual.

Come on down, Raheem Sterling. The Liverpool attacker has once again dominated the headlines after news leaked that he has decided his future does not lie with Liverpool, courtesy of BBC Sport's Ben Smith.

That surprising twist immediately resulted in links with basically every big club you can think of (Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea) before Sterling's agent, Aidy Ward, effectively pressed the self-destruct button on any hopes of a reconciliation—or, at least, a lucrative contract extension—with the Reds.

Quoted by the London Evening Standard's Benedict Moore-Bridger, Ward said:

"

He is definitely not signing. He's not signing for £700, £800, £900 thousand a week. He is not signing.

My job is to make sure I do the best with them (my clients). If people say I am bad at my job, or they are badly advised it does not matter. ...

... Any of the criticism from current pundits or ex-Liverpool players—none of them things matter to me. It is not relevant.

"

While Ward's particular brand of bullishness may come back to haunt him—other clubs will surely now be wary of dealing with Ward and his clients in future—it is easy to see why he is taking such a hard-line position on this occasion. Ward, and Sterling by extension, knows he has all the power in this situation: As a young, homegrown player of undoubted potential, every club in England will be eager to snap Sterling up, and consequently, he can almost demand what he wants.

That is due to circumstances as well as Sterling's talent. It was reported by the Guardian's Jamie Jackson that Manchester City had offered £160,000 a week to try to persuade James Milner to stay, a rotation player for much of his time at the club but, because of his homegrown status, one who remains almost indispensable. Homegrown quotas are now a big factor for the top sides and have a big influence on their transfer planning because, ultimately, eight of a club's 25 senior players need that status.

That is perhaps why there were also reports from the Daily Mail's Simon Jones (h/t the Independent) that City and Chelsea are among the clubs sniffing around Alex Song, who qualifies as homegrown because of his move to England as a teenager. Premier League squad rules, as well as the standard required to be a contributor for one of the league's biggest teams, means big clubs are fishing in the same small pool for homegrown additions.

That is why Sterling's situation is so promising—it is so heavily weighted in his favour. It's also why Ward knows he can be as dismissive as he likes of Liverpool and still come away with what his client wants. If Sterling does not want to play at the club long-term, and you would now have to assume that is the case, then he has not so much burned a bridge but ensured 10 or 15 others will now be presented in front of him.

If Sterling's desire is to move clubs and earn as much money as possible in the process, Ward is not exactly on the wrong path.

Liverpool are not blameless in this scenario and should surely have considered reworking his contract earlier. It is worth remembering that, if the figures being bandied about are correct, he is probably being underpaid at the moment. Nevertheless, it is worth reiterating that Sterling is not a local lad and has no reason to have any particular affinity to the Merseyside club—throwing out words such as loyalty makes no sense in this situation.

Queens Park Rangers lost a teenage Sterling to the Reds in exactly the sort of situation we are beginning to see now, just on a much smaller scale: another club luring the talent away with a bigger financial offer, and the selling club ultimately forced to settle for a token transfer fee.

Having been on the winning side of that predatory dynamic once, Liverpool cannot exactly complain too much now the worm has turned. In a way, they are the ones who taught Sterling and his agent that such an approach can be effective.

That is not to say Ward and Sterling are acting with impeccable manners—far from it. This could surely all be done behind closed doors, with the end result being essentially the same but presented to the world in a far more PR-friendly way.

It is worth pointing out that Ward reportedly disputed the quotes attributed to him by the Evening Standard in an interview with Sky Sports News, which do carry an air of someone caught speaking too openly down the pub, but we may learn more about that over time. Regardless, he seems to be walking a fine line.

Like Sterling, Ward is a relatively young man making his first big moves in his industry—he is 34 and only recently struck out on his own as an agent—so you do wonder whether Ward sees Sterling as his golden ticket, the biggest money-making opportunity of his career landing in his lap almost as soon as it begins.

From the outside, his strategy appears to be blunt but pretty effective. Down the line, however, how circumspect are clubs going to be about dealing with other Ward-represented players? In maximising Sterling's earning power now, he may be causing problems for others in seasons to come.

One thing is for sure: We know where the Sterling camp stands. Now, it is down to Liverpool. Do they keep the player for the final two years of his contract and risk losing him for very little at the end of that, or do they cut their losses and invite bids that, with the timely recent indications that UEFA will ease elements of financial fair play, could well escalate beyond £40 million?

It may well end up being a case of John W. Henry's principles or pride colliding with his business instincts. It will be interesting to see which comes out on top.

Sterling is the first big transfer saga of the summer, and his will probably end up being the biggest, but we know he will not be the last. One season is ending this weekend, but another is just kicking into gear.

Stu Forster/Getty Images

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Week 38 Fixtures

All games 3 p.m. BST (10 a.m. ET).

Sunday

Arsenal vs. West Bromwich Albion
Aston Villa vs. Burnley
Chelsea vs. Sunderland
Crystal Palace vs. Swansea City
Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Hull City vs. Manchester United
Leicester City vs. Queens Park Rangers
Manchester City vs. Southampton
Newcastle United vs. West Ham United
Stoke City vs. Liverpool

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Julian Finney/Getty Images

1. What to Watch Out for This Week

Hull's Horrible Last-Day Record

Hull City—currently in possession of the Premier League's final relegation spot—go into their game against Manchester United knowing they must win and hope other results go their way in order to avoid the drop. However, recent history doesn't exactly stand in their favour.

As the Guardian points out:

"

Hull have a long-standing habit of doing terribly in their final game of any season. Excluding play-offs and cup finals the last 10 seasons have brought three draws and seven defeats, and going back another five years to the turn of the millennium brings one victory, but also three defeats and a draw. Manchester United, meanwhile, have won 11 of their past 15 final-day matches, drawing two and losing just two, both when the league title was already wrapped up.

"

That doesn't sound auspicious for Steve Bruce and his side.

Europa League Scramble Finally Ends

The other "significant" prize up for grabs on the final day is the Europa League qualification spots, with Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton fighting over the two guaranteed berths based on league position—all three will qualify if Arsenal beat Aston Villa in the FA Cup final.

It seems fairly evident that Brendan Rodgers and Mauricio Pochettino, the two managers who have experienced the competition this season, have little enthusiasm for participating in it again, so it will be interesting to see whether either side allows Southampton to leapfrog them on the final day.

Avoiding the Europa League next season might be a shortcut to improving league form considerably, but that would come at a price. Rightly or wrongly, Rodgers in particular will be judged completely differently if Liverpool finish seventh rather than fifth. To a lesser extent, the same is true for Pochettino, who will also surely not want to be beaten by the club he left last summer for a supposedly bigger opportunity.

The Europa League may be a millstone around the necks of its English participants, but short-term concerns might mean Liverpool and Tottenham end up taking on the extra weight anyway.

All Eyes on Wembley

Around 24 hours after the Premier League season comes to an end, and we discover the third team demoted to the Championship, Wembley will provide the stage on which we find out the team that will be joining Bournemouth and Watford in the top flight next season.

Both Middlesbrough and Norwich City have previously enjoyed life in the promised land, and both will be eager to reclaim that feeling in what is routinely described as the richest game in club football.

Middlesbrough perhaps have the greater attacking talent, with Jelle Vossen, Lee Tomlin and, if he is fit, Patrick Bamford, but Norwich perhaps have more resilience about them, a greater steel in all areas of the pitch and, perhaps crucially in such a game, a significantly superior goalkeeper. That may just give them a slender advantage, although after such a long and draining season, perhaps it will simply be the team that keeps its nerve better that will ultimately emerge victorious.

There is also an interesting contrast in managers, with Boro boss Aitor Karanka a former Real Madrid player and assistant to Jose Mourinho in his time in charge at the Bernabeu, whereas Alex Neil has taken an altogether less glamorous route to Carrow Road via Scottish football.

"I believe that if we do what we're capable of doing, we're more than capable of winning the game," Neil said, per the Daily Mail. If nothing else, he already has the art of meaningless sound bites—the first attribute of a decent manager—perfected.

2. Video of the Week

3. Player to Watch

Charlie Austin

Called up to the England squad for the first time on Thursday, it is safe to presume Charlie Austin will be in a better-than-expected mood when he runs out to face Leicester City on Sunday.

Queens Park Rangers' relegation will still be hurting—and facing Leicester, another of last season's promoted sides but the only one that managed to survive, will not help—but Austin will have at least one reason to look to the future with reasonable enthusiasm.

Austin's England call-up might be slightly misleading—there are a few injuries, and some other younger players ahead of him in the pecking order have instead been assigned to the under-21s for this summer's European Championship—but it nevertheless gives him something extra to think about as he heads into the summer.

The way Austin took a prolonged lap of honour at Loftus Road last time out indicated the striker was already set on leaving the Hoops this summer, but the fact he now has a realistic England career to think about makes that need to stay in the Premier League all the more significant.

Depending on the price tag QPR slap on him, plenty of clubs will be sniffing around a striker who has scored 17 goals for an often-impotent side this season. An eye-catching display at the King Power Stadium will not define his short-term future, but it is safe to imagine scouts will be watching—and a goal would certainly help his case for both England and a transfer.

"I have put in a lot of hard work this year, and luckily enough I have been rewarded with this call-up at the end of it. ... I have done everything I can to try and get into the squad, and now I'm really looking forward to it," Austin told his club's official website.

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

4. Game of the Weekend

Newcastle United vs. West Ham United

On Sunday, the stakes are highest at the KC Stadium and St James' Park, but it is at the latter ground where perhaps there will be the most expectation. Newcastle know they will guarantee their survival with a win over West Ham United, who have nothing to play for and could field a slightly unfamiliar lineup. As such, they are in a fortunate position from which they can render Hull City's result against Manchester United irrelevant as long as they do their job.

With nine defeats in their last 10 matches, however, such a task is certainly no forgone conclusion, especially when John Carver is the man in charge, a manager who has recently accused one of his players of deliberately getting himself sent off and others of simply not being up to the required standard, shortly after declaring himself to be the best coach in the league.

Carver's approach is certainly unique, but it does not appear to be inspiring. Of a team meeting held this week, Carver revealed, per BBC Sport:

"

I said straight out "if anybody doesn't fancy it, if anybody wants to back-bite, if anybody wants to be negative - there's the door."

I don't think bringing in them just to tear a strip off them would have achieved anything. That's definite. I did that after the Leicester game, and you can't really say that it worked. You have to try to find different ways of dealing with different situations. ...

... If it [relegation] did happen, it would be unbearable and I don't know how long it would take to get over it.

"

From West Ham's point of view, a defeat to a team as obviously bereft of talent, coherence and confidence as Newcastle would be as clear an indication as any that Sam Allardyce should leave the club in the summer.

The Hammers are a club on the up, with a new stadium and an improved financial situation to work with, and they will surely not struggle to attract managerial candidates of a solid pedigree if Allardyce departs. There is always a risk attached to such moves, a chance the new boss will oversee a regression rather than progress, but perhaps that risk is worth taking when the last two seasons are properly reflected upon.