5 San Francisco 49ers Players Poised for a Breakout Campaign in 2015
Three players on the San Francisco 49ers last season had breakout campaigns: Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox and Chris Borland.
Culliver and Cox won starting jobs for the first time in their careers and played well. Borland played ever better, making 108 tackles as a rookie, even though he started only eight games.
Those three breakout performers are no longer 49ers. Borland retired, while Culliver signed a four-year, $32 million contract with the Washington Redskins and Cox signed a three-year, $15 million contract with the Tennessee Titans.
The Niners need new breakout performers.
At least five 49ers are poised to break out. Here are the top five in ascending order.
5. Quinton Dial, Third Season, Left Defensive End
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Former fifth-round pick Quinton Dial was primarily a bench player for the Alabama Crimson Tide. And he played just 19 snaps his rookie season with the Niners. He didn't seem to have much of a future in the NFL.
He started last season buried behind Ray McDonald and Tony Jerod-Eddie at left defensive end. But he got a chance to start at nose tackle when Ian Williams broke his leg Week 10.
Dial didn't play so well at first, as he was getting used to a new position. But things clicked for him Week 15. The final three games of the season, he was elite, earning a plus-6.5 grade from Pro Football Focus.
Dial has become a powerful run-stopper, maybe the most powerful run-stopper remaining on the team's defensive line. He probably will start at left defensive end next season as first-round pick Arik Armstead develops.
In 2016, Dial could move to nose tackle and replace free agent Williams.
Whichever position Dial plays, he should be a fixture in the starting lineup for years.
4. Tank Carradine, Third Season, Right Defensive End
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Last season, the Niners defense had just 36 sacks—tied for 10th-worst in the NFL.
The starting defensive ends—Justin Smith and McDonald—accounted for just eight sacks combined, and each guy played more than 700 snaps, per PFF. They were non-factors against the pass, run-defenders and nothing more.
Now, they're gone, and Tank Carradine will replace Smith, at least during passing downs, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee.
Carradine had three sacks in just 146 snaps last season. He played especially well in Week 15, sacking Russell Wilson twice.
Next season, Carradine might rack up eight sacks as an interior rusher in the nickel defense. Eight sacks are not out of the question, considering Carradine probably will play at least 600 snaps.
The last time the Niners got an eight-sack season from an interior rusher was 2010, when Smith had 8.5.
3. Aaron Lynch, Second Season, Left Outside Linebacker
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The 49ers like to say a player makes his biggest strides during his second season.
During Aaron Lynch's rookie season, he thrived in simplified role: getting the quarterback. The Niners made him an edge-rusher on passing downs, and he had six sacks in just 521 snaps, per PFF.
If Lynch makes the growth the Niners expect a second-year player to make, they'll have to start him. He'll be too good not to start.
He probably should have started last season. He was the best pass-rusher on the team, better than Aldon Smith. Even as a 21-year-old rookie, Lynch had everything—long arms, violent hands, advanced moves and an aggressive demeanor.
Lynch should have at least 10 sacks next season.
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2. Carlos Hyde, Second Season, Running Back
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Frank Gore is an all-time great running back, the best in franchise history, but he held the Niners offense back the past few seasons.
The Niners want a power-running offense. With Gore, they couldn't run the ball as much as they might have liked. They had to conserve the aging running back because he wore down the more he carried the ball.
The Niners don't have to worry about conservation anymore. The 32-year-old signed with the Indianapolis Colts this offseason. And his replacement, Carlos Hyde, is powerful, young (23) and fresh—he carried the ball only 83 times last season.
He should be able to carry the ball more than 300 times next season, something Gore accomplished only once during his career.
Last season, only two running backs rushed more than 300 times—DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy. Hyde might out-rush both of them in 2015. Hyde has a chance to be the NFL's leading rusher.
1. Colin Kaepernick, Fifth Season, Quarterback
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Colin Kaepernick is one of the best play-action passers in the NFL.
He has the arm strength to throw deep past the last line of defense. He makes safeties and cornerbacks pay when they react to the run fake.
And he is one of the best rollout passers in the NFL, maybe ever. Kaepernick can throw while rolling right or left. He actually seems more accurate when he throws on the run than when he sets his feet in the pocket. When he drops straight back, he looks like a dancer counting his steps. But when he rolls out, he's a flat-out natural. He's Brett Favre.
Last season, the play-action pass was not a weapon for the Niners. They didn't have a good running game while right tackle Anthony Davis was injured, and they didn't have a deep threat wide receiver all season. They had a bunch of slot/possession receivers. The personnel did not complement Kaepernick.
But it will next season. As long as Davis and Hyde stay healthy, the Niners should have one of the best running games in the NFL. Additionally, Kaepernick finally has a deep threat, one of the best deep threats in the NFL—Torrey Smith.
Everything is in place for Kaepernick to have his first Pro Bowl season.
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