5 Ways Lewis Hamilton's New Mercedes Contract Could Affect F1 Driver Market
The wait was longer than anticipated, but Mercedes have finally confirmed Lewis Hamilton's signing of a new three-year contract.
The deal, which according to BBC Sport's Andrew Benson is worth around £27 million per year, was described as a "formality" by Hamilton after the last race of 2014, per Sky Sports, but it took until the fifth round of the 2015 season for pen to touch paper.
Since arriving from McLaren at the beginning of 2013, Hamilton has won a total of 15 grands prix for Mercedes, with 11 of those victories coming last season as the British driver secured his second world tile.
And when you consider the Silver Arrows' current performance advantage over their rivals—Hamilton currently enjoys a relatively comfortable championship lead having won three races thus far—it is frightening to imagine what Mercedes and their star driver could achieve before their agreement expires at the end of 2018.
But Hamilton's new contract is set to have an impact across the Formula One grid.
Not only will the news affect Nico Rosberg, the man on the other side of the Mercedes garage, it will carry repercussions for those who would give an arm to drive a Silver Arrow—think Fernando Alonso—and, indeed, young upstarts looking to establish themselves in the sport, including Valtteri Bottas.
Here are five ways the Mercedes-Hamilton bond could affect F1's driver market.
Nico Rosberg More Vulnerable at Mercedes
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In contractual terms, Nico Rosberg took the high ground at Mercedes when he signed a new deal on the eve of last season's German Grand Prix.
The team did not explain exactly when his "multi-year contract extension" was due to expire in their official announcement, although Sky Sports' William Esler and James Galloway reported at the time that Rosberg was tied to Mercedes "until 2017," with BBC Sport's Andrew Benson claiming the deal "runs until the end of 2016."
With Hamilton's original Mercedes contract expiring at the end of '15, this gave Rosberg a buffer, a sense of security and the knowledge that he would remain with the Silver Arrows no matter what.
That, of course, may be (and almost certainly is) still the case, but the very fact that Hamilton is now tied to Mercedes until 2018, a year longer than his team-mate, naturally makes the German the more vulnerable of the two.
Quick enough to challenge Hamilton on occasion, consistent enough to score plenty of constructors' championship points and exceptionally media savvy, Rosberg is a driver almost tailor-made for Mercedes.
But if he continues to be beaten by Hamilton over the next couple of years, or causes a controversial incident akin to the Mercedes' collision at Belgium 2014, it will be much easier for both driver and team to seek a fresh start.
After all, following the Spa-Francorchamps crash, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff told BBC Sport's Andrew Benson how the team would have to contemplate changing their driver lineup if Hamilton and Rosberg could not co-exist and there is an emphasis on both to continue to play nice.
Should they prove unable to, it seems it is now Nico, not Lewis, at greater risk of losing out.
Kimi Raikkonen One Step Closer to Staying at Ferrari
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The news of Hamilton's contract renewal will be welcomed by Kimi Raikkonen, who has seen off one of the main threats to his seat at Ferrari.
Although team principal Maurizio Arrivabene had recently told Bild (h/t Crash.net) how he wouldn't "need" a driver of Hamilton's calibre to partner four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari was regarded as the prime, if not only, destination available to the reigning world champion if he decided to leave Mercedes.
If that move had happened, and Hamilton traded silver for scarlet red, it would have almost certainly signalled the end of Raikkonen's Formula One career.
It is true that the 2007 world champion still isn't completely safe.
Despite Arrivabene telling ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson that Raikkonen merits a contract extension for 2016 after the Bahrain GP, the Italian, when asked by Bild (h/t Motorsport.com), failed to deny speculation that Ferrari had an agreement in place to sign Valtteri Bottas, the Williams driver.
Yet Raikkonen, for his part, seems relaxed about staying on for next year, telling the pre-Monaco FIA press conference how he is "very certain what will happen."
And with Hamilton now locked in at Mercedes, it appears Kimi is one step closer to extending his stay at Ferrari for another year.
Valtteri Bottas' Path to Ferrari Clears
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With Mercedes executive director Toto Wolff among Valtteri Bottas' advisers, it once seemed inevitable the Finnish driver would join the Silver Arrows one day.
Indeed, Wolff told Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t Sky Sports) that Bottas—whose current team, Williams, are powered by Mercedes engines—would be among the front-runners to join the German marque when either Hamilton or Rosberg departed the team.
Despite Bottas being a considerably cheaper and long-term alternative to Hamilton, sentiment has clearly not played a role in Wolff's thinking. But as one door closes in the Finn's face, another has well and truly opened.
Maurizio Arrivabene's refusal to deny his interest in Bottas, as mentioned on the previous slide, suggested something is going behind the scenes regarding a move to Ferrari.
The recent comments made by Bottas' manager, Didier Coton, to Autosport's Ian Parkes, in which he admitted to looking at "all the different possibilities" in his efforts to help Valtteri win races and become world champion, all but confirmed it.
In pre-season, Bottas told the official F1 website how he wants "to be in the quickest car available," which, if a Mercedes is out of reach, will almost certainly be a Ferrari.
Whether he will arrive at the Prancing Horse in 2016 or '17 is unclear, but it is increasingly obvious that he will replace Raikkonen at Ferrari in the relatively near future. And perhaps Valtteri, in the short-term, will benefit from the clarity of knowing where his future is heading.
If Bottas can't drive for Mercedes, he'll simply just have to try to beat them.
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Fernando Alonso Frozen out Again
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According to Jonathan Noble in a print edition of Autosport magazine last October, Fernando Alonso's sheer desperation to drive for Mercedes culminated in the Spaniard trying to swap seats with Hamilton for 2015 in an audacious move.
The plot, however, failed spectacularly, and Alonso—having arranged his release from Ferrari on the eve of the Japanese GP, according to Sky Sports' Pete Gill—saw his existing seat snatched by Sebastian Vettel, who was instantly replaced by Daniil Kvyat at Red Bull.
Left in the cold by the top teams, Alonso was left between a rock (a sabbatical) and a hard place (a return to McLaren), with the two-time world champion eventually settling for the latter.
Although McLaren boss Ron Dennis told BBC Sport's Andrew Benson that Alonso's three-year contract contained no clauses that would allow him to leave for Mercedes, there was no question the Spaniard would have looked to take full advantage of any stalemate between the Silver Arrows and Hamilton.
But with Hamilton now secure at Mercedes, a wealth of young talent available at Red Bull and Ferrari having moved on from the Alonso years—they wouldn't take them back, would they? Would they?!—Fernando seems frozen out yet again and is likely to remain at McLaren for 2016.
Unless, of course, he roles the dice once more.
Toward the end of last season, Pat Symonds told Auto Motor und Sport (h/t Motorsport.com) how Williams were not ready to sign a driver of Alonso's quality, claiming his lofty expectations would "disturb the progress the team is making."
Williams' progress, though, has stagnated this year, and a relentlessly ambitious, forceful personality such as Alonso could be just what the team, currently the third-fastest in F1, need to take the next step.
So could Fernando encourage his old friends at Ferrari to sign Valtteri Bottas as soon as possible, thus opening a space at Grove alongside former team-mate Felipe Massa? Or, having demolished and demotivated Massa in their four seasons together, could Alonso add insult to injury by taking the Brazilian's seat next season?
Watch this space.
Daniel Ricciardo, Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg Going Nowhere Fast
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Perhaps the most puzzling aspect of the silly season, even at this early stage, is the complete lack of speculation surrounding the future of Daniel Ricciardo.
The Australian was the standout performer of last season, winning three times and ending 2014 as one of the elite drivers on the grid, but as a direct result of Red Bull Racing's fall from grace, he has been prevented the chance to further enhance his stock this season.
Yet unlike former team-mate Sebastian Vettel, who fled the ship just as it began to sink, Ricciardo looks likely to pin his hopes on what for now appears to be an unlikely Red Bull turnaround.
Prior to his contract renewal, Hamilton had held the key to the driver market and had the power to spark it into life by moving on.
But his stay at Mercedes means the merry-go-round should be relatively static this year, making it less likely that the likes of Ricciardo, Romain Grosjean and Nico Hulkenberg will find themselves shuffling into truly competitive seats for 2016.
Although there is a sense that Grosjean has already missed his chance at a top team, this could prove to be particularly damaging in the case of Hulkenberg, who risks being ejected from F1 entirely.
As we wrote on the eve of the campaign, Force India's financial troubles—deputy team boss Bob Fernley told Sky Sports' Pete Gill of "cash-flow issues" in pre-season—could leave the German, who provides no notable sponsorship funds to the Silverstone-based outfit, exposed to the threat of pay drivers.
Hulkenberg recently implied to Motorsport.com's Adam Cooper that he could be forced to choose between Formula One and the World Endurance Championship, in which he is competing in this year's Le Mans 24 Hours with Porsche, admitting his future is "completely open."
It would be a shame if those three talents were unable to race at the very front of F1, but Hamilton's contract extension has limited the options available to Ricciardo, Grosjean and Hulkenberg.
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