
NBA Draft 2015: The Dark-Horse Contender for Every Top 5 Pick
When the 2015 NBA draft lottery order was unveiled, prognosticators and analysts quickly matched each club with its most probable dance partner.
The front-running prospects for every top-five pick quickly became apparent. These highly coveted studs have outshined their peers, and they'll likely get scooped up in a blink on June 25.
But there are also dark-horse contenders for those spots, some less-obvious choices who shouldn't be ruled out.
Our under-the-radar candidates are based on team needs and the players' overall potential at each destination. We examined which unsung competitors fit well with the lotto teams' rebuilding efforts, as well as those who will rise up draft boards during the predraft process.
You've already heard plenty about Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and Duke's Jahlil Okafor topping the charts, and the other anticipated lottery pairings have been widely publicized.
Let's dissect the sleepers, the largely overlooked options who could surprise everyone on draft night.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: D'Angelo Russell
1 of 5
The Favorite(s): Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor
The Dark Horse: D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State G (6'5", Freshman)
Likelihood: Slim
It's hard to imagine a scenario where the Minnesota Timberwolves don't tab Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor with the No. 1 overall pick. They need a dynamic big man, and these two standouts are ripe for the plucking.
But if there's a dark horse worth scouting, it's Ohio State guard D'Angelo Russell. Not only is he the most valuable prospect behind Towns and Okafor, he's also an attractive shooting asset to enhance their perimeter threat.
Minnesota made the fewest triples in the Association in 2014-15, and it ranked 25th in three-point shooting percentage (.332). Russell would help in both areas and make the club less dependent on Kevin Martin moving forward. He hit more than 41 percent from distance as a freshman, and his size and pull-up prowess presents an exciting off-guard option.
Meanwhile, Russell's playmaking skills could make him the most dangerous creator in this draft class, something that's not easy to overlook. His mix of passing vision and shooting offer Flip Saunders the flexibility to mix and match him with Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine.
Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com cautioned those who are tempted to quickly dismiss everyone outside of Towns and Okafor: "If it's about need, you go with Okafor or Towns. But Russell can't be overlooked. (They) have to consider him."
Russell should be in the No. 1 conversation because no other guard in this draft can match his versatility, and his best-case scenario involves All-Star and top-five point guard status. At the very least, that should keep him on the radar.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: D'Angelo Russell
2 of 5
The Favorite(s): Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor
The Dark Horse: D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State G (6'5", Freshman)
Likelihood: Moderate
At No. 2, the Los Angeles Lakers will be eyeing the post player that falls to them. If the Minnesota Timberwolves select Karl-Anthony Towns, L.A. is widely projected to choose Jahlil Okafor.
And much like the Wolves' situation, D'Angelo Russell is the dark horse that shouldn't be slept on.
The one-and-done Buckeye would mesh well with both Kobe Bryant and Jordan Clarkson. He'd help general manager Mitch Kupchak round out the Lakers' backcourt of the future, a vital task in the franchise's return to contention.
Trevor Lane of Silver Screen & Roll explained that Russell's versatility and Clarkson's compatibility could make for a devastating combo:
"...One thing that stood out this past season was just how well Clarkson plays alongside another aggressive, attacking guard. In the rare moments when Jeremy Lin was having a Linsanity flashback, he and Clarkson were flying around the court on the offensive end, driving to the basket, kicking the ball out to open shooters and becoming twin whirlwinds of pick-and-roll precision.
D'Angelo Russell's shooting and passing ability would allow him to be a more effective partner in crime to Clarkson than Lin ever was.
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Lane also noted that if L.A. is inclined to chase the crop of top-tier free-agent centers this summer, adding a guard in the draft would work superbly. Additionally, Russell would help space the floor for Julius Randle's slashing and low-post havoc.
Towns and Okafor remain the primary targets because it's hard to find productive big men that young, and the Lakers may wind up pursuing Rajon Rondo in free agency, per Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding. But if Russell shows he can improve his playmaking efficiency and defend NBA-caliber slashers, he should be a legitimate candidate to land in SoCal.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Justise Winslow
3 of 5
The Favorite(s): D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay
The Dark Horse: Justise Winslow, Duke SF (6'6", Freshman)
Likelihood: Slim to Moderate
If the first couple of picks unfold according to widespread projections, the Philadelphia 76ers will almost certainly take D'Angelo Russell at No. 3.
But if red flags or unforeseen events make Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay unavailable, the next priority on Philly's list is a small forward. Duke's Justise Winslow is the top contender at the 3 position, and he packs a potent two-way punch.
He would fill a gaping hole for the Sixers, finally giving the squad a long-term swingman solution. The 6'6" do-it-all leaper will become a dangerous slasher and off-ball weapon, and his defensive interchangeability is invaluable.
Winslow has also demonstrated that he can make a splash from beyond the arc.
He owns a quick, fluid shooting motion that fueled some promising three-point efficiency: 57.1 percent in the NCAA tourney and 41.8 percent for the entire season. Philly can count on him to keep defenses honest by sinking in-rhythm attempts, something the club struggled to do in 2014-15. The Sixers hit just 32 percent from downtown, good for 29th in the Association.
Winslow's defensive range and energy are reminiscent of Jimmy Butler, and his southpaw slashing cadence looks like a poor-man's James Harden. That combination easily warrants top-five consideration, and it's the kind of blend that will push the Sixers toward the playoffs.
We've seen general manager Sam Hinkie devalue the guard spot before with his platoon of playmakers. There's a chance this sways him toward choosing a wing in today's NBA, where point guards are more replaceable.
4. New York Knicks: Kristaps Porzingis
4 of 5The Favorite(s): Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow
The Dark Horse: Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia PF/C (7'1", 1995)
Likelihood: Moderate
The New York Knicks may soon be shedding one disappointing European acquisition in Andrea Bargnani, who's set to become a free agent on July 1. It's easy to understand why Knicks fans may be uneasy about picking up another, especially one with a similar general playing style. Don't let unfamiliarity or Bargnani be the reason you're scared of Kristaps Porzingis, though.
The Latvian stretch big is probably not atop the 'Bockers' draft big board. Speedy guard Emmanuel Mudiay from the Chinese Basketball Association and Duke's star forward Justise Winslow are the front-runners. However, the 7'1" youngster brings a truckload of upside along with tangible skills.
If you want to put him in a box and label him as the next Bargnani or a shoddy facsimile of Dirk Nowitzki, you're missing out on the value he offers New York's frontcourt and as a future NBA player.
He shot 36.6 percent from three-point land in Spain's ACB League and Eurocup play at 19 years old, and his shooting motion aces the eye test. His above-the-rim physical tools will help protect the cup, and his shaky rebounding and post-up offense should improve with added strength. Porzingis moves exceptionally well for a 7-footer, so the long-range production will be complemented by slashing and mobile defense.
In a choice between Mudiay, an international enigma himself, and Porzingis, ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton leans toward the Latvian: "Having succeeded against far tougher competition in Spain, [Porzingis] figures to have more immediate impact, and he's only seven months older than Mudiay...I would take Porzingis."
Pelton might be in the minority, but the Porzingis path should not be discounted or overlooked.
5. Orlando Magic: Mario Hezonja
5 of 5The Favorite(s): Justise Winslow, Kristaps Porzingis
The Dark Horse: Mario Hezonja, Croatia SG/SF (6'8", 1995)
Likelihood: Moderate to Strong
There are some intriguing, high-upside prospects slated to fall to Orlando at fifth overall.
Kristaps Porzingis is a risk-reward asset who could supply the Magic with long-range fireworks and rim protection. Justise Winslow is another enticing prize because he can bolster the squad's wing depth and immediately contribute to its already-athletic rotation.
And lurking in Europe is the biggest possible prize, Mario Hezonja.
Croatia's richly talented swingman has offered flashes of brilliance during small doses of playing time for Barcelona in the ACB League. Like Porzingis, he's a gamble who holds tremendous untapped potential.
He's arguably the best shooter in the draft, having knocked down 38.7 percent of his three-point tries in Spain's ACB League this past season. Hezonja also possesses the physical tools and budding skills to play both small forward and shooting guard.
Those two factors help his underdog candidacy, because the Magic could use a swingman who can truly play both positions and upgrade their below-average perimeter accuracy. He'd collaborate alongside shooting guard Victor Oladipo as the 3, and he could also operate as the 2 next to combo forwards Aaron Gordon and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom is a restricted free agent this summer.
It's understandable if Orlando is hesitant to entertain Hezonja. His sample size in Spain has been small (just 15.5 minutes per game), and we don't know whether he has the intangibles to access his NBA ceiling.
But his shooting mastery, top-shelf athleticism and improving creativity should garner consideration. Hezonja can stretch defenses while heating up as fast as a bonfire, and the Magic's newfound ability to space the floor from multiple positions would make them much tougher to guard collectively.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are gathered from Sports-Reference.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR





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