UFC 187: B/R Staff Main Card Predictions
Even with the UFC's top star in Jon Jones out, UFC 187 carries on this weekend with one of the biggest pay-per-view offerings of the year. Headlined by two championship bouts, it should be a very important night of MMA for the UFC at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Up for grabs in the main slot is the light heavyweight championship. Anthony Johnson looks to finish one of the sport's biggest career turnarounds when he takes on Daniel Cormier, a former title challenger for the vacant belt left behind by Jones.
Then, there's a middleweight title defense, as Chris Weidman looks to halt Vitor Belfort's title bid. It's truly a stacked card from top to bottom.
With that, we assemble the B/R predictors who have guided you through this year so far. Here are the picks from James MacDonald, Sean Smith, Craig Amos, Scott Harris and yours truly, Riley Kontek.
Staff Records
1 of 6
I am out of first place and hellbent on taking it back. Watch out, James MacDonald.
Scott Harris finds himself at the bottom, Craig Amos isn't doing much better, and almost all is right with the world.
Standings
James MacDonald: 50-25
Riley Kontek: 49-26
Sean Smith: 48-27
Craig Amos: 42-33
Scott Harris: 41-34
Joseph Benavidez vs. John Moraga
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Kontek: Joseph Benavidez is the Junior dos Santos of the flyweight division. As long as the current champion stays in power, he will stay No. 2 and beltless. Of course, that means most matchups at this point should be his for the taking, especially against John Moraga. Moraga is better than most flyweights in the company, but he doesn't match up well with Benavidez. The Team Alpha Male product should thrive.
Benavidez, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Moraga's underrated. I have always enjoyed watching him ply his stock-in-trade, namely his hand power and his better-than-advertised wrestling game. But Benavidez should take this one. He may be the most athletic fighter in the promotion, top to bottom, and his superior grappling will be too much for Moraga if and when this hits the ground.
Benavidez, Unanimous Decision
Smith: Although Moraga has shown improvement on the ground with two straight submission victories, he still falls well behind Benavidez when it comes to grappling. The Team Alpha Male member should be able to hold his own when standing and shut Moraga down with takedowns and top control.
Benavidez, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Moraga has improved consistently since joining the UFC ranks, but he still hasn't beaten one of the flyweight elites. He's fought two of them in John Dodson and Demetrious Johnson; now he gets a crack at Benavidez. Will the third time be a charm, or will Moraga strike out? I await the guttural, grunting umpire noise.
Benavidez, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: Moraga is one of those fighters who just falls short of the elite. He is excellent and well-rounded, but he isn't special in any one area. There are no big weapons in his arsenal. Benavidez may well be the best fighter in the division outside of Johnson, so this could be a rough night for Moraga.
Benavidez, Submission, Rd. 2
Travis Browne vs. Andrei Arlovski
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Kontek: The big boys are set to play, and you shouldn't blink. Not only are Andrei Arlovski and Travis Browne familiar with one another because of the Greg Jackson connection, but they have a knack for stealing consciousness. Here, the biggest key is who has the better chin. Browne has shown in recent times that he can take a butt kicking, but Arlovski can definitely be put down. That's why "Hapa" should be able to move one step closer to a title shot.
Browne, KO, Rd. 1
Harris: Andrei Arlovski will be laying our orderlies in his nursing home some day. Everyone picks against him, then he slams home a big hook and all the haters are silenced. This time, though, the haters will be pretty loud at the end. Browne welcomes a slugfest; he likes them, he thrives in them and he wins them. He has the power, the size, the diversity of skill and the youthful exuberance to handle the venerated Belarusian.
Browne, KO, Rd. 2
Smith: Knocking out Antonio Silva made Arlovski a contender once again. However, the resurrection of the former UFC champion was a product of being in the right place at the right time, as he was matched up with a seemingly crumbling Silva. I don't see Arlovski climbing any higher in the heavyweight rankings than he already has. Browne brings a halt to Arlovski's winning streak Saturday.
Browne, KO, Rd. 1
Amos: Arlovski wears the "glass jaw" label, but he has only been knocked out once since 2009, and he's fought some tough guys since then. He won't be a pushover for Browne, but the Hawaiian should still pull out the win. He's the more aggressive fighter and has the power to floor just about any living man.
Browne, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald: It's tough to get a read on Arlovski. A weak chin doesn't just go away, so how he has managed to remain vertical so often, never mind win a series of fights, just bemuses me. His chin will get tested in this one, though. Browne will eventually catch the former UFC heavyweight champ, and when he does, it should be lights out.
Browne, TKO, Rd. 1
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Donald Cerrone vs. John Makdessi
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Kontek: Kudos to John Makdessi for taking this late-notice bout with Donald Cerrone, but outside of a fair payday and name on his record, Makdessi is in all sorts of trouble. He struggled against Anthony Njokuani earlier in his career, and Cerrone has way more tools to beat him. Whether it's on the feet or on the ground, Cowboy will show why he's in a different class than The Bull.
Cerrone, Submission, Rd. 2
Harris: I'm a Makdessi guy, and I don't want to underrate him. But his patient game of working a strong jab and closing the distance for thudding exchanges won't work against the twinkle-toed Cerrone. Cowboy will put kicks on the ends of his movement and confound the Canadian injury replacement.
Cerrone, Unanimous Decision
Smith: This might be fun for a minute or two, but it's a shame Khabib Nurmagomedov had to be pulled from his bout with Cerrone at UFC 187. Cerrone is at least as good a striker as Makdessi and has numerous submission wins compared to his opponent's zero victories on the ground. If he can get the Canadian to the ground, Cowboy should be able to stop this bout early.
Cerrone, Submission, Rd. 1
Amos: It's about time Makdessi found himself in a high-profile fight. He's earned it. It's unlikely that he'll earn a victory in it, though. Cerrone's stand-up has evolved so much, his submission game is top-notch and he has a surfeit of momentum rolling into this one.
Cerrone, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: It's unfortunate that Nurmagomedov was forced to pull out. This should be a fun fight, but I don't expect it to be nearly as competitive. Cerrone is just better in every area. Makdessi might have his moments, but Cowboy should pick up yet another win here.
Cerrone, Unanimous Decision
Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort
5 of 6
Kontek: We haven't seen post-testosterone-replacement-therapy Vitor Belfort fight yet. Will he still be superhuman like he seemed before, or will he be a shell of his former self? Although that question is important, Chris Weidman is the better fighter regardless. He has power wrestling to lean on, unheralded striking and good toughness. He has stood in there with Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida, which should prepare him well here.
Weidman, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Vitor Belfort gets exposed in this fight. Post-performance-enhancing-drug Belfort will not have the explosion or quickness to trouble Weidman on the feet or stay clear of the champ's freight-training power double. Expect extended ground-and-pound and a battered Brazilian phenom.
Weidman, Unanimous Decision
Smith: Without testosterone replacement therapy and inactive for the past 18 months, Belfort is unlikely to be at his best this weekend. Even under optimal conditions, though, Belfort would have big problems against Weidman. The Brazilian is going to have a tough time stopping Weidman's takedowns and will likely get roughed up on the ground. I wouldn't even put it past Weidman to end this bout with a submission.
Weidman, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Is this fight really happening? Finally happening? It seems eons ago when it was first booked. I'm sufficiently excited now that it has arrived, though I'm not all that intrigued by the competition factor. Maybe Belfort will pull off the upset, but Weidman is a sizable favorite—and for good reason. He'll stay competitive on the feet, use his wrestling to overwhelm Belfort and win the match on the mat.
Weidman, Submission, Rd. 4
MacDonald: Belfort looks like someone has let the air out of him since TRT was given the elbow. I honestly don't know how he'll perform, but even at his most juiced, I would still pick Weidman. His grappling is superior, and his understanding of distance will give Belfort fits on the feet.
Weidman, Submission, Rd. 4
Anthony Johnson vs. Daniel Cormier
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Kontek: This is an interesting one. Daniel Cormier was training for wrestler Ryan Bader before this fight but is now taking on a striker in Anthony Johnson. Johnson was training for a wrestling striker in Jon Jones but now gets the wrestler in Cormier. Cormier can throw hands, but against Johnson, that would be foolish. He needs to wrestle, but seeing how Johnson handled Phil Davis and his takedowns, it's hard to imagine Cormier being overly successful on the shoot, though he definitely has a better acumen than Davis. Johnson will become champion, proving to be the best turnaround in the sport outside of Robbie Lawler.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris: Cormier is the safe play here. You can pick him, spend 25 minutes pretending you're enamored with his wrist control, then nod sagely as they strap on the belt. And hey, there are worse things. Cormier would make a good champion for several reasons. But I didn't get into last place in these picks by playing it safe. Anthony "Rumble" Johnson has great size and good wrestling, and we all know about his stand-up. One outside exchange will be one too many for DC.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 1
Smith: Opposite any other contender in the light heavyweight division, I'd probably say Johnson was going to become the new 205-pound champion Saturday. However, Cormier is a rough matchup for Rumble, given his elite wrestling abilities. I see Cormier taking away Johnson's scary knockout power with takedowns and potentially handing Rumble another submission loss.
Cormier, Submission, Rd. 3
Amos: Cormier is the favorite, and it makes sense that he is. He has the style to shut down Johnson's striking and has passed every test in his career, save the Jon Jones test. But Johnson has just looked so good lately. He's been taking out solid opponents without breaking much of a sweat. He's my pick to be the new champ.
Johnson, KO, Rd. 3
MacDonald: Cormier is the safe bet here, and that's bad news for the UFC. Convincing the fans that he is the real champion will be a challenge. You can't rule out the possibility that Johnson will land one of his missiles, but Cormier is crafty, and his wrestling may be good enough to put Rumble on his back consistently.
Cormier, TKO, Rd. 3
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