Hawks vs. Cavaliers: Analysis and Predictions for Eastern Conference Finals
At long last, it's official: The top-seeded Atlanta Hawks will square off against the second-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers for the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
The matchup was momentarily cast in doubt after the Cavaliers learned they would be without Kevin Love (shoulder) for the remainder of the postseason, but they proved to be resilient in a knockdown, drag-out affair against the Chicago Bulls.
Atlanta has been battle-tested too, evidenced by back-to-back six-game slogs against the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards. As the Hawks' offense looks to revert back to the world-beating form it maintained with frightening consistency throughout the regular season, the Cavaliers will try and thwart their best efforts with an improving defense and the combined star power of LeBron James and a hobbled Kyrie Irving.
With the Eastern Conference Finals set to host the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds for the second year in a row, it's time to preview what's to come between the Hawks and Cavaliers before the action tips off Wednesday night.
Head-to-Head Recap
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Season Series
Nov. 15: Cleveland 127, Atlanta 94
Dec. 17: Atlanta 127, Cleveland 98
Dec. 30: Atlanta 109, Cleveland 101
March 6: Atlanta 106, Cleveland 97
The Hawks won the season series in convincing fashion, but that 3-1 tally is accompanied by a pretty noteworthy caveat.
Two of Atlanta's three wins came prior to the Cavaliers' mid-January awakening, which was facilitated by LeBron James' return from a two-week absence and midseason trades for Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert.
With that core in place, the Cavaliers went 34-10 over the season's final four months, the best mark of any Eastern Conference team during that span. However, Atlanta did down Cleveland convincingly on March 6.
At the very least, Atlanta proved it can concoct a formula potent enough to match the Cavaliers' wicked scoring prowess. The question is, will the Hawks' all-for-one approach be enough to overcome Cleveland's superior quotient of star power?
Series Schedule
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All Eastern Conference Finals games will be played at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT. Games 5-7 are denoted with asterisks and will only be played if necessary.
Game 1: Cleveland at Atlanta, Wednesday, May 20
Game 2: Cleveland at Atlanta, Friday, May 22
Game 3: Atlanta at Cleveland, Sunday, May 24
Game 4: Atlanta at Cleveland, Tuesday, May 26
Game 5*: Cleveland at Atlanta, Thursday, May 28
Game 6*: Atlanta at Cleveland, Saturday, May 30
Game 7*: Cleveland at Atlanta, Monday, June 1
It's a good thing the Hawks locked up the East's No. 1 seed, as they may need every last second of available playing time at Philips Arena to take down the Cavaliers.
Through two rounds, the Hawks own a 5-1 record at home, compared to Cleveland's 4-1 at Quicken Loans Arena. But on the road, Atlanta is merely .500, while the Cavaliers are holding steady at 4-1.
However, the Hawks' home record is a tad misleading. Though they've won 83 percent of their home contests in the playoffs, they're averaging just 98 points per game at Philips. Cleveland, on the other hand, is rattling off 103.2 points at the Q.
As a matter of fact, Atlanta's road-scoring clip of 101.7 points per game is noticeably higher than its output (98.0) back in Georgia. Cleveland's trend is flipped in that regard, as it has scored 96 points per game in away games.
Having said that, the Cavaliers' margin of victory on the road (7.2 points per game) is higher than their home mark (6.8), which should send shivers down Atlanta's spine.
Key Postseason Stats
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Atlanta
Offensive Rating: 102.0 (9)
Defensive Rating: 98.2 (2)
Net Rating: 3.9 (4)
At some point, the Hawks' long-distance looks are going to start falling. When they do, the Cavaliers will be forced to scramble for solutions.
To date, the Hawks have been shooting threes at just a 34.3 percent clip in the postseason—including 32.9 percent shooting against the Washington Wizards.
Defensively, Atlanta has been sound overall—even improving upon its regular-season efficiency rating of 100.7. However, the Hawks are surrendering a postseason-worst 1.02 points per possession in isolations, according to Synergy Sports.
Going up against a Cavaliers team that ranks first in postseason isolation frequency could spell trouble. Prepare for plenty of clear-outs from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.
Cleveland
Offensive Rating: 108.2 (1)
Defensive Rating: 98.8 (T-4)
Net Rating: 9.5 (1)
For a team that's played its last six postseason games without Kevin Love, the Cavaliers leading all postseason qualifiers in offensive rating is pretty remarkable.
And here's a statistical tidbit to chew on: The only teams residing in the top five when it comes to both offense and defense are the Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.
Foreshadowing much?
Hawks' X-Factor: Kyle Korver, Shooting Guard
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It makes no sense, but Kyle Korver's defense was actually more stable than his offense against the Washington Wizards. He tied Paul Millsap for the team lead in steals (nine) and ranked second behind Al Horford in blocks (nine) during Atlanta's second-round series.
At times, those contributions masked the fact he shot 31.3 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from three despite launching seven triples per game.
It's now time for a fresh start—one that includes regular doses of long-range buckets.
With his uncharacteristic showings against Washington a thing of the past, Korver will attempt to snake around screens and blitz a Cavaliers defense largely devoid of elite ball-stoppers on the perimeter. As Cleveland will presumably try to conserve LeBron James' energy, it would be foolish to have him chase Korver from sideline to sideline while navigating picks.
Instead, Cleveland will likely rely on a combination of Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith to get the job done, with a little Matthew Dellavedova sprinkled in during desperate times. Shumpert is the team's best bet to play the role of ball-stopper, but Korver will be on a mission to regain confidence.
"The playoffs are even more mental than physical," Korver told the New Yorker's Charles Bethea. "There are a lot of emotional games. Lots of tight games. We were fortunate to use the last few weeks of the season for rest, because we had a little lead in the standings. But we kind of lost a bit of our edge. We’ve been trying to find that again lately."
Just keep an eye on his raw three-point total as a barometer of the Hawks' success. In the playoffs, the Hawks are 4-1 when he drills at least four threes, compared to 4-3 when he hits three or fewer.
Cavaliers' X-Factor: Timofey Mozgov, Center
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Timofey Mozgov isn't in the business of getting dunked on anymore.
Through 10 playoff games, Mozgov has been an impenetrable force in the paint, allowing opponents to shoot 34.7 percent at the rim on 7.2 attempts a night, according to SportVU.
After Cleveland finished the regular season ranked a pedestrian 16th in opponents' paint points, according to TeamRankings.com, Mozgov has single-handedly fortified the team's once-patchy interior defense.
Not only is he an imposing force capable of disrupting bigs' rate of production in the post and in the pick-and-roll, but he acts as an intimidating force capable of deterring guards from driving to the cup unimpeded.
On the Cavaliers, no regular rotation player has a better postseason defensive rating than Mozgov, who's sitting pretty at 90.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. With Mozgov on the bench, meanwhile, the Cavs hemorrhage 107.9 points per 100 possessions to opponents, the highest off-court mark of any Cleveland player.
"The Cavs pull in nearly six percent more boards with Mozgov than without him, and they block more shots, as well," numberFire's Brandon Gdula wrote. "The difference in block percentage (just 1.0 percent) doesn't actually do Mozgov's shot blocking any justice. His personal rate (7.5 percent) is currently tied with Tim Duncan's mark in 2001-02 for 21st all time in the playoffs."
Don't let the basic numbers fool you. Although Mozgov only scored double figures once against the Chicago Bulls (15 points in Game 4) and failed to tally a double-digit rebounding total a single time in the second round, he was one of the team's most impactful players.
Mozgov's contributions may seem unquantifiable within the flow of any given game, but rest assured, his ability to alter outcomes remains significant.
Obvious Adjustment Atlanta Must Make: Harvest More Balance
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Going up against the offensive juggernaut that is the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Atlanta Hawks will need more from the bench that buoyed them all season long.
Their 94-91 Game 6 win over the Washington Wizards was a perfect example of why.
Although four of Atlanta's five starters finished with a plus/minus rating of at least plus-five (DeMarre Carroll landed at an even zero), all four players off the bench recorded ratings of minus-five or worse.
That can't become standard practice.
Shooting percentages aside, Atlanta's bench has underwhelmed in the postseason, ranking 12th in scoring margin (minus-15) among second units. Conversely, Cleveland's reserves rank No. 2 overall by the same metric, outscoring the opposition by 13 points.
With that disparity in mind, the pressure is on Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, Mike Muscala and the trigger-happy Pero Antic to give the Hawks' starters a sufficient breather and keep things close throughout.
Considering Schroder was the only member of that group to post a positive plus/minus (plus-five) against the Wizards, head coach Mike Budenholzer needs to hope his bench foursome can act as a collective net-positive—or at worst, a net-neutral unit that can tread water.
Obvious Adjustment Cleveland Must Make: Scheming to Stop the 3
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All in all, the Cleveland Cavaliers played sound defensive ball against the Chicago Bulls.
However, one brief trend did emerge during the course of that six-game set that's worth paying particularly close attention to against the three-point happy Atlanta Hawks.
While the Cavaliers held Chicago to 33.9 percent shooting from three in their second-round series, Cleveland was noticeably weak at defending triples in its two losses. During those contests, the Cavaliers got burned by Chicago's 41 percent conversion rate from distance. In their four wins, the Cavs held Chicago to 30.7 percent shooting from deep.
There's more.
In Cleveland's two defeats, it failed to corral Mike Dunleavy, who drilled three triples in each game. To put that production in perspective, 60 percent of his made threes during Round 2 came in two contests.
Dealing with Dunleavy is one thing. Defending Kyle Korver is another.
Sure, Korver backslid against the Washington Wizards (28.6 percent shooting from three), but he flicked home 44.4 percent of his treys in regular-season showdowns with the Cavaliers.
The key to slowing him—and the rest of Atlanta's perimeter scorers—down will be Iman Shumpert's disciplined defense.
Ten games into the playoffs, opponents are shooting 24.4 percent on threes against Shumpert, according to SportVU. That's 11.1 percent lower than their average.
"He's brought grit, toughness, the defensive mindset," LeBron James said, according to USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. That's the first thing he thinks about. In a sport full of a lot of egos, to be able to have teammates and guys like Shumpert who just care about team success, it means a lot to a locker room and we're very thankful to have him."
Final Prediction
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The Cleveland Cavaliers did an admirable job coping with Kevin Love's absence during the Eastern Conference semifinals, but it wasn't because the offense ran seamlessly without him.
Though the offense had its moments, it only topped 100 points twice in the span of six games. Strange as it seems, defense is what steadied the Cavs in that series.
Head coach David Blatt's modified starting five, featuring Kyrie Irving, Iman Shumpert, LeBron James, Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, has posted a defensive rating of 91.7 in 67 minutes over the course of seven playoff games.
That's a small sample size, but that minuscule total is 6.5 points per 100 possessions better than the Golden State Warriors' league-leading mark from the regular season.
The Hawks will fight valiantly, but it's hard to ignore the regression they've experienced on offense over the past three weeks. Parlay it with the Cavs' defensive improvement, and you come away thinking their title hopes are high.
A sudden revival from three-point range could inflate the Hawks' chances, but Cleveland's defense is starting to come together at an inopportune time for the top seed.
Combine those recent shortcomings with Atlanta's inferiority from a superstar standpoint, and LeBron James' squad should ride into the Eastern Conference Finals as favorites.
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers in six
Series MVP: LeBron James
Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @AlecBNathan.
All statistics are current as of May 15 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
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