San Francisco 49ers Need Justin Smith Back for Continuity and Stability

Imagine sitting across from San Francisco 49ers defensive end Justin Smith at a poker table.

He wouldn’t blink, and he may breathe only occasionally. His hands would move to receive cards or bet, but his stare would be continuous. He would say nothing for hours before taking all your money, thanking everyone for a pleasant evening and then disappearing into the night.

Smith is playing a different sort of poker right now with 49ers general manager Trent Baalke, who wants to know soon if the three-time All-Pro intends to return for a 15th season.

Instead he’s mostly been greeted by that stone face.

“He’s a hard guy to read,” Baalke told PFT Live Thursday, reports Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com (via NFL.com’s Conor Orr). “He's a guy who likes to live on the edge a little bit and keep people waiting. But if he chooses to do so (return), we'll welcome him back with open arms. And if he chooses not to, we're prepared for that as well."

Baalke isn’t wrong with the latter half of that statement. He’s prepared if Smith chooses to end a possible Hall of Fame career, making sure of that by signing veteran defensive end Darnell Dockett and investing a first-round pick in Arik Armstead.

But another truth is left out of Baalke’s words: Both the general manager and a rookie head coach desperately need the stability Smith can provide after an offseason in San Francisco that’s had so very little of it.

Yet in mid-May there's still no update on his retirement decision, as Bay Area News Group's Cam Inman noted, sharing Tomsula's comments regarding the matter:

The 49ers’ offseason defensive exodus began with the fall of a mighty hammer, when linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland retired.

Willis had slugged through two injury-ravaged seasons, but the seven-time Pro Bowler was still among the league’s most dynamic linebackers when healthy.

Meanwhile, the loss of Borland was arguably more devastating. He showed high-level field awareness in his first and only season, which led to an incredible 43 run stops despite playing only 202 snaps in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus (tied for fourth among all inside linebackers).

The 49ers will finally get middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman back from his severe knee injury suffered during the 2014 NFC Championship Game. But until he faces contact, it’s unclear exactly which NaVorro Bowman will be returning: The guy who’s recorded 140-plus tackles in three of his four NFL seasons or some other far lesser version.

Linebacker Dan Skuta is gone too, along with cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox. Now a 49ers defense that was a top-five unit during each of former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s four seasons in San Francisco is set to lean heavily on inexperienced youth if Smith doesn’t return.

Year	Rank	Yards allowed/game
2014	5th	321.4
2013	5th	316.9
2012	3rd	294.4
2011	4th	308.2

Armstead would have to play a significant role right away while likely in a rotation with fellow defensive ends Tank Carradine and Tony Jerod-Eddie. In 2014 Carradine and Jerod-Eddie logged only a combined 572 snaps, per PFF.

There’s promise in their youth but also plenty of uncertainty. Dockett is a safety net up front, but similar to Bowman, doubt follows him after a torn ACL. And the cloud over Dockett is heavier, as he’s a soon-to-be 34-year-old who hasn’t taken a meaningful snap since 2013. He also still hasn’t been cleared for football activities yet.

The 49ers need some continuity under a brand-new coaching staff headed by Jim Tomsula. And they need a reliable defensive end to anchor the front seven, one who has demonstrated proven effectiveness against the run and pass.

Smith checks off all of those boxes.

His usage gradually decreased over the past four seasons as the effort to keep an aging body fresh became a central focus. But that matters little, because even if he’s used situationally on, say, 60 percent of the 49ers’ defensive snaps, Smith will still be providing both pass-rushing support and leadership. PFF's Jeff Deeney provided Smith's "snap percentages in games played":

Smith has declined somewhat, and until we find a way to halt the aging process, that will keep happening with athletes of all shapes and sizes.

But his drop-off in play has indeed been minimal. Keep in mind Smith’s decreased playing time and then note the number of defensive stops he recorded in 2014. A 35-year-old who played less than 70 percent of his team’s snaps still finished with 21 defensive stops, ranking 18th among the 47 3-4 defensive ends, per PFF.

For the 12th time in his career, Smith also finished with five-plus sacks. Looking at his tape in 2014, we see a familiar sight: an overpowering presence with a quick first step.

A prime example of both characteristics came way back in Week 1 during a win over the Dallas Cowboys.

The 49ers were backed up against their own end zone, and at the snap Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith tried to establish inside position. On a play designed to get the ball out quickly, amid red-zone chaos, the pass-rushing Smith just needed to be held up for a split second. Then Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo would likely have enough time to find wide receiver Dez Bryant.

Smith had other ideas as he violently sprung forward.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

Before the Cowboys’ Smith could set his feet he was already being pushed aside. A forceful arm wrenched on his left shoulder, and suddenly a 320-pound offensive lineman was staggering. His assignment had capitalized on the slightest misstep and opening.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

Smith promptly chased Romo down for a loss of nine yards, eventually forcing Dallas to settle for a field goal.

Those images don’t show a defensive end who’s lost his strength. They don’t show a pass-rusher who will struggle to be effective if given an important role, albeit possibly a limited one. And combined with Smith’s 2014 production, they certainly don’t show someone who will flatline if asked to be a front-seven pillar once more.

What we see is a veteran who can still be a critical cog for one more season.