Ranking the Top 15 Best NBA Free Agents Available This Summer
For better or worse, NBA fortunes will change in free agency this summer.
Some problems will be fixed as clubs find the perfect players to address their needs. Some problems will be created as teams miss out on their top option or simply guess wrong as to which player that should be.
So many things go into a successful free-agent signing: opportunity, fit, chemistry, cost. If one of those elements isn't right, it can throw the entire transaction off.
That makes pursuing the right player imperative for a productive offseason. Team needs can impact who that player is, but we have removed that factor from the equation to build a shopper's guide for league executives of the 15 best available players.
We considered anyone who can hit the market this summer. We then separated the players based on what will make them attractive to potential employers: talent, production, age, potential and the versatility to fit multiple systems.
With those parameters in place, let's get to ranking.
15. Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
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Age: 22
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 36.4 three-point percentage, 16.7 PER
Tobias Harris' stats are impressive for a player of any age.
He was one of only six players to average at least 17 points, six rebounds and one three-pointer per game this season. Everyone else on that list has made multiple All-Star appearances: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony. And Harris had the third-highest true shooting percentage in the group (55.1), trailing only Durant and James.
Add Harris' age to the equation and his numbers look even more ridiculous. He has the versatility to man either forward spot and a very intriguing skill set for today's game.
But he's not without his faults. His isolations and post-up plays can disrupt offensive flow. And his off-ball defense is very much a work-in-progress.
But there's a lot of room for him to grow and ample time to do it. If the Orlando Magic don't want to make a significant investment in his future, some other team surely will.
14. Tim Duncan, PF, San Antonio Spurs
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Age: 39
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 22.6 PER
It's a clever saying, but are we all 100 percent certain that Father Time's record remains unblemished? If Tim Duncan hasn't knocked him out yet, the 39-year-old has at least dropped him to the canvas a few times.
Duncan was absurdly effective in his 18th NBA season. His per 36-minute marks were close to (17.3 points, 11.4 boards) and in some cases better (3.7 assists, 2.4 blocks) than his Hall of Fame-caliber career contributions. He finished 13th overall and second among power forwards with a 5.22 real plus-minus, per ESPN.com.
Somehow, he upped the ante during the postseason. He tallied at least 21 points and 11 boards in four of the San Antonio Spurs' seven playoff games.
"I continue to be amazed by Tim Duncan," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said, via Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News. "To watch him is pretty spectacular, in itself. Even our players shake their heads at his performance at both ends of the floor."
In terms of talent, Duncan can hold his ground with anyone on this list. But it's hard to rank him any higher as a free agent, when 1) he could choose to retire, 2) if he returns, he won't stick around for long and 3) there is no way he's leaving the Alamo City.
13. Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat
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Age: 33
FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 21.5 points, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 21.4 PER
Like Duncan, Dwyane Wade is a better player than this ranking reflects. And also like his 2013 and 2014 NBA Finals adversary, Wade probably doesn't have the longest basketball future ahead of him—and definitely doesn't have a present that pulls him away from his Miami Heat.
Wade's first season in South Beach since LeBron James' exit wasn't that much different from the year before the two future Hall of Famers joined forces. In 2009-10, Wade shot 47.6 percent from the field and averaged 26.4 points, 6.5 assists and 4.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. This season, he converted 47 percent of his field-goal attempts and had a similar per-36 stat line: 24.3 points, 5.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds.
But the major difference between then and now is health. He missed eight games combined during that campaign and the previous one. Injuries have cost him an average of 19.5 games over each of the past four seasons.
A player who once relied heavily on otherworldly athleticism now draws the bulk of his production from skills and smarts. And his box scores still rank among some of the league's best.
12. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets
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Age: 27
FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 17.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 22.7 PER
If NBA free agents came with warning labels, Brook Lopez's would be uncomfortably long.
He's a big man (7'0", 275 lbs) who has had multiple battles with foot problems. History may not have a bigger red flag for NBA players than that. For all of his size, he's struggled to grade out as even an average rebounder (7.3 boards per game for his career). As recently as early March, he was coming off the bench after losing his starting spot.
A free-agent deal for Lopez is no more than a leap of faith.
But the Brooklyn Nets are ready to take that plunge, per Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News, and they surely aren't the only ones. Why? Because the reward trumps the risk. If teams are signing the down-the-stretch Lopez—the one who rampaged for 21.0 points, 9.5 boards and 2.0 blocks a night over the final 22 games of the regular season—they might be adding the league's most offensively skilled center.
His medical red flags won't go away (though he hasn't missed a game since Dec. 21), and he can still disappear at times on the glass. Those concerns are enough to keep him from ranking any higher. But he could potentially be some club's franchise player, and there are guys ahead of him here who don't have that type of ceiling.
11. Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 30
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 20.0 PER
Versatile Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap finds himself in that gray area between goodness and greatness. He's not what we typically think of as a star (although he's been an All-Star each of the last two seasons), but he's far too talented to be considered a role player—especially when he's capable of handling so many different roles at once.
He's a gifted scorer from the post to the perimeter. He can create shots off the dribble, bury them from beyond the arc or find them for his teammates. Defensively, he has the speed to chase around smaller players and the strength to body up bigger ones.
Millsap simply does it all.
"It feels strange and just a tad hyperbolic to call Paul Millsap a flawless basketball player, but in so many ways, it's perfectly reasonable," wrote Michael Pina of Rolling Stone and Bleacher Report. "Few players exhibit his versatile balance on offense and defense, and an even smaller number are able to maintain such all-around consistency."
Millsap's age and size (6'8") will work against him on the open market, and clubs might question whether he'd have the same success without having so many good players around him. But his skills and stats could work in any system at something reasonably close to a superstar level.
10. Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat
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Age: 29
FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.3 points, 4.5 assists, 50.1 field-goal percentage, 17.4 PER
Free agency may have come a year later than Goran Dragic would have liked.
It's probably a stretch to say he damaged his stock this season, unless his messy trade-deadline divorce from the Phoenix Suns put off suitors. But the buzz around him isn't quite what it was when he secured the Most Improved Player award in 2013-14.
His stat line regressed nearly across the board, featuring significant declines in points (16.3, down from 20.3), three-point shooting (34.7 percent, down from 40.8) and player efficiency rating (17.4, down from 21.4).
Starting the year in the Suns' overcrowded backcourt didn't help Dragic, and he had to scramble to adjust after a midseason trade to the Miami Heat. But excuses don't change the fact he lost both quantity and quality.
That being said, his production is unique. Only two players averaged at least 16 points on 50 percent shooting and four assists in each of the last two seasons: Dragic and Kevin Durant.
Dragic isn't the youngest free agent in the pool, but his age shouldn't be a great concern for this contract. He should have his pick of suitors, but Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post said there's enough mutual interest between Dragic and Miami to get a deal done quickly.
9. Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
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Age: 25
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 16.4 PER
Draymond Green's stat line probably isn't jumping off your screen right now, but it should be. The versatility in his production is unlike anyone else's in the entire league.
And there's nothing exaggerated in that statement. He was this season's only player to average at least 11 points, eight rebounds, three assists and one triple per game. And that makes no mention of his nightly contributions of 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks; only five other players averaged one of each.
Generously listed at 6'7", Green routinely locks down bigger, stronger players in the low post. And his ability to step out on perimeter players is the key to the Golden State Warriors' top-ranked, switch-happy defense.
"He's the key figure," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told NBA.com's John Schuhmann, "because as the power forward, he's frequently involved in screen-and-rolls. And because he's quick enough and active enough to switch out onto a point guard, we're able to stifle a lot of the first options out of the opponent's attacks."
Green probably can't reverse the fortunes of a bad team, but he can glue a great one together. He's an elite defender, an expert passer, a relentless rebounder and a blossoming complementary scorer. With only three seasons under his belt, he has time to continue building on this growing foundation. The Warriors almost certainly won't let him go.
8. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
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Age: 26
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 15.0 rebounds, 11.5 points, 71.0 field-goal percentage, 21.0 PER
DeAndre Jordan could be a foot shorter and a 100 pounds lighter, and his athleticism would still turn heads. But the fact he packs so much explosiveness into a 6'11", 265-pound frame allows him to do some ridiculous things.
Like joining Wilt Chamberlain as the only qualified players to ever shoot above 70 percent from the field over an entire season, for instance, or becoming the first player to pace the NBA in rebounding and field-goal shooting for consecutive campaigns since Chamberlain in 1971-72 and 1972-73.
Jordan has a genius-level understanding of his limits. He never strays outside of his lane. For his career, more than 81 percent of his field-goal attempts have come within three feet of the basket. This season, that rate climbed to 91.8. He consistently crushes down dunks, either by crashing the offensive glass or diving to the rim out of pick-and-rolls.
At the opposite end, he's grown into being one of the game's most intimidating interior defenders. He plays a disruptive style—only he and Anthony Davis averaged at least 2.0 blocks and 0.9 steals both this season and last—which can ignite any transition attack.
He has some obvious limitations (none greater than a woeful 41.7 career free-throw percentage), and his game might not expand from where it is. But the Los Angeles Clippers appreciate what he brings and shouldn't balk at giving him a major-money deal.
7. Greg Monroe, PF, Detroit Pistons
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Age: 24
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 21.2 PER
Greg Monroe doesn't run well or space the floor. He doesn't play above the rim on either side of the ball.
Teams that don't want to get involved in the Moose's bidding will point to all the things he doesn't do. But interested clubs will only concern themselves with the one thing he does: produce.
Want a double-double machine? Monroe had the 12th-most in the league (35), despite missing 13 games and spending the others inside the Detroit Pistons' horribly spaced offense. Need an offensive anchor on the low block? He scored more points on post-up plays (415) than all but four players: Al Jefferson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.
Monroe's game might seem a bit dated, but he can play. He rebounds well, scores consistently and passes tremendously for his size (6'11", 250 lbs). He's a cerebral player, and his instincts have always looked a few years ahead of his age.
There's a lot to like about Monroe and a very good chance there will be even more to like as he gets older. Not everyone will look past his weaknesses, but those who do will be thrilled with his strengths.
6. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age: 26
FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 36.7 three-point percentage, 18.8 PER
Last summer, you wouldn't have sounded crazy calling Kevin Love a top-five player in the entire league. This time around, you wouldn't be crazy to have him outside of this free-agent class' top five.
Perceptions change quickly, and nothing good happened to Love potential free-agency during his debut season with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Playing on a winning team for the first time in his career, Love found himself as the No. 3 offensive option. His defensive issues led to some late-game benchings.
Joining forces with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving figured to cost Love some volume production, and it did. His points and minutes averages dipped to their lowest levels since his sophomore season of 2009-10. But what no one expected were the hits his efficiency took. His shooting percentages slipped from the field (45.7 to 43.4) and from three (37.6 to 36.7), and his PER plummeted by more than 30 percent (26.9 to 18.8).
Adding injury to insult, he battled back spasms during the year and saw his first-ever playoff run derailed by a dislocated shoulder.
He has a $16.7 million player option for next season. He shouldn't commit to a long-term deal before the new TV money rolls in next summer, but he could be one of the more interesting players to monitor. His reputation needs a lift, and it's hard to say how he'll go about getting it.
5. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Age: 25
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 37.8 three-point percentage, 21.3 PER
Jimmy Butler does a lot of things at good-to-great levels; gambling is apparently near the top of that list.
The Chicago Bulls swingman bet on himself last summer. He could have inked a "four-year, $40 million-plus offer" in late October, sources told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. That didn't look like a bad deal considering how he played in 2013-14: 39.7 percent shooting from the field, 28.3 percent from three.
Still, Butler knew he could do better. And he's been climbing the free-agent ranks ever since.
He led the 50-win Bulls in scoring and played the best defense on the team. He posted personal bests in points, rebounds and assists (3.3). His shooting percentages soared to 46.2 and 37.8. His stock climbed even higher, as he made his All-Star Game debut and easily earned Most Improved Player honors.
Butler produces like a star, but he fights like he's working on a 10-day deal. His two-way game makes him an obvious max-contract candidate. The Bulls will give him that money, whether they offer it themselves or match someone else's.
4. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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Age: 23
FA Type: Restricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 22.0 PER
You know what's usually a good clue that an NBA player is about to break the bank? When he does something only Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon have ever done.
Armored-truck drivers, meet Kawhi Leonard—only the third player in league history to win both Finals MVP and Defensive Player of the Year. He took home the defensive hardware this season, despite missing 18 games and only averaging 31.8 minutes when he did suit up.
His defensive play was that dominant. Powered by his hawkish 7'3" wingspan and monstrous mitts, he led the league in steals and held opposing small forwards to a minuscule 12.9 PER, according to 82games.com.
San Antonio's most powerful defensive weapon proved plenty potent at the opposite end, too. Over his final 23 games of the season, he averaged 19.2 points per contest while shooting 53.9 percent from the field and 40.6 percent from three.
He's had a historically significant career already, and this is only the beginning. It's hard to say where his story might go next, but the setting isn't going to change anytime soon. He's not even expected to seek out contract offers elsewhere, and the Spurs are ready to pay him the max, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
3. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
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Age: 29
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 35.2 three-point percentage, 22.8 PER
No one knows how LaMarcus Aldridge's free agency will play out, probably not even the four-time All-Star himself. But if you look around, you can find clues pointing him to nearly every team with money.
He's reportedly on the radar of the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Sources told Stein that "San Antonio sits near or at the top of Aldridge's list...unless the Cleveland Cavaliers were to lose Kevin Love and then somehow manufacture a way to sign-and-trade for him." The Boston Celtics plan on chasing both Aldridge and Wesley Matthews, per CSNNE.com's A. Sherrod Blakely.
If Aldridge wants a major market, he could jump to the Knicks or Lakers. If he wants an immediate contender, he might find one in San Antonio...or Cleveland...or maybe Dallas.
If he wants to join forces with a rising coaching star, he could team with Brad Stevens in Beantown. Or if Aldridge wants continuity—and a supporting cast who has helped him to 105 wins over the last two seasons—he could stick with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Clear as mud, isn't it? But the mystery is understandable. Aldridge is the league's only player to average at least 23 points and 10 rebounds both this season and last. He's worth all the hassle; that was true before he added a three-point shot to his arsenal.
But there are still two potential free-agents-to-be who bring more to the table.
2. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
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Age: 30
FA Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 21.7 PER
Marc Gasol's resume is nearly as strong as they come.
His stat line isn't sexy, and a lot of times his game isn't, either. There's no one particular thing that makes him great—and that's the essence of his greatness.
"He passes, he scores, he defends, he rebounds," wrote ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan, "as such, he can turn a team around in short order as the focal point on both offense and defense."
Gasol has the vision, creativity and selflessness to serve as the rare point-center. He can dismantle a defense from the elbow or low block, seamlessly transitioning through scoring and distributing roles. His understanding of defensive angles is so impressive, it's surprising he hasn't received an honorary degree in geometry yet.
Maybe that will be part of the package from one of his many suitors. The Memphis Grizzlies obviously want him around, but the San Antonio Spurs might see him as the perfect heir apparent to Tim Duncan. The New York Knicks need an anchor for their triangle offense. The Los Angeles Lakers are desperate for someone to take the torch from Kobe Bryant.
If Gasol is willing to listen to what's out there, things could get hectic as clubs clamor for his services. But the madness wouldn't even compare to the mayhem that the No. 1 player could create if he had a sudden change of heart about his surroundings.
1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Age: 30
FA Type: Player Option
2014-15 Notable Numbers: 25.3 points, 7.4 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 25.9 PER
There was no other possible way for this ranking to end. Even if LeBron James would only be a free agent by title alone.
"All of James' rhetoric—and his business relationships—leave the strong indication that he would not (or reasonably could not) leave Cleveland in free agency again," wrote Northeast Ohio Media Group's Joe Vardon. "But he is widely expected to decline his player option on his current contract and negotiate a new one-year deal with a player option."
This feels like such a forgone conclusion, Cleveland Cavaliers fans have little reason to pay attention, let alone actually worry. When (not if) he opts out, he'll take another short-term deal that maximizes his salary and keeps him in line to collect when the new TV money arrives.
It's simply the right business move to help him collect as much money as possible. As a four-time MVP, two-time champion and current "Best Player on the Planet" title-holder, he has unquestionably earned the right to make that call.
No one causes more problems on the court for their opponents than James. No one else can take over a game in so many different ways. The gap between King James and everyone else is narrowing a bit, but the league hasn't come close to witnessing an actual changing of the guard.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
