Ajax's Richairo Zivkovic: Can't-Miss Prospect's Bad First Impressions

Dutch centre-forward Richairo Zivkovic, 18, arrived at Ajax as a bound-to-be-successful No. 9 prospect with world-class potential.

Behind the veneer of praise initially lavished on Zivkovic, there are now escalating concerns.

Coup

Scoring 11 Eredivisie goals for Groningen as a 17-year-old last season, Zivkovic looked like becoming a "top player for years to come," per Michiel Jongsma at Benefoot.

Marcus Berg | Groningen → Hamburg: €10/£8.7 million (22 years old; 2009).

Luis Suarez | Groningen → Ajax: €7.5/£5.1 million (20 years old; 2007).

Tim Matavz | Groningen → PSV Eindhoven: €7/£6.2 million (22 years old; 2011).

Stefan Nijland | Groningen → PSV Eindhoven: €4/£3.2 million (19 years old; 2008).

Richairo Zivkovic | Groningen → Ajax: €1.9/£1.5 million (17 years old; 2014).

Relative to Groningen selling previous centre-forwards, Ajax not only bought Zivkovic at a discount, but avoided being embroiled in a Suarez-like media circus.

Entangled in a legal dispute with Groningen, Suarez was intent on forcing a transfer to Ajax, per his autobiography: 

"

It was about a five-day wait for the Court of Arbitration to make their decision.

In the meantime, I had to carry on training at [Groningen]. You can imagine what the fans were saying to me.

One morning they told me that I had lost the case. I had two training sessions ahead of me and I just couldn't move, my head was gone, my thoughts elsewhere.

"Luis, don't you want to train?" asked [then-Groningen manager] Ron Jans.

I told him that, no, I had no desire to train after receiving the news. I didn't feel like doing anything. I felt sunk. I just wanted to go home and cry.

I couldn't believe what [Groningen] was doing to me.

"

Suarez revealed Ajax had originally offered €5/£3.4 million, but Groningen having legal backing procured an additional €2.5/£1.7 million.

"We didn't have to let [Suarez] go at that time because the court said we were right," a Groningen spokesman said, per Andy Hunter at the Guardian. "It was only afterwards when Ajax made a better offer, and we decided it was the best offer, that we decided to do the deal."

Unlike the acerbic, controversial, and lawyer-centric Suarez transfer negotiations, Groningen general manager Hans Nijland was relaxed over selling Zivkovic to Ajax.

"We wanted to extend his contract, but Richairo has shown to have ambitions. He wants to take a higher step. That's his right," Nijland said, per Algemeen Dagblad (h/t FourFourTwo). "The talks with Ajax have been very enjoyable."

If Ajax sell Zivkovic, 10 per cent of his future transfer fee goes to Groningen, per Gerrit van Leeuwen at Sky Sports.

Ajax director of football Marc Overmars tacked on an extra two years to Zivkovic's contract, bolstering his transfer stock.

"We have complete faith in Richairo. Because of his age, we were only able to contract him for three years," Overmars said, per Ajax's website. "He's since turned 18 [years old] and shortly after that, we agreed to add on two years."

Jong Ajax

Zivkovic playing for Jong Ajax in the Eerste Divisie (Dutch equivalent of the Championship) is spun as a positive—he is getting accustomed to the club.

But there are two fallacies with that thinking.

1. Zivkovic outperformed Arkadiusz Milik and Kolbeinn Sigthorsson in league-play last season.

2013/14	Milik	Sigthorsson	Zivkovic
Goals/Games	2/18	10/30	11/33
Shots Per Goal	9	5.9	5.3
Shooting Accuracy %	50	44.1	65.5
Starting % Games Played	27.7	66.7	48.5

Kicker rated Milik the worst player at Augsburg and Zivkovic possesses a higher upside than Sigthorsson.

Ajax manager Frank de Boer should have started Zivkovic from the get-go on merit.

2. Daley Sinkgraven, 19, is not subject to the Jong Ajax treatment.

Signed from Heerenveen for €7/£5.3 million in the January transfer window, Sinkgraven has played 586 more minutes in the Eredivisie for Ajax than Zivkovic this season.

Sinkgraven has started 88.9 per cent of Eredivisie games he has been involved in under De Boer.

Why De Boer Doesn't Rate Zivkovic

Despite scoring 18 goals in 25 Eerste Divisie games for Jong Ajax, including eight goals in a five-game run, Zivkovic has yet to start an Eredivisie game under De Boer.

Prior to earning De Boer's confidence, Milik was Stefan Kiessling's understudy at Bayer Leverkusen and a second-rate footballer at Augsburg.

Failing in Germany gave Milik a chip on his shoulder. 

"Of course, Stefan was better than me, but I thought that maybe [Bayer Leverkusen] would give me a chance...unfortunately, it did not happen," Milik said, per Piotr Kozminski at UEFA's website. "Ajax have a great reputation for their work with young players and I would like to take advantage of it."

Milik scoring six goals in a 9-0 KNVB Cup win over JOS Watergraafsmeer showed his desperation, the ferociousness of his drive, and willingness to cash in.

De Boer has yet to see these attributes from Zivkovic, who has scored once in 114 minutes spread over seven Eredivisie games.

Zivkovic is 1/5 in on-target shots/total shots and fails to convert 80 per cent of scoring chances, per Squawka.

Zivkovic's shot conversion rate, per Squawka

Whereas, Milik leads Ajax in Eredivisie goals (11), which is why his loan from Bayer Leverkusen has been extended into a permanent deal for €2.8/£2 million.

Having a contract until 2019 indicates that Milik is rated by De Boer as Ajax's No. 1 centre-forward.

Fischer's average positioning and heat map, per WhoScored

Converting Viktor Fischer—a No. 11—to a No. 9 in Ajax's 3-0 win over Cambuur is further evidence that De Boer is comfortable without Zivkovic.

Vindicating De Boer's tactical adjustment, Fischer scored twice against Cambuur.

Performance wise, Zivkovic has not impressed in the Eredivisie, but red flags over his character could be the underlying reason why he has yet to earn the trust of De Boer.

Kicking Ludcinio Marengo during Jong Ajax's 5-0 defeat to FC Volendam is an inexcusable and thuggish act from Zivkovic.

Losing possession, Zivkovic attempts to trip up Marengo, but he doesn't go down. 

Zivkovic then wallops Marengo with a low-kick and has his "What? Me?" moment in reaction to receiving a red card from referee Davy Otto.

It is one of several Zivkovic transgressions.

Netherlands U19 manager Aron Winter excluded Zivkovic from the squad last November.

"Richairo has been sent home because of unprofessional conduct," Winter said, per Voetbal International (h/t Peter McVitie at Benefoot). "He had several chances."

Ajax fined Zivkovic for being late to training in April, per Michael Bell at Football Oranje.

Earning reprimands at club, league and national level is an inglorious trifecta from Zivkovic.

Zivkovic's Future

Miralem Sulejmani | Heerenveen → Ajax: €16.3/£12.9 million (19 years old; 2008).

Zlatan Ibrahimovic | Malmo → Ajax: €7.8/£4.7 million (19 years old; 2001).

There was a period in Ibrahimovic's career where he was on course to be a monumental transfer bust at Ajax, per his autobiography: 

"

All the headlines and comparisons with [Marco] van Basten were just turned against me, and I started to be seen as a disappointment, a bad purchase.

I was replaced in the front line by Nikos Machlas, a Greek who I'd hung out with quite a lot, and in those situations when I get dropped and lose my form, my head starts buzzing, like: "What am I doing wrong? How am I going to break out of this?"

"

Unlike Ibrahimovic, who developed into one of the best footballers in the world, Sulejmani never overcame his tribulation at Ajax.

Struggling to maintain his weight and being hit-and-miss on the field, Sulejmani is shaping up to be another Arnold Bruggink—unfulfilled. 

It is up to Zivkovic to avoid emulating Sulejmani by using Ibrahimovic as motivation to succeed at Ajax.

"

Na debuut in 1 week in de #CL, #Eredivisie #KNVBbeker @AFCAjax ook overeenkomst met @nikefootball getekend #topweek pic.twitter.com/PSW3RmbFcs

— Richairo J. Zivkovic (@RichairoJZ) December 19, 2014"

+allanjiang.

When not specified, statistics via WhoScored.com.