Miami Dolphins: Realistic 2015 Projections for Every Major Stat Category
The Miami Dolphins have seen a lot of changes in personnel during the offseason—changes that should wind up improving their stats for the better.
They've revamped their wide receivers, with Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews being the only two holdovers from 2014. The same was done to the defensive line, as out went Randy Starks and Jared Odrick, and in came Ndamukong Suh and second-round pick Jordan Phillips.
The Dolphins will also have a new running back in fifth-round pick Jay Ajayi, who at the very least will split carries with Lamar Miller.
What does this mean in terms of statistics? On offense the thought is it should be improved, as the Dolphins have better fits personnel-wise to Bill Lazor's offense.
On defense, having a more aggressive defensive line should help out in terms of some statistics, but linebacker and secondary are still concerns this season. The main hope is the defensive line should improve both of those positional units by being dominant.
Let's take a look at some 2015 projections for key stats.
Passing Offense
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2014 Stats
Passing Yards: 4,045 (11th)
Completion Percentage: 66.4 percent (5th)
Passing Touchdowns: 27 (t-12th)
Interceptions: 12 (t-13th)
Quarterback Rating: 92.8 (14th)
Take a look at these numbers, then put them into context.
Ryan Tannehill joined the 4,000 club in 2014 and was only 64 yards shy of breaking into the top 10 in passing yards.
Had he gained those extra 64 yards (only an extra eight yards per game), he would've passed Tom Brady.
This despite the fact that Tannehill's offensive line was putrid, grading out as a whole at minus-67.8 via Pro Football Focus.
The jury will be out on whether the new receivers will be an upgrade in 2015 or not, as the receiver unit, while frustrating at times, wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed, only dropping 4.7 of the passes thrown to it, which is near league average.
What the new receivers should add is yards after the catch, as Jarvis Landry proved to be great in this aspect with 443 yards after the catch. Greg Jennings had 195 for the season, and Kenny Stills had 178.
With more passing yards gained due to more catches being made, that should improve all statistics. Expect the Dolphins to pass less but complete more passes.
Projected 2015 Statistics
Passing Yards: 4,115
Completion Percentage: 66.6 percent
Passing Touchdowns: 30
Interceptions: 13
Quarterback Rating: 96.3
Pass Defense
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2014 Stats
Passing Yards Against: 3,557 (6th)
Passing Touchdowns Against: 27 (20th)
Interceptions: 14 (14th)
Sacks: 39 (T-16th)
The Dolphins pass defense looked good based on volume of yards, as it only allowed 3,557 yards in the air.
Unfortunately, it couldn't produce too many turnovers, with only 14, and sacks were tougher to come by than you would expect from a defensive line that employed the talents of Cameron Wake, Olivier Vernon and Jared Odrick.
Does an improved defensive line clear up some of these problems? It should, as blockers will be occupied with Ndamukong Suh more so than they were with Jared Odrick, thus freeing up not only Miami's two edge-rushers, but also any linebackers and corners sent into blitz, such as Chris McCain (who will get some playing time at defensive end), Reshad Jones or cornerback Bobby McCain (he will be sent in to blitz from time to time).
I'm willing to say that the Dolphins will increase their sack total by almost one-fourth. That's how confident I am in this season's defensive line.
As for the touchdowns and interceptions, I still see those being hard to come by. Miami's linebackers, while better in coverage than in 2014, will still get beat on short throws, and the secondary is too much of an unknown to really be optimistic about in 2015.
Projected 2015 Stats
Passing Yards Against: 3,620
Passing Touchdowns Against: 27
Interceptions: 16
Sacks: 50
Rushing Offense
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2014 Stats
Rushing Yards: 1,872 (12th)
Yards Per Carry: 4.7 (2nd)
Rushing Touchdowns: 12 (13th)
I said the Dolphins would be passing the ball less but getting more yards.
When it comes to running the ball, there will be plenty more carries, leading to more yards as well.
The yards-per-carry average will likely go down due to there being more attempts, but don't expect it to go down too much.
You'll see carries split up three ways: for balance sake, I'm looking at 200 total carries each for Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi, with another 30 to 35 going to Ryan Tannehill via read-option runs.
This will lead to a very productive run game for Miami.
Projected 2015 Stats
Rushing Yards: 2,017
Yards Per Carry: 4.5
Rushing Touchdowns: 16
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Rushing Defense
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2014 Stats
Rushing Yards Against: 1,937 (24th)
Yards Per Carry Against: 4.3 (21st)
Rushing Touchdowns Against: 13 (T-19th)
This was an unmitigated dumpster fire for Miami.
It used to be only one type of running back could beat the Dolphins, as they had no problem stopping the bell-cow backs that gained tough yardage but always had issues with the smaller, shiftier backs.
Only one type of running back could beat the Dolphins in 2014 as well—that type was called "any."
The presence of Paul Soliai was surely missed, and Randy Starks looked like a shell of himself. Because of this, the Dolphins signed Ndamukong Suh, then drafted Jordan Phillips, and both of those acquisitions will drastically improve Miami's run defense.
How so? Look at Suh's impact in Detroit. The Lions led the NFL in run defense, only allowing 1,109 yards for an average of 3.2 yards per carry and 69.3 yards per game. Only eight touchdowns were scored against their run defense.
The numbers won't dip that drastically, which will partially be attributed to the fact that five games on their schedule come against four of the top 10 rushing teams in the NFL in 2014, and two more games will be played against the Buffalo Bills and their revamped run game. But the run defense will look a lot better, and those yards will be hard to come by.
Projected 2015 Stats
Rushing Yards Against: 1,825
Yards Per Carry Against: 4.2
Rushing Touchdowns Against: 15
Record
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2014: 8-8
Thanks to an inconsistent defense and an offense that found its groove as the season went on, Miami finished 8-8.
This was a disappointment, especially since at one point in the season, they were 7-5 and in the driver's seat headed towards a playoff berth. Then came a December home game against Baltimore that—thanks to an offense that faltered, a defense that completely collapsed and some horrid coaching decisions—resulted in a loss for the Dolphins and the start of a late-season 1-3 spiral.
Will 2015 be any different?
The talent on the roster tells me yes. An improved run defense, improved run game and improved pass game should give this team at least three more victories.
I just don't have much faith in the coaching, and the secondary doesn't seem like they're ready yet—save for the great, yet aging Brent Grimes.
I'm going to split the difference here, then round it up.
Projected 2015 Record: 10-6
Statistics provided by pro-football-reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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