NBA Draft 2015: Updated Lottery Odds and Stock Watch for Top Prospects
For the most part, the top of the 2015 NBA draft has been settled. Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell will, in all likelihood, come off the board in some order as the first four picks in June.
The quartet has maintained its spot atop most draft boards dating back to college basketball's regular season, with the order of players largely depending on team need. Duke's Justise Winslow and Latvian forward Kristaps Porzingis likely have a thing or two to say about nudging their way into the top four, but their status is largely static as well.
By my count, eight of the first 10 players selected are already set. Barring a major injury or off-court issue, their predraft journeys are largely uninteresting. Sure, one or two pingpong balls for them may be the difference between L.A. palm trees and Minneapolis snowmen. For our purposes, though, those differences matter not.
As always, the real meat of the draft begins in the late lottery and spans all the way through pick No. 60 if you're a true zealot. With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the stocks for top prospects heading into lottery night.
NBA Lottery Odds
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 25.0% | 21.5% | 17.8% | 35.7% | — | — | — |
| New York Knicks | 19.9% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 31.9% | 12.3% | — | — |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | — |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 11.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 35.1% | 16.0% | 1.2% |
| Orlando Magic | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | — | 26.1% | 36.0% | 8.4% |
| Sacramento Kings | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | — | — | 44.0% | 30.5% |
| Denver Nuggets | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | — | — | — | 60% |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Miami Heat | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Indiana Pacers | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Utah Jazz | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| New York Knicks | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Philadelphia 76ers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Los Angeles Lakers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Orlando Magic | 0.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sacramento Kings | 4.0% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denver Nuggets | 23.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Detroit Pistons | 72.4% | 16.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
| Charlotte Hornets | — | 81.3% | 12.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | — | — |
| Miami Heat | — | — | 87.0% | 8.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | — |
| Indiana Pacers | — | — | — | 90.7% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Utah Jazz | — | — | — | — | 93.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Phoenix Suns | — | — | — | — | — | 96.0% | 1.8% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | — | — | — | — | — | — | 98.2% |
Stock Up
Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
Upshaw is a massive human being with the type of athletic upside that makes NBA teams overlook a whole lot of things. He has the longest standing reach and wingspan of any player who made the trip to Chicago, measuring in at a pro-ready 258 pounds to boot. Add in his freakishly huge hands, and the picture of a pick-and-roll beast and defensive specialist starts to emerge.
"On talent alone," a league executive told Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com in March, "if he would have stayed throughout the year, he could have crept all the way up to the middle of the first round, maybe late lottery. He was having a great year."
Unfortunately for Upshaw, he hasn't stayed. Anywhere. He was dismissed from his two collegiate stops, both for unspecified violations of team rules. His one season at Fresno State was laden with punishments that included multiple suspensions before his dismissal. Nineteen games was all he lasted at Washington, though he did enough on the court to likely garner first-round consideration.
The physical tools are there. They always have been. Upshaw's probably never going to be much of an offensive player, but he can fill a DeAndre Jordan Lite role if he keeps his head together and develops better basketball instincts. Guys that big, that athletic, are natural risers in this process.
For Upshaw, his past probably caps him in the mid-20s.
Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas
Surprise, surprise. Cliff Alexander is a physical marvel. Expected by anyone who has seen him in person to wow in the physical portion of the combine, Alexander did just that. His 7'3" wingspan more than makes up for any concerns about his 6'8.5" height, and his 5.8 percent body fat was one of the lowest among big men.
It was a disappointment to see Alexander eschew the athletic testing, but suffice it to say teams walked away more comfortable with him as a first-round choice.
Touted as one of the best high school players in the country, Alexander endured an awful one-season stop at Kansas. He averaged 7.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game before eligibility issues cost him the last month. There was no real positive progress; Alexander was losing minutes before being sat down for good.
That said, I'd be surprised if a team didn't wind up taking a chance on him in the late teens. Players with his reputation out of high school don't lose it all in one year. Alexander still has the potential to be an absolute defensive menace with his combination of size, speed and athleticism. Offensive production might not ever get to the level you'd hope, but there's a place in the league for this kid.
He'll be drafted based on pre-collegiate reputation. Call me a sucker, but I have a feeling it'll be a smart bet.
George de Paula, PG, Brazil
If you were looking for his year's Giannis Antetokounmpo, de Paula and his massive wingspan might have reached their way into that conversation. Incredibly raw in nearly every aspect of his game, the Brazilian point guard has the measurements and athleticism of a foundational defensive star.
His length and size are almost unprecedented for a point guard. We've seen plenty of 6'5" and 6'6" guys play the position before, but not with 7-foot wingspans, standing reaches better than most swingmen and hands larger than most centers. Watching him in Chicago, it was almost like seeing the next step in human evolution.
Of course, there's that little problem called the game of basketball. There's almost nothing in the way of an offensive skill set here. De Paula's basic course of action is to use his solid dribbling skills and athleticism to barrel his way to the rim and finish through contact. His jumper at this point is a prototype of a prototype; it's years away from being even decent.
The 5-on-5 drills were a perfect representation of how far de Paula has to go. He went 1-of-5 from the field, scoring just three points in 15 minutes during the first game in Chicago. His spot-up numbers in drills weren't exactly encouraging, either, as he showed a comfort from the left break and was shaky elsewhere.
That said, if a team has faith in its D-League outfit, I wouldn't blink an eye at taking him near the end of the first round. He has Gary Payton-level potential on the defensive end if he ever grasps the nuances of the sport. No one you take near the back half of Round 1 is going to have his ceiling, even if his floor is never setting foot in an NBA arena.
Pat Connaughton, SG, Notre Dame
Was trying to keep this limited to first-round prospects, but there was no bigger winner in Chicago than Connaughton. The Notre Dame product went from undrafted territory to firmly in the upper portion of the second round.
There is nothing deceptive or sneaky about Connaughton's athletic ability. His 44-inch vertical is the second-highest ever recorded at the combine and equal to the one Andrew Wiggins put up in a private workout last year. He added an 18-point outing in 5-on-5 action and was among the best overall shooters in the spot-up drills.
A league executive told Sean Deveney of Sporting News:
"He is an impressive kid. He was not really registering on anybody’s radar when this season started. But you can’t help but notice that he does all the things you want from a guy to win. He hustles, he’s tough, he can shoot it, he is impressive in interviews. I don’t know that there is a coach out there who would not want him on their team.
"
The reality is we were all too low on Connaughton. NBA teams, scouts and analysts alike. Connaughton displayed all of these skills the last two seasons at Notre Dame. He was a 40 percent three-point shooter who averaged more than seven rebounds per game while playing out of position at forward because of his athletic ability.
While his age matters, we live in an NBA universe where three-point shooting has never been more important. A three-point shooter who checks the speed, quickness and athleticism boxes? That sounds like a player heading for a long NBA career.
Sometimes we just miss. Luckily, the combine still exists to help avoid players falling through the cracks.
Other Risers of Note: Rakeem Christmas (C, Syracuse); Terry Rozier (PG, Louisville); Jordan Mickey (PF, LSU); Vince Hunter (SF, UTEP); Andrew Harrison (G, Kentucky); Mouhammadou Jaiteh (C, France)
Stock Down
Tyler Harvey, SG, Eastern Washington
A mid-major star at Eastern Washington, Harvey looked like a mid-major talent in Chicago. Harvey was 3-of-13 from the field in 5-on-5 action, wasn't all that impressive in stationary shooting drills and remains a below-average athlete. He posted the worst vertical leap among non-bigs, had disappointing top-end speed and was overwhelmed by bigger defenders at certain points.
While very quick—it's strange how big of a deviation there was from his agility and speed drills—there wasn't much there there. Harvey was viewed by some as a surefire early second-rounder and possible late first-rounder coming out of school. His elite scoring prowess and shooting ability had a Kevin Martin-esque feel, as did his lack of defensive acumen.
Now he'll be battling to ensure he's drafted at all. Given the general hesitation for selecting mid-major prospects, Harvey did himself no favors at the combine.
(To be fair, I would still take a flier on him. Harvey is one of the best shooters in this class, creates shots well off the dribble and has a future as a spot-up shooter, if nothing else. Guys like Harvey have a place in the NBA.)
Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky
That sound you hear is folks hurling themselves off the "Dakari Johnson as a first-round pick" bandwagon. Johnson, a two-year disappointment at Kentucky who saw himself twice usurped by more talented players on the depth chart, came into the draft process largely living off high school reputation. Here's a classically skilled 7-footer who bangs in the paint, hustles and still doesn't turn 20 until September.
What could go wrong?
Well, umm, pretty much everything. Johnson didn't play in 5-on-5 drills and had perhaps the worst physical testing of any player. His body fat percentage was the worst of any player listed, and it would have been even worse had Christian Wood not also come in out of shape. His 7'2" wingspan is fine overall, but not super great for a dude who measured 6'11" without shoes.
Johnson atoned a bit with an impressive time in the shuttle run—a good sign for his initial-burst quickness—but then fell back off with a 25-inch max vertical. That was more than three inches worse than any other player; Johnson was one of only three guys in Chicago to have a max vert under 30 inches.
Any chance Johnson had of going in the first is likely gone.
Jarell Martin, PF, LSU
Not sure whether Martin has a position in today's NBA? Don't worry. Neither are NBA teams. Seen as a tweener at LSU, Martin's measurements did little to answer any questions. Things looked promising after Martin measured at 6'9.25" in shoes, but his 6'9" wingspan was a major disappointment. It was the worst of any big man, and even below quite a few guards.
Martin tested well enough from a quickness perspective to give some hope he can play small forward in a pinch, but that remains a stretch. He's not even close to being a plus outside shooter at this point, and NBA teams have little use for wings who don't space the floor.
Grading Martin is not an easy task. The talent is obvious. He plays with a good motor, is a plus athlete and can make plays in the open court. Positionality is just a killer. He'll need to slim down and lock himself in a gym possibly for years for teams to be comfortable with him at the 3. He'll need to sprout longer arms and legs overnight for them to be comfortable drafting him at the 4.
Other Fallers of Note: Aaron Harrison (G, Kentucky); Chris Walker (PF, Florida); Delon Wright (PG, Utah)
Top 50 Prospects
| 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | PF/C | Kentucky |
| 2 | D'Angelo Russell | SG | Ohio State |
| 3 | Jahlil Okafor | C | Duke |
| 4 | Emmanuel Mudiay | PG | China |
| 5 | Justise Winslow | SG/SF | Duke |
| 6 | Kristaps Porzingis | PF | Latvia |
| 7 | Stanley Johnson | SF | Arizona |
| 8 | Mario Hezonja | SG | Croatia |
| 9 | Willie Cauley-Stein | C | Kentucky |
| 10 | Cameron Payne | PG | Murray State |
| 11 | Devin Booker | SG | Kentucky |
| 12 | Frank Kaminsky | PF/C | Wisconsin |
| 13 | Myles Turner | C | Texas |
| 14 | Sam Dekker | SF | Wisconsin |
| 15 | Kevon Looney | PF | UCLA |
| 16 | Jerian Grant | PG | Notre Dame |
| 17 | R.J. Hunter | SG | Georgia State |
| 18 | Bobby Portis | PF | Arkansas |
| 19 | Kelly Oubre Jr. | SF | Kansas |
| 20 | Trey Lyles | PF | Kentucky |
| 21 | Tyus Jones | PG | Duke |
| 22 | Cliff Alexander | PF | Kansas |
| 23 | Justin Anderson | SF | Virginia |
| 24 | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | SF | Arizona |
| 25 | Montrezl Harrell | PF-C | Louisville |
| 26 | Terry Rozier | PG | Louisville |
| 27 | Georges de Paula | PG | Brazil |
| 28 | Delon Wright | PG | Utah |
| 29 | Christian Wood | PF | UNLV |
| 30 | Rashad Vaughn | SG | UNLV |
| 31 | Joseph Young | SG | Oregon |
| 32 | Robert Upshaw | C | Washington |
| 33 | Mouhammadou Jaiteh | C | France |
| 34 | Andrew Harrison | PG | Kentucky |
| 35 | Jarell Martin | PF | LSU |
| 36 | Chris McCullough | PF | Syracuse |
| 37 | Dakari Johnson | C | Kentucky |
| 38 | Tyler Harvey | SG | Eastern Washington |
| 39 | Rakeem Christmas | C | Syracuse |
| 40 | Cedi Osman | PG | Macedonia |
| 41 | Jordan Mickey | PF | LSU |
| 42 | Vince Hunter | SF | UTEP |
| 43 | Pat Connaughton | SG | Notre Dame |
| 44 | Timothe Luwawu | SF | France |
| 45 | Michael Frazier II | SG | Florida |
| 46 | Norman Powell | SG | UCLA |
| 47 | Chris Walker | PF | Florida |
| 48 | J.P. Tokoto | SF | North Carolina |
| 49 | Aleksandar Vezenkov | SF | Cyprus |
| 50 | Michael Qualls | SG | Arkansas |
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
Combine stats via NBA.com
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