NBA Lottery 2015: Date and Odds of Landing Draft's Top Overall Pick
The fate of several NBA franchises lies in the hands of pure chance. On May 19, 14 teams will enter the draft lottery with hopes of landing the jackpot.
Winning the lottery has entirely reversed the fortunes of several organizations. The San Antonio Spurs wouldn't be the league's gold standard going on nearly two decades without successfully tanking for Tim Duncan. If the Cleveland Cavaliers didn't luck into two No. 1 picks, they never would have reeled back LeBron James, the biggest lottery prize since Duncan.
Before getting too carried away, this year's draft class doesn't feature a future MVP. Without a consensus top choice, whoever lands the second pick merely avoids a grueling decision between Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and Duke's Jahlil Okafor.
There's no Duncan, James, Blake Griffin or Anthony Davis to save the day for franchises in need of saving, but the top prospects are far from 2013 bad. (Anthony Bennett went No. 1 that year for—guess who?—the Cavs.) Here are the odds for each participant snagging the top pick on Tuesday night.
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 25 percent |
| New York Knicks | 19.9 percent |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 15.6 percent |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 11.9 percent |
| Orlando Magic | 8.8 percent |
| Sacramento Kings | 6.3 percent |
| Denver Nuggets | 4.3 percent |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.8 percent |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.7 percent |
| Miami Heat | 1.1 percent |
| Indiana Pacers | 0.8 percent |
| Utah Jazz | 0.7 percent |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.6 percent |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.5 percent |
Preview
More than any other team, the Los Angeles Lakers can't afford to slip.
As part of 2012's Steve Nash trade that has already cost them three picks, the Lakers sent the Phoenix Suns their 2015 first-round selection with a top-five protection. During the season, Phoenix regifted the pick to the Philadelphia 76ers in the three-team deal that landed it Brandon Knight.
The Lakers—who finished with the fourth-worst record—have around a 17 percent chance of losing their pick, per NBA.com's Mike Trudell. Two teams would have to leapfrog Los Angeles into the top three, with the choice not falling below No. 6.
That's a nightmare scenario for the Lakers, who went 21-61 during a season in which 2014 No. 7 pick Julius Randle broke his leg during his NBA debut. Meanwhile, 36-year-old Kobe Bryant took one step closer to the light, posting a dreadful 37.3 field-goal percentage during 35 games.
For the Lakers to successfully recruit one or more of the top-tier free agents this offseason, they'll need another young piece to look less like a barren wasteland stuck in purgatory until Bryant retires.
The odds are much better of the Lakers instead ascending into the top three, but they'd be just fine staying put at No. 4. They need help anywhere they can get it, but guard is a particular problem area despite Jordan Clarkson's late emergence.
D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay are both acceptable consolation prizes to the big men. In a public chat, ESPN.com's Chad Ford said he believes the Lakers rank Mudiay—who spent the year playing in China—second behind Towns and ahead of Okafor.
Either way, the Lakers will need to strike gold to match former Lakers legend Jamaal Wilkes' wild expectations, as he told Sporting News' Adi Joseph:
"With the current draft coming up and the picks they have and the cap space they have and with Mitch Kupchak being there in the driver's seat alongside Jim Buss, I expect to see serious improvement next season, which to me means competing for the playoffs. And if they're successful, go from there. I don't think it's realistic to expect them to win a championship in the Western Conference, but I think if they can make the playoffs, that would be a huge goal for them.
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On the other side, combining a top-five pick with the No. 6 selection and Joel Embiid's arrival could make 2015 the year Philadelphia's arduous rebuild yields competent basketball. Although still lacking the two superstars necessary to build a title contender, general manager Sam Hinkie would finally have significant pieces to leverage.
The pick is top-three protected over the next two years and unprotected in 2018, but that gives the Lakers too much time to persuade players to move to Hollywood.
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