NBA Lottery 2015: Every Team's Odds of Landing No. 1 Overall Pick
The NBA draft lottery is by far my favorite nonsensical television event every year.
There is no logical reason this thing needs to be on television. The actual lottery itself is actually done before the special is aired anyway. The NBA could issue a press release every year with a list of results and throw the lottery drawing itself on YouTube each time to dissuade any fixing conspiracies.
Given the monthlong wait between the end of the regular season and the lottery, one could easily argue it would make more sense to do it that way.
On the other hand: NEVER CHANGE THE NBA DRAFT LOTTERY. It is a special, beloved flower on the NBA calendar. The eclectic mix of personalities on the dais is enough to make the whole thing worthwhile.
There is the flop-sweating general manager type who knows he's headed for unemployment with another blown season. There is the unhappy star player sent there seemingly as a reminder his team came up short. Then there's the happy-go-lucky legend more than willing to make the public appearance.
It's all a fun, goofy experience that just so happens to decide the future destination of 14 young men.
The bounce of a pingpong ball is the difference between helping resurrect the New York Knicks or Los Angeles Lakers, or dealing with the Timberwolves' Minneapolis winter. It's the difference between being the next piece of the Philadelphia 76ers' under-25 superteam or being a part of whatever the heck is going on with the Kings in Sacramento.
Make no mistake: The lottery is fun and games Tuesday night, but your favorite college star is watching intently. With that in mind, here's a look at the lottery odds heading into the drawing.
2015 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 25.0% | 21.5% | 17.8% | 35.7% | — | — | — |
| New York Knicks | 19.9% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 31.9% | 12.3% | — | — |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 4.0% | — |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 11.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 35.1% | 16.0% | 1.2% |
| Orlando Magic | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | — | 26.1% | 36.0% | 8.4% |
| Sacramento Kings | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | — | — | 44.0% | 30.5% |
| Denver Nuggets | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | — | — | — | 60% |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Miami Heat | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Indiana Pacers | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Utah Jazz | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| New York Knicks | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Philadelphia 76ers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Los Angeles Lakers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Orlando Magic | 0.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sacramento Kings | 4.0% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denver Nuggets | 23.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Detroit Pistons | 72.4% | 16.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
| Charlotte Hornets | — | 81.3% | 12.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | — | — |
| Miami Heat | — | — | 87.0% | 8.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | — |
| Indiana Pacers | — | — | — | 90.7% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Utah Jazz | — | — | — | — | 93.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Phoenix Suns | — | — | — | — | — | 96.0% | 1.8% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | — | — | — | — | — | — | 98.2% |
Lottery Storylines
Who Will Land the No. 1 Pick?
The subheadline would be labeled "Who Will Win the Karl-Anthony Towns Sweepstakes?" but I'm not entirely sure that's fair. Towns has reached a near-consensus as the draft's top talent and will more than likely go No. 1. However, there are a few teams that could think long and hard about going in another direction.
The Sixers have landed big men in each of the last two drafts, though we know Sam Hinkie is unafraid to take the best player available. Getting D'Angelo Russell, whether at No. 1 or No. 3, is the best-case scenario from a basketball standpoint.
Russell is everything that Philadelphia, which quietly developed a cogent defense last season, needs in a scorer and shot-creator. If Hinkie is serious about keeping Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid, he'll select Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay regardless of draft position.
The Knicks and Lakers probably should take Towns but may be swayed by their desire to quickly climb out of the lottery. Towns, for all of his potential strengths, will not be the best player in this class next season.
That distinction will go to Jahlil Okafor, who was ready to put up 15 and eight at the NBA level a year ago. Okafor's passing ability out of the high post also makes him an interesting fit in New York if the team still insists on running the antiquated triangle.
The Detroit Pistons are the only team other than Philly that could justifiably go in another direction. Neither Okafor nor Towns is a great fit on paper next to Andre Drummond, who is arguably the only foundational player Detroit has at this point. I'd peg Detroit as a Mudiay team, which would allow Stan Van Gundy to avoid overpaying for Reggie Jackson this summer.
Will the Lakers or Heat Lose Their Pick?
The overwhelming odds are on "no" here. The Lakers will give their selection to the Sixers if it falls outside the top five, while the Heat will do the same if theirs falls outside the top 10. As it stands, the Lakers have an 82.8 percent chance of keeping their pick. The Heat fare even better at 91 percent.
In the event either team loses its selection, the results would be devastating.
The Lakers need a good draft more than any team west of New York City. They've become the new Los Angeles Clippers in an era when their Staples Center cotenants have had increasing success. Kobe Bryant is a free agent after next season and looks more broken down by the minute. Julius Randle, their great hope from last year, played all of 14 minutes before breaking his leg.
It's amazing to say this for a franchise that's gotten plenty of them over the years, but the Lakers could use a break.
The Miami Heat, meanwhile, should already be considered an interesting sleeper contender in the East next season.
Chris Bosh should return to full health after his scary blood-clot situation. Pat Riley will probably work his magic to re-sign Goran Dragic. And Hassan Whiteside is locked up on what might be the NBA's best bargain contract. Even if Dwyane Wade is only good for 60 regular-season games, the Heat are probably a 50-win team in the East with that core.
Add in Luol Deng, a returning Josh McRoberts and whomever is available at No. 10, and this is a nice post-LeBron-James roster. Riles might even be able to parlay that top-10 selection with Deng and a couple of other pieces for another near-All-Star. The Heat with a lottery pick in their holster are one of the key NBA teams to watch this summer.
Which Lottery Representative Will Win the Night?
Last year, Mallory Edens went from the teenage daughter of an NBA owner to an overnight Internet sensation after representing the Milwaukee Bucks at the lottery. This year, the list of potential candidates goes as follows:
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Glen Taylor | Owner |
| New York Knicks | Steve Mills | General Manager |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Nerlens Noel | Player |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Byron Scott | Coach |
| Orlando Magic | Alex Martins | CEO |
| Sacramento Kings | Vlade Divac | VP, Basketball and Franchise Operations |
| Denver Nuggets | Josh Kroenke | President |
| Detroit Pistons | Jeff Bower | General Manager |
| Charlotte Hornets | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Player |
| Miami Heat | Alonzo Mourning | VP of Player Programs |
| Indiana Pacers | Larry Bird | President of Basketball Operations |
| Utah Jazz | Dennis Lindsey | General Manager |
| Phoenix Suns | Alex Len | Player |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Russell Westbrook | Player |
On paper, there doesn't appear to be much there. Every representative already has a certain fame level; the overnight sensation hopes are a thing of the past. One could argue that it's a boring list—that teams did not do nearly enough to attempt to create an iconic moment that would last in lottery lore.
That said, I'd argue the opposite. We're looking at a group that could give us a number of more subtle moments that make the whole thing worth it. A strictly off-the-top-of-the-head list:
- Russell Westbrook will wear something ridiculous: He has to, right? We've seen Westbrook cultivate a reputation as such a forward-thinking dresser that True Religion tapped him as a creative director. I want to see him wear a bonnet. Or a bow tie. Or a T-shirt depicting only Steven Adams' mustachioed face. Don't care. Just want Westbrook to go full Westbrook here.
- Larry Bird Plus Hot Mic Equals????: Calling Bird a prolific trash talker is like saying Michelangelo was a good painter. There are the all-time greats, and then there are those so good they defy the human language. Bird, even mellowed at age 58, still has some barbs in his holster. If the Pacers wind up shocking the world and moving into the top three, I look forward to Bird forgetting he's on live TV and what comes of it.
- General Manager Sad Face: There are five men on the dais whose job security is generally tied to player operations. The responsibility levels of those men vary—Steve Mills, for instance, serves under Phil Jackson—but their goals do not. With only three teams having their numbers drawn under the current lottery system, that means at least two will be stuck or move back. The look of horror on their faces when that happens will be sad, albeit in an entertaining way.
- Team Owner Sad Face: Like General Manager Sad Face, this only happens if your franchise value can swing by hundreds of millions of dollars based on a lottery draw. So, you know, nothing at stake for those dudes.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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