2015 NBA Free Agency: Predicting the 5 Biggest Busts and Potential Destinations
Some NBA free agents just aren't worth the contracts they'll command.
Consider yourself and your favorite team warned.
Overpaying for talent is an ever-present offseason danger. Certain players hold star-like caches that indicate they're worth more than they are. They put up decent numbers on mediocre-to-bad teams, close the regular season out on a tear or have a reputation befitting that of an actual superstar.
Ergo, they're players teams must think twice about before signing.
From here on, we're working off the assumption that every included name will be targeted as a prominent building block or key contributor on a contender. Predictions for where every player could land will be made after weighing cap situations, roster holes and best possible fits, even if the best possible fits are less than ideal.
These players aren't necessarily bad or incapable of playing better. They're just cautionary examples—free-agency attractions who, because of their stats, play styles and limitations, are most likely to go down as busts if they're viewed and signed as anything more than high-profile role players.
Jeff Green, Memphis Grizzlies, UFA (Player Option)
1 of 5
There's a lot to like about Jeff Green. He's 6'9", quick off the dribble, able to play above the rim and, at 28, still in his physical prime. But joining the Memphis Grizzlies was the ultimate test of his place in the NBA, and the returns aren't good.
Green is something of a positional tweener. He has the build of a small forward but the range of a classic 4. And that's a tough skill set to integrate when the player in question is a secondary scorer.
Tertiary offensive options need to play without the ball. Although most of Green's made baskets came off assists during the regular season, he shot just 32.6 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities, a number that's held steady during Memphis' postseason run (33.3 percent).
Playing with the second unit didn't even help. Despite more freedom to dominate the ball, he still finished the regular season shooting just 43 percent from the floor.
Both the Grizzlies offense and defense were worse with him in the game as well. A player of his perceived caliber, earning $9.2 million, should move the needle in the right direction, not act as a hindrance.
These are the same problems that plagued him with the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, so they're not going away. The surface numbers (15 points and 4.2 rebounds per game this season) are better than the actual package.
Teams will take a flier nonetheless, because of both those surface numbers and a free-agency pool thin on impact players making long-term commitments a full year before the first salary-cap boon. That means Green will command north of $10 million (easy) from a suitor in the market for a stretch forward (the spacing-challenged Toronto Raptors, for instance).
And that, in turn, means Green will be drastically overpaid to play a role for which he isn't fit. Again.
Prediction: Jeff Green ends up with the Toronto Raptors
Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons, RFA
2 of 5
Talented point guards are a must for teams looking to deploy contemporary offensive attacks. And while Reggie Jackson, all of 25, is talented, his offensive tendencies don't fit the mold for modern-day assaults.
Sure, the numbers are good, especially when looking at his time with the Detroit Pistons. Jackson averaged 17.6 points and 9.2 assists per game and addressed his efficiency warts from March on, shooting 45.6 percent overall and 36.4 percent from deep to close out the season.
Still, the Pistons ranked a middling 15th in offensive efficiency between Jackson's first game (Feb. 22) and campaign's end. There's always the chance his attention-grabbing stat lines are the byproduct of playing for a team slogging through mud.
SI.com's Alex Hampl noted as much:
"But there is a sense that Jackson’s individual numbers with Detroit are akin to empty calories. The Pistons were never really going anywhere, and were only on the fringe of contending for the East’s eighth playoff spot. Plus, Jackson’s numbers were likely inflated by his incredible usage rate, which rose to 28.4% in Detroit.
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Coach Stan Van Gundy somehow remains enamored with Jackson, according to MLive.com's Brendan Savage. The man with the mustache values one-in, four-out lineups that call for scores of three-point shooters.
Jackson is not only shooting under 30 percent from long range for his career; he drilled an appalling 26.7 percent of his spot-up treys during the regular season.
Maybe Van Gundy finds a way to make it work by combating Jackson's limited range with a platter of other shooters. But he already has to account for the space-snuffing presence of Andre Drummond and, possibly, Greg Monroe.
Plus, coaches shouldn't have to travel great lengths to work around point guards on the verge of raking in eight figures annually.
Prediction: Reggie Jackson returns to the Detroit Pistons
Enes Kanter, Oklahoma City Thunder, RFA
3 of 5
Enes Kanter is going to get gold-shoelaces-gold-toothbrush-gold-everything paid this summer. This is to say he'll be overpaid.
The numbers Kanter posted while with the Thunder are impressive. He averaged 18.7 points and 11 rebounds on 56.6 percent shooting through 26 appearances. During that time, he appeared happy and engaged, even—pause for effect—passing(!) the ball at times.
But that just means Kanter owes former head coach Scott Brooks a high-five, hug or emphatic chest bump. He's the one who put Kanter in position to succeed by pandering to his crazy-specific offensive repertoire.
Nearly 77 percent of Kanter's shot attempts came inside 10 feet while with the Thunder. Utah Jazz head honcho Quin Snyder tried turning him into a stretch 4, and it didn't work. Kanter is a low-post guy who can only score in the half court, preferably with the ball in his hands.
Offenses aren't built around such players anymore—unless, of course, the player in question is a defensive dynamo. And a defensive dynamo Kanter is not.
Oklahoma City was a defensive disaster with him in the game, allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions, the equivalent of a league-worst prevention unit.
Whatever offensive upside Kanter promises isn't worth the defensive trade-off. He cannot play alongside traditional bigs, doesn't space the floor or protect the rim and, therefore, won't live up to the $10-plus-million-a-year offer sheet he'll sign with a team willing to overpay for offense.
In the event the Milwaukee Bucks' pursuit of Brook Lopez, as first reported by the Racine Journal Times' Gery Woelfel, falls through, they could be a team that shows interest.
Prediction: Kanter lands an offer sheet from the Milwaukee Bucks
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons, UFA
4 of 5
Greg Monroe is almost 25.
His game is going on 97.
Averages of 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game are good. So too is his 49.6 percent shooting. But he's basically a more polished version of Kanter.
Just over 92 percent of Monroe's field-goal attempts came inside 10 feet this season, and his range peaks at 16 feet on a good day. His below-the-rim game hurts his two-way value, too. He grabs enough rebounds but doesn't block a ton of shots and cannot effectively defend fellow towers who shoot threes.
All of which succeeds in making his free agency complicated. Monroe will be seeking a max contract, one he may or may not get, according to USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt and Sam Amick. If he doesn't get it, he's expected to command something close.
After signing his qualifying offer last summer to gain control of his own fate, Monroe is also considered fair game on the open market. In fact, he's considered fair game by his own admission.
"I don't know why people have the notion or the thought that I am just out of here already, like it is one foot out the door," he said, per the Detroit News' Terry Foster. "At the end of the day, I am going to do what any free agent would do. I will listen to everybody and assess it."
Monroe's best bet is to sign with a team that plans on running him at the 5. He posted a player efficiency rating of 26.8 at center during the regular season, according to 82games.com, and is quicker than most other behemoths.
Even so, his archaic offensive style isn't worth a max contract. And the team that signs him will do so knowing it's snaring a complementary piece at best who will be overpaid until the salary cap explodes.
Prediction: Monroe signs a max or near-max deal with the Boston Celtics
Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks, UFA
5 of 5
Rajon Rondo just isn't worth the trouble anymore.
The four-time All-Star (three appearances) began 2014-15 under the personal guise that he was a max-contract star. Less than a year later, we know now what we knew then: He's not.
Present-day basketball has left Rondo behind. His 31.4 percent clip from downtown this past season is a career high, he still cannot score off the catch (34.9 percent), and his 39.7 percent showing at the foul line was the worst of any qualified guard in NBA history.
As Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding previously explained, Rondo is fast becoming a dinosaur at the point guard position:
"Plenty of scouts cite Rondo's mushier-than-ever shooting stroke as a backbreaker for offensive game plans. Even Rondo's passing skill can be hard to accommodate with how much he needs the ball in his hands, insists on calling plays and—as seen in Dallas—tends to pass outside-in as opposed to inside-out.
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Tack on his unceremonious exit from the Dallas Mavericks not even two games into their first-round playoff series, and you're left staring at far too much baggage—a colossal caveat no longer worth overlooking.
Suitors will pursue Rondo anyway, because of course they'll pursue him. He still has All-Star cache, and his creativity off the dribble, when he's in the paint, holds appeal.
That he's 29 and could perhaps be had at a discount after failing to make nice with the Mavericks helps.
That he has the friendship and respect of one Kobe Bryant suggests Los Angeles Lakers fans better make room in their hearts for a star point guard-turned-pricey fossil.
Prediction: Rondo inks a non-max deal with the Los Angeles Lakers
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
