5 Surprise Teams That Will Be Big Players in 2015 NBA Free Agency
A summer of spending is on the horizon, but that doesn't mean the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and fellow big-market contemporaries need to dominate the headlines.
There are plenty of other franchises locked and loaded with dough to spend when July rolls around, and their ability to shake up the open market shouldn't be overlooked.
So for the purposes of this exercise, we'll be putting presumed prime-time players like the Knicks, Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs on the back burner.
In order to whittle the number of qualified teams down, projected cap figures for next season were examined to determine which franchises will have a workable amount of financial flexibility based on their number of impending free agents and the projected cap figures for the 2015-16 season.
According to DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony, next year's cap number is estimated to sit around $67.1 million, while the tax line will reside at approximately $81.6 million.
Keeping those criteria in mind, here's a preview of under-the-radar buyers to watch.
Detroit Pistons
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If the Detroit Pistons want to achieve upward mobility in a volatile Eastern Conference, this summer will be the time to do it.
As things stand, Detroit has just $27.9 million in guaranteed money on its books for next season, thanks in part to the team's choice to use the stretch provision on Josh Smith's four-year, $56 million eyesore of a contract last December. The team will now pay out $5.4 million per season to Smith until the deal clears, but it created an additional $8.1 million in usable cap space for each of the next two campaigns, per Yahoo Sports Adrian Wojnarowski.
Factor in the expiring contracts of Tayshaun Prince and Joel Anthony, and Detroit's looking at another $10 million in space.
The question, then, is how will the Pistons use that flexibility to their advantage?
For starters, the team should focus on bringing back two of its own. Detroit parted with D.J. Augustin, Kyle Singler and two future second-round picks to acquire Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline, so failing to match offers for the restricted free agent at this point would be a head-scratcher.
The Pistons' other big decision will revolve around re-signing Greg Monroe, who spurned convention last summer by signing Detroit's qualifying offer as a way to accelerate his path to unrestricted free agency.
"We want Greg back, we want Reggie back," head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy told reporters in April, according to NBC Sports' Brett Pollakoff. "Again, they all have decisions to make in the whole thing. Our decision process will obviously be what to offer and all of that, but we want those guys back. And then we’ve got to talk about all of our other guys, too."
But even if the Pistons do bring those two cogs back, they should still have a little wiggle room under the cap to round out their rotation.
With a chance to build a foundation for years to come, keep an eye on Detroit's ability to be aggressive and active when the market opens.
Indiana Pacers
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Among this select group, the Indiana Pacers may be the most compelling team to watch operate when free agency comes calling.
And the intrigue all stems from a crucial decision to be made by Roy Hibbert.
As things stand, the two-time All-Star can exercise a player option for next season worth $15.5 million. On the surface, that's a no-brainer.
But context is key—and boy, does it hold serious weight here.
According to the Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner, the Pacers are keen on playing a faster brand of ball next season, which could conceivably cut down on Hibbert's playing time.
"We'll have to see how it all plays out and what the roster ultimately looks like, but there's a possibility that Roy's role will be diminished, if we're trying to play faster and trying to play smaller," head coach Frank Vogel said, per Buckner. "But a lot of stuff is going to happen this summer. We'll see how the roster shapes out coming into next season."
If the Pacers hold true on a promise to change their stylistic identity, it could be beneficial for Hibbert to make a move that preserves his earning power before the cap spikes in 2016.
Should Hibbert take the money and stick with the Pacers for one more season, a reduced role could wind up hurting his value in the summer of 2016. That said, a cap spike to somewhere between $80-90 million could make the monetary difference negligible when all is said and done.
So ultimately, the Pacers' spending power could be tied to Hibbert's desire for happiness. If he's willing to collect a $15.5 million check and play less, the Pacers could be hamstrung.
There's also the matter of David West's $12.6 million player option, but for a guy who will be 35 years old when next season starts, it's hard to imagine him turning that payday down as his career comes to a close.
Milwaukee Bucks
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The Milwaukee Bucks are facing an either/or proposition with free agency right around the corner.
Component No. 1 of that equation is Khris Middleton, the restricted free agent who's due a $2.7 million qualifying offer if the Bucks are going to retain the right to match any offers he receives. And at this point, that's merely a formality.
Middleton proved to be an invaluable talent for the maturing Bucks, evidenced by a net rating of plus-6.9 points per 100 possessions that tied Zaza Pachulia for tops among all Milwaukee players who finished the season with the team. Middleton's individual defensive rating of 96.0 was also a team-best, and his 109 converted triples earned the same designation.
On both ends of the floor, Middleton is imperative to the Bucks' success.
That's why, as Grantland's Zach Lowe explained, the team may have to clear out a max slot to retain the 23-year-old:
"Milwaukee should enter the summer with about $15 million in cap room, though Khris Middleton could start the three-day clock ticking on that room by signing an offer sheet with another team after the stroke of midnight on July 1. Middleton uses the same agency that represents Jason Kidd, and it’s possible he might hang out in free agency so the Bucks can strike. Milwaukee can crack open enough room for a max contract by trading one or two players, and it’s a borderline lock to move someone.
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The other component at play here is Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez.
"If Brooklyn center Brook Lopez opts out of his contract, which is for $16.8 million, one of the teams he may consider, according to some NBA officials, is the Bucks," the Journal Times' Gery Woelfel wrote. "Lopez has a good relationship with Bucks coach Jason Kidd, who coached him in Brooklyn last season."
Making a move for Lopez is contingent upon his decision to leave a massive chunk of change on the table. But if he chooses to do so in search of long-term security, the Bucks wouldn't have the space available to sign both him and Middleton.
Phoenix Suns
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Decisions, decisions.
After the Phoenix Suns entered last season with a stable of guards including Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas, the team turned heel, dealt Dragic and Thomas and brought Brandon Knight aboard.
Now Knight enters the summer ready to hit restricted free agency, assuming the Suns extend a $4.8 million qualifying offer his way. Doing so will allow Phoenix to match all offers for the 23-year-old, who flashed a much-improved shooting stroke before his season was cut short by an ankle injury.
Prior to getting dealt by the Milwaukee Bucks, Knight was shooting a career-best 40.9 percent from three. That mark would have ranked No. 4 overall among point guards, had his numbers not dipped following a rough adjustment period with the Suns.
"I enjoy my time here," Knight said after the season, according to the Arizona Republic's Paul Coro. "I look forward to being here in the future and we'll see what happens this summer but I'm optimistic about returning next summer."
So Knight's the top priority, and he figures to command an average annual salary somewhere around $12 million, if we use the four-year, $48 million deal Kemba Walker received last summer as a point of reference.
With the contracts of Marcus Thornton, Gerald Green and Brandan Wright all coming off the books, Phoenix should have a little more cash to toy with should they sign Knight.
Entering the summer with $41 million of guaranteed money on the books, there figures to be an opportunity for maneuverability. Whether that means re-signing Wright to protect the rim or adding shooters to flank their combo guards, the Suns have their work cut out for them.
Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors just got swept out of the first round by the Washington Wizards and have six players with expiring contracts, so what should we expect this summer?
Well, it's not so cut-and-dried, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe:
"Ujiri will listen to inquiries about every player, but those expecting a fire sale should remember: Ujiri didn't build a pristine trade record by acting desperately—not even when Carmelo and LaLa had him over a barrel.
But a lot of these guys have real value around the league, and some won't be in the T-Dot when training camp opens.
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Heading into an uncertain summer, here's a list of Toronto players who are slated to become unrestricted free agents:
- Amir Johnson
- Landry Fields
- Chuck Hayes
- Lou Williams
- Tyler Hansbrough
- Greg Stiemsma
Clearly, not all of those names are ones Toronto wants to see on its opening day roster next season. Yes, we're talking about you, Landry.
In addition to their status as potential sellers, the Raptors will need to determine how to allocate the remaining money they have under the cap. At present, Toronto's got $49 million guaranteed on its books for next season, leaving nearly $20 million free based on cap projections.
Finding ways to properly allocate that money as a way to precipitate stability will be key. During the regular season, Toronto ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency. And although the offense graded out as the East's most productive (108.1) over the course of 82 games, it flat-lined during the playoffs, mustering 95.4 points per 100 possessions.
All statistics courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
All salary cap figures retrieved from BasketballInsiders.com unless noted otherwise.
