Dante Fowler's Season-Ending Injury Won't Derail Jaguars' Plans in 2015

When No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler Jr. tore his ACL in his first practice as a professional player, it immediately became a devastating human-interest story. We like our athletes with character. Fowler has plenty of it, as he explained to Gus Bradley via Peter King: "Whatever we find out, don’t worry about me, I’m good. I’ll come back stronger."

To see the No. 3 pick felled before he could even sign a contract is a reminder to everyone of the fragility of the human condition. One minute, Fowler was on top of the world. The next, his career and livelihood is facing its biggest challenge yet. 

But it's also not necessarily a death-blow to Jacksonville's 2015 season, which was always going to be more reliant on comebacks by quarterback Blake Bortles and left tackle Luke Joeckel than a potential Fowler emergence as a rookie. 

Here are some reasons the Jags may not miss Fowler quite as much as you'd think. 

1. Jacksonville actually had a great pass rush last season

Jacksonville had, quietly, the second-best adjusted sack rate in the NFL last year. It did this without an elite pass-rusher. 

Rank	Team	ASR
1	Buffalo	8.8%
2	Jacksonville	8.5%
3	Kansas City	8.3%
4	New York Jets	8.2%
5	Baltimore	8.0%

The Jaguars return every player with multiple sacks from last year's roster except Geno Hayes, a coverage off-the-ball linebacker. Sen'Derrick Marks was a force to be reckoned with inside, and though dealing with a torn ACL of his own suffered in Week 17, he should be close to 100 percent as the season begins. 

Add in the fact that they spent heavily on outside linebacker Dan Skuta (five years, $20.5 million, $8 million guaranteed) and defensive lineman Jared Odrick (five years, $42.5 million, $22 million guaranteed), and the front seven should still be able to weather any real regression. Rotating linemen has seemed to really help the Jaguars, and they'll have plenty of depth to do that with in 2015.

2. Ryan Davis slides into the Chris Clemons succession role seamlessly

What if I told you the Jaguars already had a promising young pass-rusher ready to take the reins from 33-year-old Chris Clemons before they drafted Fowler? 

Ryan Davis does not have the pedigree of Fowler. He was undrafted and unheralded coming out of Bethune-Cookman. And that pedigree informs a lot of what we think about Davis: a nice player, but not necessarily a future star.

Then you look at the numbers he was able to put up in a small sample size last season:

Year	2014
Snaps	310
Sacks	6.5
Hurries (PFF)	13
Hurries (FO)	11.5
PFF Pass Rush Grade	+14.8

The Jaguars have made a habit of targeting free agents with low snap counts who performed well when given a chance. Skuta, who was essentially baby-sitting Aldon Smith's outside linebacker spot for the 49ers, is a player just like that. 

But let's not forget that they already have a 26-year-old with a lot of pass-rushing potential on the roster. Fowler had the pedigree, but what Davis showed with his 6.5 sacks in limited playing time was that he has the talent to shine in a bigger role. 

3. Maybe Fowler wasn't necessarily an instant star anyway

SackSEER, Football Outsiders' projection system for edge-rusher sacks, did not take an optimistic long-term view on Fowler. 

Player	College	Projected Sacks Through Year 5	SackSEER Rating
Dante Fowler, Jr.	Florida	21.7	43.3%

And while I've seen people I respect like Sports Illustrated's Doug Farrar and NFL Films' Greg Cosell rave about Fowler, calling him the best defensive player in the draft, they are hardly in the majority. On an upcoming episode of the Three-Cone Drill podcast (which I host), former NFL player and Bleacher Report writer Ryan Riddle called out Fowler as having some clear weaknesses. 

The best way to look at this is that the view on Fowler is mixed, and your perspective on his future depends on what exactly you want to emphasize in a football player. His physicality blends in well with Jacksonville's personality, and I can understand why the team fell for him. Pro Football Focus also graded him as being very productive as far as non-sack pass pressure. 

But Fowler wasn't a lock to be a terrific player right away. Like all draft picks coming into the NFL, he was an unknown quality. His outcome as a pass-rusher was less known than most players even before the injury. Now, who knows what the future holds?

Fowler's career has hit a setback. But this hardly means you've heard the last of him. He's a promising young player who seems to have the right mindset to overcome this injury and develop into a star. 

Likewise, Jacksonville's pass rush hits a setback losing Fowler. But it's not necessarily a mortal wound for its odds of competing in the AFC South. 

Rivers McCown is an NFL Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.