Top 5 Reasons San Francisco 49ers Can Make Playoffs in 2015
The San Francisco 49ers’ weaknesses are more apparent than their strengths.
It doesn’t take an expert to recognize the Niners have issues at cornerback and linebacker. This offseason, the Niners lost four starters at those positions—inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland and cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox. The Niners didn't draft anyone to replace them.
So, yeah, those spots are definite weaknesses.
But what are the Niners’ strengths? They certainly have some. The Niners are a tough, veteran team that went to the NFC Championship just two seasons ago. What about the Niners gives them a chance to make the playoffs next season?
In ascending order, these are their five biggest strengths.
5. Safety Depth
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As good as the 49ers defense was the past couple of seasons, it always seemed one injury to Eric Reid away from falling apart.
Last season, Reid suffered a concussion during the first half of the 49ers’ Week 16 game against the San Diego Chargers. The Niners defense gave up 28 points in the second half without Reid.
And in 2013, Reid suffered a concussion during the first half of the Niners’ Week 2 game against the Seattle Seahawks. The Niners defense gave up 23 points in the second half without Reid.
Reid isn’t the best player on the 49ers defense, but he is essential. Why? Because his backup, Craig Dahl, is no good. Dahl is a special teams player, not a safety.
Next season, the Niners shouldn't have to rely on Dahl to play safety in a pinch. They spent a second-round pick on one of the best safeties in the draft—Jaquiski Tartt. He should be a terrific backup for Reid.
4. Defensive Line Depth
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When the 49ers went to the Super Bowl in 2013, they rarely rotated defensive linemen. As long as Justin Smith and Ray McDonald were healthy, those two played practically every snap.
But McDonald is gone, and Smith might leave, too—he hasn’t decided if he wants to play next season. Without him and McDonald, the Niners don't have any more defensive linemen who deserve to play every snap.
The Niners have platoons. At right defensive tackle, they have Darnell Dockett, who missed last season with a torn ACL, and Tank Carradine, who has played just nine games during his career. They’ll split time.
At nose tackle, the Niners have Ian Williams, who missed seven games last season with a broken leg, and Glenn Dorsey, who missed 16 with a torn biceps. They’re injury-prone. They’ll split time.
At left defensive tackle, the Niners have Quinton Dial and first-round pick Arik Armstead. Dial probably is a stronger run defender than Armstead right now, so Dial might start in the base defense. But Armstead might replace Dial in sub-packages on passing downs. They'll split time.
Those six defensive linemen should keep each other fresh for the playoff push.
3. Outside-Linebacker Depth
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The Niners had zero quality outside linebackers when last season began.
They didn’t have Aldon Smith—the NFL suspended him for the first nine games of the season. Ahmad Brooks was overweight and out of shape. And former third-round pick Corey Lemonier was a dud.
The Niners' outside linebackers recorded just one sack total during the first five games of 2014.
As the season went on, rookie fifth-round pick Aaron Lynch established himself as a legitimate pass-rusher, recording six sacks during the final 10 games of the season. He should receive more playing time next season.
And the Niners recently spent a third-round pick on another edge-rusher—Eli Harold. If he stays healthy, Brooks stays in shape and Smith stays out of trouble, the Niners should have four quality outside linebackers next season.
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2. The Running Game
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Last season, the 49ers’ running game averaged 4.6 yards per carry—fourth-best in the NFL. If right tackle Anthony Davis stays healthy, the Niners running game might be even better next season.
Davis played only seven games in 2014. When he played, the 49ers offense averaged 5.4 yards per carry. When he didn’t play, the Niners offense averaged only 3.9 yards per carry. Davis was THAT important. He was the Eric Reid of the offense.
The 49ers' running game becomes completely left-handed and predictable without Davis. The Niners absolutely need him. He is one of the best run-blocking right tackles in the NFL, and he and Joe Staley make the best run-blocking tackle tandem in the league.
1. The Play-Action Passing Game
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Anthony Davis’ absence not only hurt the 49ers’ running game but also the play-action passing game as well. The two go hand-in-hand.
The play-action pass becomes a weapon only when an offense has a dominant running game. But the Niners’ running game was subpar last season without Davis. So the play-action pass wasn’t a weapon.
Colin Kaepernick plays his best when he can fake the handoff and then throw. In 2013 when Davis played all 16 regular-season games, Kaepernick posted a passer rating of 116.4 on play-action passes, per Pro Football Focus.
But in 2014, Kaepernick’s passer rating on play-action passes was merely 85.2, also according to Pro Football Focus.
That rating should be better next season. Davis should be healthy, and Kaepernick finally has a legitimate deep-threat—Torrey Smith. If the opposing defense overreacts to the play fake, Smith will run right past them, Kaepernick will throw it deep and Smith will catch it. Easy touchdown.
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