3-Step Plan for the Dallas Mavericks to Return to the Playoffs in 2015-16
The Dallas Mavericks have been spoiled with consistent playoff appearances for well over a decade now, but they'll have a lot of work this summer to get back to the postseason next year.
The Dirk Nowitzki era has been a joy to watch. The sharp-shooting 7-footer from Germany has led the Mavs to 14 playoff appearances in the last 15 seasons, only just missing out on the festivities during the 2012-13 campaign.
Dallas safely secured the seventh seed this season, five games ahead of the eighth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans and five games behind the No. 6 San Antonio Spurs. But a lot of things went right for that to become a reality.
Tyson Chandler and Nowitzki, the two key cogs in Dallas' frontcourt, stayed healthy and missed a combined total of 12 games, during most of which they were simply resting. Chandler is vital for the defense, while Dirk elevates the offense to another level. It's uncertain how Dallas would have coped had either of them been injured over a longer period of time.
While the Mavericks were fortunate with their health, other teams were not. The Oklahoma City Thunder, essentially a lock to win over 60 games, missed the postseason due to injuries to key players. Had they been healthy, they would likely have pushed the Mavericks down to eighth, and the teams below that threshold are on their way up.
The Pelicans are bound to get better as Anthony Davis continues to evolve. The Phoenix Suns went through a lot of midseason roster turnover and figure to be back in the race next year. The Utah Jazz played way above expectations and could take a big leap forward with their young core.
Meanwhile, three of the Mavericks' starters and a bunch of key bench cogs are hitting free agency, Chandler Parsons underwent season-ending knee surgery and Nowitzki isn't getting any younger. With so much uncertainty ahead, the Mavericks will have to make the correct decisions this summer in order to stack the odds in their favor.
There are a few key things Dallas has to address if it wants to catch up to the elite teams in the West while keeping the up-and-comers out of the playoff picture.
Step 1: Rim Protection
The Mavericks offense will be just fine, and the big improvement will have to come at the other end. A quick glance across the top 15 defensive teams this season is enough to recognize a common denominator: rim protection.
Almost every above-average defense features a solid, mobile or smart big man who is able to read the offense and rotate in time to help on breakdowns.
Some teams are able to get away without an elite defensive big, but that requires a ton of versatility in other positions. If the back line is a weakness, it's up to the perimeter defense to limit errors and keep drivers out of the lane. Mobile players with long arms who can guard multiple positions and switch pick-and-rolls then become a necessity rather than a luxury.
As currently constructed, the Mavericks need rim protection. Chandler did an excellent job this season. Even though Dallas only ranked 18th in defensive efficiency, according to ESPN Hollinger stats, it could have been a lot worse without him (the Mavs allowed 3.7 points per 100 possessions less with Chandler on the court, per NBA.com).
Chandler remains an elite rim protector, although he is 32 and has been injury-prone throughout his career. Even so, the Mavericks will have to re-sign him unless they can capture a bigger fish in free agency.
There are few players around the league who could match Chandler's role and production. The Los Angeles Clippers' center DeAndre Jordan is one guy who certainly could, and he is reportedly interested in joining the Mavs, according to ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon.
It's unclear whether Jordan actually wants to leave L.A. or if his reported interested in the Mavs is a media stunt to boost his market value. Either way, landing Jordan or keeping Chandler should be a priority.
Step 2: Perimeter Defense
Maintaining rim protection is key, but Dallas won't become an above-average defensive team without addressing the flaws on the perimeter.
The Mavs allowed the fourth-highest three-point percentage in the league this season and ranked third overall in opponent three-point attempts per game. Dallas had problems closing out on shooters, as players often got lost and confused in rotations.
Nowitzki has become a huge defensive liability, which means that everyone around him has to be that much better. Monta Ellis' defense has always been inconsistent, and he was awful on that end in the playoffs. Parsons will also be playing big minutes, and he isn't exactly a defensive stopper, either.
Rajon Rondo will not be returning, while Ellis is a free agent and could depart as well. That puts the pressure on the front office to bring in effective two-way players who can shore up on the perimeter defense while spreading the floor on offense.
Al-Farouq Aminu took a step forward offensively this season and is an elite defender. The Mavs should try to keep him, but he will continue coming off the bench and playing limited minutes until he becomes a better three-point shooter. He is also a combo forward and can't play at the shooting guard position.
Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler would be the perfect fits, but both are restricted free agents this summer and will likely stay put. However, a player like Danny Green, Khris Middleton or DeMarre Carroll can probably be had at a premium price. With the cap set to rise significantly in 2016-17, overpaying for one of those wings wouldn't be a bad idea, and the Mavs should go hard after one of them.
Step 3: Rely More On Parsons
The Mavericks' offense was a joy to watch early in the season, and Parsons' presence was a huge contributing factor. His combined ability to drive, shoot and pass is rare in guys his size, and head coach Rick Carlisle should consider adjusting the offensive load among his stars.
It's been done before. For example, Dirk had one of the lowest usage rates of his career in 2012-13, according to Basketball-Reference.com. His numbers were down across the board, but he shot 41.4 percent from deep, his third-highest figure over the course of a season. He was playing more off the ball, wasn't grinding through as many post-ups and was feasting on open three-point shots created through drive-and-kicks or pick-and-rolls.
As Nowitzki continues to get older, that's the direction Carlisle should head with his offense. Dirk can still score in the post, but it stagnates the collective rhythm of the team. Parsons might not be recognized as a superstar but is more than ready to take over a big chunk of Nowitzki's burden.
Parsons averaged the fifth-most points per play as the pick-and-roll ball-handler in the league this season, despite only getting to run those plays on 18.3 percent of his total possessions, per NBA.com. He is a matchup nightmare and is able to get to the rim and create shots for others. Parsons had the highest usage rate of his career, according to Basketball-Reference, and passed with flying colors.
Plenty of Parsons' pick-and-rolls took place on the wing as a secondary action after a guard had already contorted the defense and kicked the ball out. With opponents in mid-rotation and out of position, Parsons often managed to take advantage of the open space.
That being said, he is capable of being a secondary ball-handler and eating up more possessions on his own. Parsons shouldn't be the guy bringing the ball up on every play, but he certainly deserves more touches. It still feels like the Mavericks have only scratched the surface of how potent a Parsons-Nowitzki pick-and-roll combination could be.
But Parsons can't step into a more significant role if the Mavs have so many mouths to feed. He was forced to step back and watch as Rondo and Ellis took turns dominating possessions this season. Parsons did a good job spacing the floor and driving on kick-out passes but is capable of doing more than that.
For Dallas to reach its offensive peak again, it needs to have guards who can break down a defense but also play off the ball. That's why players like Green and Middleton would be great fits. They are terrific defenders, great shooters and have just enough handles to drive when defenders close out hard.
Parsons is presumably a big part of Dallas' future plans, and the front office has to look for players who could complement his skill set while also leaving him space to blossom.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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