2015 NBA Draft Notebook: Projecting How Top 10 Shakes out After 1st 3 Picks
Most of the post-lottery 2015 NBA draft talk has focused on the top three teams and prospects. But the next handful of picks are just as interesting to analyze.
Let's assume the Minnesota Timberwolves choose between Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and Duke's Jahlil Okafor at No. 1, with the Los Angeles Lakers more likely than not to take whichever big man falls to No. 2.
At No. 3, we'll also assume the Philadelphia 76ers grab Ohio State guard D'Angelo Russell, who offers offensive firepower and backcourt versatility to a lineup in dire need of it.
And then there are the New York Knicks at No. 4, where there won't be an obvious move to make.
No. 4: New York Knicks
For the entire season, the projected 2015 draft field had a big four consisting of Okafor, Towns, Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, a premier high school recruit who chose to spend the year in China instead of college.
And given the Knicks' need for a point guard—as well as the best available talent—Mudiay would seem like the player for New York.
Yet his strengths and weaknesses clash with the principles of president Phil Jackson's triangle offense.
The triangle values passing, shooting, reading situations and minimal dribbling. Mudiay is ball-dominant with a shaky jumper and questionable decision-making. On paper, the match isn't great.
Mudiay is at his best when breaking down defenses—carving them up in the pick-and-roll and drive-and-kick games, as well as in transition. But the triangle may not give him the freedom to play to his strengths as a creator and playmaker.
If the Knicks prioritize adding talent and show a willingness to alter the playbook or just ignore fit, Mudiay will be the pick. But Jackson hasn't built lineups in the past with scoring point guards. And given the small window of opportunity this team has, it wouldn't be overly shocking if Jackson chose to pass on adding an inexperienced floor general.
The next-most likely options for New York are Duke's Justise Winslow and Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein, whether it means reaching at No. 4 or trading back a few spots.
They're both safe bets who fill needs as defensive players with long-term starter potential. The Knicks will likely covet Winslow's motor, athleticism and lockdown ability, as well as his Kawhi Leonard-like offensive upside. Cauley-Stein's defensive versatility, which translates to rim protection, pick-and-roll switches and full-court pressure, would seem like an obvious attribute for New York to target.
The wild card for the Knicks will be Croatia's Mario Hezonja, who might be one of the most NBA-ready prospects in this draft. At 6'8", he's an elite athlete with mismatch size for a 2-guard or wing. And he can stroke it from deep, pass and slash.
Though his minutes have been up and down, he played at a high level in Euroleague against legitimate pros and former draft picks like Rudy Fernandez. Expect the Knicks to come in contact with Hezonja at some point during the process.
No. 5: Orlando Magic
Would the Magic be prepared to take Mudiay if he falls to No. 5? They drafted a point guard last June in Elfrid Payton, who averaged 8.4 assists through March and April.
Mudiay should be considered the best player on the board if he does slip past the Knicks at No. 4. I wouldn't be surprised if general manager Rob Hennigan pulled the trigger, considering he already has young cornerstones at the 2 (Victor Oladipo), 4 (Aaron Gordon) and 5 (Nikola Vucevic). And Hennigan did say he plans to match any offer on Tobias Harris, per Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel. No matter what, Hennigan will likely be selecting a player whose position is already filled.
Bet on Orlando taking Mudiay if he's there at No. 5. However, if the Knicks take him, which, despite questions about fit, seems like a decent possibility, Orlando will probably be choosing between five players:
| Justise Winslow, Duke | SF | 6'6" | 19 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky | C | 7'0" | 21 |
| Mario Hezonja, Croatia | SG/SF | 6'8" | 20 |
| Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia | PF | 7'0" | 20 |
| Stanley Johnson, Arizona | SF | 6'7" | 19 |
Quite frankly, the Magic could go in any direction without setting off any alarms. Each prospect brings something to Orlando's table.
Winslow would fit the mold of previous Hennigan picks such as Payton and Gordon—athletic, raw and defensive-minded. But I'm not sure he's as sharp a shooter as his 41.8 percent three-point stroke suggests. He didn't take too many triples, shot 26.9 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com, and 64.1 percent from the line.
And the Magic could use a knockdown shooter.
That puts Hezonja in play, who made 2.5 threes per 36 minutes (combined between Euroleague and Spanish ACB) at a 38.7 percent clip.
Kristaps Porzingis will likely also get heavy consideration. At 7'0", he projects as a power forward, given his perimeter ball skills, exceptional mobility and promising outside stroke (36.6 percent from three, excellent mechanics). You could even argue Porzingis has more upside than any available prospect.
Don't count out Cauley-Stein, either, given Vucevic's struggles in rim protection. Cauley-Stein's shot-blocking prowess and athleticism would complement Vucevic's below-the-rim, inside-out offense.
But at this stage of the process, Hennigan will likely go with one of the two international studs, who both offer top-three potential and fill needs as shot-makers.
No. 6: Sacramento Kings
The Kings allowed opponents to shoot 63 percent within five feet last year, ranking No. 29 in the NBA, per NBA.com. You'd like to imagine they'll be giving Cauley-Stein a hard look. He's the top defensive player in this draft. And given DeMarcus Cousins' ability to play inside and out, there is no reason why Cauley-Stein couldn't slide alongside him up front.
He's also one of the few players who could probably add something right away.
Porzingis is more of a project, but he could potentially offer terrific long-term value at No. 6 while giving the Kings an upgrade at a position in need. Porzingis' ability to stretch the floor and play above the rim are two things Jason Thompson doesn't offer.
With the Kings' having drafted back-to-back shooting guards and with Rudy Gay locked up until 2018, Cauley-Stein and Porzingis look like much better fits than Winslow, Hezonja and Stanley Johnson.
The wild-card play for Sacramento would be to trade up for a potential franchise point guard. Darren Collison was ruled out for the season in February after hip surgery. And though he was playing well before going down, there's certainly room for the Kings to upgrade at the point.
If Sacramento is interested in Mudiay, its sixth pick plus Ben McLemore or Nik Stauskas may be a reasonable offer for the Knicks' fourth pick.
No. 7: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets can't be picky at No. 7. They shouldn't be worrying about filling a specific hole. Denver needs talent, regardless of what shape or form it comes in.
At No. 7, the team can essentially guarantee itself one of Winslow, Cauley-Stein, Hezonja or Porzingis.
Let's assume the Nuggets shy away from center Cauley-Stein (if he's even there), given the promise big man Jusuf Nurkic flashed last year.
Winslow would certainly make sense for the Nuggets, whose wings (Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Randy Foye) are each entering the final year of their deals. Johnson would also work, though chances are Hezonja and Porzingis are higher on Denver's board.
It's really tough to imagine the Nuggets taking anyone other than one of the previously mentioned prospects.
Although, with Denver looking the part of a team needing a complete reboot, you have to wonder if it would dangle Ty Lawson for a chance to move up. The Knicks would likely show interest—I'm just not sure an offer of the fourth pick (Mudiay?), Jose Calderon and Tim Hardaway Jr. would be enough to interest the Nuggets.
No. 8: Detroit Pistons
Let's assume the Pistons are able to re-sign Reggie Jackson but allow someone else to overpay for Greg Monroe in free agency. Detroit needs weapons at the 2, 3 and 4.
And the good news is the top options for the Pistons all happen to fill a need. Now, it's just a matter of picking the right one.
| Mario Hezonja, Croatia | SG/SF | 6'8" | 20 |
| Justise Winslow, Duke | SF | 6'6" | 19 |
| Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia | PF | 7'0" | 20 |
| Stanley Johnson, Arizona | SF | 6'7" | 19 |
| Devin Booker, Kentucky | SG | 6'6" | 18 |
| Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin | PF/C | 7'1" | 21 |
The Pistons should be pleased with any one of Winslow, Hezonja or Johnson. Porzingis would also fit nicely as an inside-out versatile big man to complement Andre Drummond down low.
If Detroit does anything crazy, odds are it would either be targeting Kentucky's Devin Booker or Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky—two sure things who offer certainty in the form of shooting. To grab one this high would be a reach but not a complete jaw-dropper.
No. 9: Charlotte Hornets
Believe it or not, the Hornets are actually in a real good spot at No. 9. You could argue the top two tiers of talent in this draft consist of nine prospects, guaranteeing Charlotte one of them.
The Hornets shouldn't count on either of the international prospects to be available. And chances are someone will have selected Winslow.
If Porzingis and Hezonja are gone, that should make Johnson available, who offers terrific value this late, where he'd even fill a need in Charlotte.
The Hornets don't get much offense from Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who may be better suited as an energizer off the bench. Johnson averaged 19.4 points per 40 minutes as a freshman for one of the nation's top teams at Arizona. And at 6'7", 241 pounds, he has the physical tools to become a tough two-way wing.
The surprise move the Hornets could make would be drafting Booker, whose shooting stroke should hold plenty of value. This was a team that finished last in the NBA in three-point accuracy.
No. 10: Miami Heat
The Heat have few assets to trade up, so they'll likely sit tight at No. 10 and hope one of the big nine (Okafor, Towns, Russell, Mudiay, Winslow, Cauley-Stein, Porzingis, Hezonja, Johnson) falls.
If not, Miami will still have plenty of quality options to choose from relative to where it's selecting.
| Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin | PF/C | 7'1" | 21 |
| Myles Turner, Texas | C | 6'11" | 19 |
| Devin Booker, Kentucky | SG | 6'6" | 18 |
| Jerian Grant, Notre Dame | PG/SG | 6'5" | 22 |
| Sam Dekker, Wisconsin | SF | 6'9" | 21 |
| Kelly Oubre, Kansas | SF | 6'7" | 19 |
| Trey Lyles, Kentucky | PF | 6'10" | 19 |
| Cameron Payne, Murray State | PG | 6'2" | 20 |
Kaminsky is a safe bet who can complement Hassan Whiteside as a shooter. Texas center Myles Turner is the boom-or-bust option, given his two-way versatility and questionable strength and athleticism.
Booker would give Miami a shot-maker, though his opportunity behind Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng (if the unrestricted free agent opts to return) would be limited.
Kansas wing Kelly Oubre offers plenty of long-term upside—just not much right away. Sam Dekker might be able to contribute off the bench as a rookie, though his ceiling isn't overly high.
Notre Dame's Jerian Grant is an interesting option. He has the facilitating instincts to run the point, as well as the 6'5" size and scoring ability to slide off the ball. If Goran Dragic looks elsewhere in free agency, Grant could be an option. But then so could Murray State's Cameron Payne, a dynamic playmaker and scorer.
This is really one of the stronger top 10s we've seen in recent memory. In fact, every team drafting in the lottery should have a good shot to add a significant asset and plug a hole.
With five more weeks remaining before June 25's big night, look for auditions to pick up and general managers to start tidying up their draft boards.
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