Duke Basketball: Projecting Next Season's Starters

April 2015 will go down as one of the most successful calendar months in Duke basketball history. The month started with Duke taking down Michigan State and Wisconsin in Indianapolis to win the national title, and it finished with resounding success on the recruiting trail.

After securing a commitment from center Antonio Vrankovic, Duke convinced Derryck Thornton to commit and reclassify in order to play next year. The Blue Devils also secured a commitment from in-state 5-star prospect Brandon Ingram.

With the euphoria of winning the championship wearing off and the roster for next season complete, it is time to start focusing on what next year’s team will look like.

The Blue Devils are losing four starters from the national championship team, and the lone returning starter (Matt Jones) is no guarantee to start next season. In fact, Thornton—the lone point guard on the roster—appears to be the only player who is certain to start.

Having a talented group with diverse skill sets will give Coach K the option of playing many different lineups next year that feature various sets of strengths. It will be exciting to see which players are on the floor for the opening tip of the first game.

Point Guard: Derryck Thornton

One glance at Duke’s roster, and anyone could tell you why Thornton is likely to start—he is the only player at his position.

The bigger mystery at this point is figuring out which shooting guards will step up and run the show when Thornton is on the bench. Matt Jones is way closer to being a small forward than a point guard, Grayson Allen has smooth handles but is more of a scorer and who knows whether freshman talent Luke Kennard will be in the rotation at all?

In the past month, Thornton has gone from a guy who was looking forward to his senior season of high school basketball to a guy who will likely be handed the reins to the defending national champions and one of the premier programs in college basketball.

Thornton’s ability (or inability) to thrive as Duke’s maestro may be the single biggest factor in how well the team fares during the 2015–16 season.

Shooting Guard: Grayson Allen

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Allen’s heroic performance against Wisconsin elevated expectations to the point that many are predicting him to be a star next year, but he will actually be in a tight battle for a starting spot.

While everyone remembers Allen’s 16 points in the final game, Duke probably would not have gotten there if it were not for Jones’ 16 points against Gonzaga in the South Regional final. Jones is a great defender and a good spot-up shooter, but Allen is no slouch as a shooter and defender, and he is better off the dribble than Jones.

If Allen plays with the type of aggressiveness he showed against Wisconsin, he has a chance to be a big-time contributor next season. Jones will also see plenty of time on the court whether he starts or not, and the two will most likely play a decent amount of minutes together. They are both able to play multiple positions and have skills that nicely complement each other.

Small Forward: Brandon Ingram

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Ingram, the latest in a recent string of top-five recruits for the Devils, is likely to be pegged as the starting small forward as soon as he steps foot on campus.

Standing 6’9”, Ingram would dwarf most college small forwards. His size will allow him to shoot over shorter defenders with ease, while his length and athleticism make him a potential havoc-wreaking defender on the perimeter.

Duke had so much success this past season using a small lineup with Justise Winslow at power forward that it is conceivable the Devils will roll out a similar look by starting Jones at the 3 and Ingram at the 4. While this look could provide an offensive spark, it probably will not be Duke’s main lineup due to Ingram’s lack of strength.

Winslow’s speed on the perimeter awarded him an advantage when being guarded by power forwards, and his strength and athleticism allowed him to guard opposing 4s with no problem. While Ingram has the height to hang in the paint, he is only 196 pounds and would likely be bullied in the post and during rebounding battles.

Having Ingram at small forward will give Duke a tall and long starting unit that is capable of scoring on the break and creating turnovers with pressure defense. After seeing some rare zone last season, Duke could return to its usual style of jamming passing lanes and shutting teams down with man-to-man defense in 2015–16.

Power Forward: Amile Jefferson

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With Ingram slated to start on the wing, Amile Jefferson should be the starting 4 in his senior season.

Having Jefferson and Ingram play alongside each other will give Duke a pair of players who are both long-armed and defensively versatile. Jefferson proved his worth on defense by shutting down Frank Kaminsky at the end of the championship game after Kaminsky spent the first 30 minutes roasting Jahlil Okafor.

As college programs start to mock the way NBA teams are playing in the “pace and space” era, there will be more power forwards who play on the perimeter, and Jefferson is the perfect player to counteract stretch power forwards.

As a senior and a captain, Jefferson will be looked upon to continue to be the perfect glue guy he has been for the past two seasons. He will continue to fight on defense, and he will grab rebounds and score efficiently when given the opportunity.

Center: Sean Obi

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This is the toughest position to predict, as there will be a three-way battle for the starting center spot.

Marshall Plumlee will be a senior and a captain, and his big body would help deter opponents at the rim. Freshman Chase Jeter is another long player who is the most skilled offensively of the three but needs to add weight in order to bang down low. Sean Obi is only 6’9”, but he will be able to push people around with his 270-pound frame.

Obi was a beast on the glass in his lone season at Rice, leading Conference USA with 9.3 rebounds per game. He will need to work on his rim protection; he averaged less than a block per game at Rice.

If Duke does utilize its length on the perimeter to amp up the pressure defense, it will need an enforcer on the back line when opponents beat the pressure. If Obi can find a way to thwart driving guards, he will be a big-time presence for the Devils in 2015–16.