Caleb Swanigan's Commitment Makes Purdue Viable Big Ten Threat in 2015-16

Caleb Swanigan's recruitment is over. Two weeks after decommitting from Michigan State, the 5-star center and reigning Mr. Basketball of Indiana flipped to in-state Purdue. 

Swanigan was also considering Cal and Kentucky, the other two of his original final four. Purdue was far and away considered the favorite, with Dan Dakich reporting within hours of Swanigan's decommitment that the deal was "done."

Analysis of the machinations behind that decision will likely carry over well into next season. 

From an objective perspective, Swanigan's decision to pick Purdue over Michigan State is curious at best. Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter sends a player to the NBA roughly once every three years.

Three of the four players he's sent to the pros have been second-rounders, and none has been selected higher than 27th (JaJuan Johnson, 2011). Swanigan is the first Indiana Mr. Basketball to commit to Purdue in more than two decades.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Contrast that to Michigan State's Tom Izzo, perhaps the best coach in college basketball. Izzo can make chicken soup out of [radio edit] and doesn't have a half-bad reputation developing NBA talent. Zach Randolph, Morris Peterson, Jason Richardson and Draymond Green are all former Izzo proteges. Just last year Gary Harris and Adreian Payne parlayed their Michigan State run into first-round status. 

By his own account, Swanigan was "100 percent" committed to Michigan State less than a month ago, per Dan Kilbridge of the Lansing State Journal. He had yet to submit his letter of intent, though it was but a mere formality; he'd be in East Lansing in the fall.

About a week later Swanigan's commitment was at 0 percent.

So, what gives? 

It turns out there was far more than meets the eye to Swanigan's commitment. 

"I really can't talk about it, but we're kind of going through a little bit of a thing. Football's been through it," Izzo told The Drive with Jack Ebling a day before Swanigan decommitted, per Matt Charboneau of the Detroit News. "So, nothing I'm worried about; I just can't talk about it."

As noted by Charboneau, Izzo was referring to an incident last year involving football recruit Malik McDowell. McDowell committed to Michigan State but was held up by his mother, who would not sign the letter of intent. Under NCAA bylaws, a parent or guardian must approve the letter of intent for any student-athlete under the age of 21.

And, I know you'll be shocked by this revelation, but one of Swanigan's guardians bleeds black and gold. Roosevelt Barnes has deep ties to the Purdue program after playing football and basketball at the school in the 1980s. Barnes worked as an agent following a short NFL career, so he has experience negotiating the best possible situation for his "clients."

Doug McSchooler/Associated Press

In fact, it was Barnes, not Swanigan, who took to the media Tuesday to elaborate on the decision.

"My plan for him all along was to wait to commit until this point or later—end of May, beginning of June—because he had reclassified," Barnes said, per James Jahnke of the Detroit Free Press. "With that, we needed some extra time to make sure we were making the right choice." 

Are we looking at a situation where Barnes put his foot down, and Swanigan eventually relented? If Izzo's account of things is to be believed, it sure looks that way.

But I'm not in the Swanigan-Barnes home. Neither is Izzo. It would be unfair to read this as anything other than a young man changing his mind until he informs us otherwise. Then it might be proper to head into think-piece land about why in the world NCAA policy actively encourages this type of stage parenting.

Until that happens, Swanigan's decision may be viewed in the long term as the one that swings the Big Ten title picture. 

Paul Vernon/Associated Press

Melo Trimble's decision to return for his sophomore season makes Maryland an obvious early favorite. The Terps also added 5-star center Diamond Stone and Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter while bringing back Jake Layman and a number of others from last year's team.

Michigan State with Swanigan was probably the Terps' biggest competition. Izzo's Final Four outfit is losing Travis Trice and Branden Dawson but is stocked full of players ready to take their place. 

Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello are ready for big minutes as upperclassmen, while Denzel Valentine should compete with Trimble for Big Ten Player of the Year. Add in Swanigan as a low-post presence and Bryn Forbes as a three-point gunner, and Izzo has the makings of a deep run in March.

Instead, it could be Purdue swinging for the fences.

The Boilermakers return four of five starters from last year's team, which went 21-13 (12-6 in Big Ten) before losing to Cincinnati in the round of 64. Six players scored at least seven points per game in a balanced effort, which saw Purdue hang around the middle of the pack on both ends.

What was missing was an offensive fulcrum around whom it could build. Swanigan is just that. He averaged 22.6 points and 13.7 rebounds during his senior season, helping him move up to No. 18 on 247Sports' national rankings. With Swanigan's 6'8" frame a little undersized for a center, 7-footer A.J. Hammons' presence should allow him to shift to power forward, where he'll be even more deadly. 

"Caleb wants to bring a national championship to Purdue," Barnes said, per Kyle Neddenriep of the Indianapolis Star. "He won Mr. Basketball in Indiana and won a state championship. He wants to do the same thing for his college team at Purdue. Matt Painter is a great coach."

The lack of range between Hammons and Swanigan might make spacing a little cramped, but they could fashion themselves as college basketball's Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Swanigan's a post brute able to command double-teams and use his big body to finish through contact. His physicality on the defensive end will make a nice one-two punch with Hammons, who averaged nearly three blocks per game last season.

It would be nice it someone on the roster other than Kendall Stephens learned how to make a three-pointer between now and October. Vince Edwards and Dakota Mathias were both very willing to take them, but the result was usually a sigh and jog back to the other end. If Edwards or Mathias becomes a usable floor-spacer, Purdue could make a run at a high seed.

As it stands, Swanigan's commitment alone is the program's best moment in a half-decade. Whether it came super willingly, at this point, is immaterial. 

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.

Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.