2015 NBA Mock Draft: Full Predictions for 1st-Round Prospects Prior to Lottery
After more than a month of relative calm, the 2015 NBA predraft process is finally ramping up. The draft combine is currently ongoing in Chicago, and we'll soon have the top-14 order when the pingpong balls are drawn on May 19.
In other words, we'll finally get some answers after a long period of uncertainty.
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves or New York Knicks jump-start their rebuild and generate what would certainly be a (tongue-in-cheek) conspiracy theory? Are the Timberwolves destined to have three straight No. 1 picks on their roster? Actually, no. We all know the Cleveland Cavaliers will somehow find a way to win despite not even having a lottery selection.
For now, though, we're still a bit stuck. The combine has answered some (small) questions, but many more remain. So while we still have a chance, let's take a look at how the first round would look if the pre-lottery order stuck.
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Robert Upshaw, C, Washington |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Justin Anderson, SG/SF, Virginia |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky |
Analysis
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky
It's becoming increasingly apparent that any team that lands at No. 1 will wind up with Towns over Jahlil Okafor. While the Duke product was far more productive at the collegiate level, Towns may be the only player in this class with true foundational upside. He has the length and smarts to develop into a truly elite defender and is already skilled enough on the offensive end to make an immediate impact.
To be fair, the risk in selecting Towns is certainly higher. Anyone who says he's a good defender now did not watch nearly enough tape, and his purported jump-shooting skills were more theoretical than put into practice. Towns has a tendency to disappear for stretches, which is understandable for a 19-year-old, but it's a trait not shared by Okafor.
Luckily, a team like the Timberwolves—one with no designs on winning next season—has the room to allow Towns to grow at his own pace. I'm not sure I'd love the fit if he went to New York or the Los Angeles Lakers.
2. New York Knicks: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Believe it or not, this pick isn't nearly as obvious as it seems on paper. The possibility of selecting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay would be tempting here for the Knicks, who desperately need someone other than Carmelo Anthony with the ability to break from their staid triangle offense. What was clear last season is that the triangle does not work—not even a bit—in today's game as a sum-of-parts philosophy.
That said, Okafor's too perfect of a fit to pass up. He's skilled enough as a passer to run triangle actions at the top of the key and polished enough down low to be an instant-impact player. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind about installing him as the Rookie of the Year favorite.
Odds are against him going No. 1 because his ceiling on the defensive end is around average. He just doesn't have Towns' length or athleticism, and last season he appeared uninterested defensively at times. Even so, the Knicks can't pass up someone with his ability to translate instantly.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: D'Angelo Russell, SG, Ohio State
Rumors are already rampant, including from Philly.com's Keith Pompey, that the Sixers want Russell, which makes a ton of sense on every level.
Russell, a left-handed Brandon Roy clone, fits into everything the Sixers want and need in a young prospect. He's an explosive scorer with consistent range beyond the three-point arc, can play the point in a pinch (though I grade him as a 2) and is a solid shot-creator on a team currently lacking that distinction.
Of course, this is all relative. If the Sixers wind up with the top selection, expect them to hold a fire sale among fellow lottery teams or select Towns outright with designs on trading him, Nerlens Noel or Joel Embiid. That's just the way general manager Sam Hinkie operates.
But in this scenario, it's a no-brainer. Russell fits everything the Sixers could want or need in a young prospect.
4. Los Angeles Lakers: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
The Lakers get the point guard they've been longing after for years. Mudiay is perhaps the player most ready to handle the big-city spotlight. He spurned the legendary Larry Brown at SMU to head overseas and make money in China and is led by a team of advisers who seem determined to keep his game under wraps.
A similar tack wound up leaving Dante Exum well within the top five despite limited game tape. Teams have access to Mudiay's limited appearances in China and his high school film, but their best chance to see his current incarnation will be at a private workout.
None of this should deter the Lakers, who would be thrilled to have a guy with Mudiay's potential on the board at No. 4. There are some who viewed him as the best overall player in this class before he decided to skip out on giving things the old college try. The Lakers would run to the podium in this situation.
5. Orlando Magic: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
Winslow's another pretty easy fit even though it's not quite ideal. The Magic already have nonshooters in Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton occupying their backcourt. Winslow is a decent shooter when set, but he needs space to be accurate—something the Orlando offense has rarely had last season.
The Duke product is also at his best offensively when attacking the rim, another trait he shares with Oladipo and Payton. If you want to poke holes in the selection based on fit, you don't have to look hard for places to start.
On the other hand, Winslow's a rabid defender who would give Orlando perhaps the best young perimeter core in the league. Payton, Oladipo and Winslow could each switch any defensive assignment without losing much, and the constant threat of a slash-and-kick isn't the worst way to base an offense.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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