Eastern Conference Is Wide Open in Race to 2015 NBA Finals
With one NBA postseason round gone, the Eastern Conference field sits at four teams, and not one of them can rightly be called the favorite.
For every instance of outward strength, there are countless weaknesses—some obvious, some just waiting for the right matchup to be exposed. Injuries, strategic failures and regular-season track records indicate that each of the remaining teams in the East has issues.
Which one eventually emerges from the conference quagmire is anyone's guess.
The Regular-Season Studs
It took the Atlanta Hawks six games to defeat the aged, uninspiring, no-right-to-be-here Brooklyn Nets in the first round. That in itself raised real questions about the validity of Atlanta's 60-win regular season.
Even the excuses for that underwhelming first-round performance pointed to weaknesses. If, for example, you believe the Hawks struggled against Brooklyn because Paul Millsap (shoulder) and Al Horford (hand) were playing at less than full health, that's a fine explanation.
But it's also a reason to doubt Atlanta going forward.
Toss in the absence of Thabo Sefolosha, a useful wing defender and capable pick-and-roll operator, and the Hawks simply aren't trotting out the same healthy personnel who carried them from November to April.
Through eight games of playoff data, the Hawks have the lowest net rating of the four remaining teams in the East, per NBA.com. They lost Game 1 at home to the Washington Wizards and then recovered to take Game 2 against a Wiz club playing without John Wall (rest assured: more on that later).
Atlanta, gaudy regular-season win total aside, bears none of the markings of a dangerous team, let alone a conference favorite.
"This Hawks team can still reach its potential, can still prove that a 60-win regular season wasn't a fluke," wrote Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated. "But believe this: They will have to do it in a climate where few believe they can."
The Upstarts
Washington started 5-0 in these playoffs with Wall in the lineup but then dropped Game 2 to the Hawks as the point guard sat out with an injured left wrist.
Everything that made the Wizards such a surprising success to this point is tied to Wall. Yes, going small and using Paul Pierce as a power forward enlivened an offense that looked dead during the year, but without Wall's elite speed and vision, those new open looks may never have materialized.
The Wizards need Wall to keep their newfound momentum going, but much of Jorge Castillo's write-up in The Washington Post indicates they can't necessarily count on his presence going forward: "Drew Gooden III described [Wall's Game 2 absence] as 'shocking,' but that was because Wall usually plays through injuries. Teammates knew this one was different."
Wall, whose hand is still too swollen to undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the damage, told Castillo his loose recovery plan between Games 2 and 3: "Try to live in the training room these three days and try to get the swelling to go down and get another opinion to see where things are going."
Take Wall away from an offense that had just found its footing, even for a game or two, and the Hawks may have an edge in the series. Rule him out for the duration, and Washington's cooked.
Washington scored 97.6 points per 100 possessions with Wall on the bench during the regular season, per NBA.com, which would have ranked 28th in the league.
Add the miscellaneous concerns surrounding Bradley Beal's right ankle, Otto Porter's ability to sustain his surprisingly solid play and the fact that Washington won't have home-court advantage in any upcoming round, and you've got a pretty shaky profile.
The King and Company
Losing Kevin Love doesn't deflate the Cleveland Cavaliers in the same way Wall's potential absence does the Wizards. In LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, Cleveland has a solid two-man backup plan.
But just as so many suspected, taking Love out of the Cavaliers' rotation has created troubling lineup problems that the bodies on hand can't solve. Cleveland is playing the concession game now, sacrificing either shooting for size or size for shooting.
Either way, the Cavaliers are giving something up.
James was already trying to do a little too much on his own during the playoffs, as ESPN's Tom Haberstroh noted:
His responsibilities have only grown, while his supporting options have diminished. Besides Love, Iman Shumpert's strained groin is cause for worry. Now, J.R. Smith's return from suspension could be a replacement, not a boost.
James was brilliant in Cleveland's Game 2 win, but teams will only get better at exploiting a diminished Cavs lineup and making life harder for the King.
The Should-Be Favorites
Even if their pre-series title chances of 5-1, according to OddsShark.com, exactly mirrored those of the Cavaliers, it was easy to feel like the Chicago Bulls were the real East favorite.
But how much can we really learn about the Bulls against a Cavs team trying to adjust to Love's absence on the fly, especially after an ugly effort in their Game 2 loss?
And shouldn't we take a long, hard look at the six games the Bulls needed to dispatch the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, especially considering those Bucks had an offense vastly inferior to anything Chicago will see the rest of the way?
We've seen flashes from Derrick Rose, but the trend of his performances dramatically declining when he has less than two days' rest is cause for concern. Joakim Noah and Nikola Mirotic are battling injury, head coach Tom Thibodeau remains at odds with the front office, and a four-time MVP stands in the Bulls' way.
Even if Chicago beats Cleveland, it'll face either the Hawks (against whom it lost two of three during the regular season) or the Wizards (who they battled to a 2-2 split this year) in the next round. Nothing about the Bulls' marks against those teams screams favorite.
The best you can say for the Bulls is that it won't be a shock if they reach the Finals. But it won't stun anyone if they fall to the Cavs or their conference finals opponent, either.
It's Better This Way
It's tempting to view the lack of an obvious East front-runner as a disappointment, but isn't it more fun to look at the bright side?
All four exciting narratives are still in play.
Maybe the Hawks will validate their season, or maybe Wall will make a triumphant return to keep the Wizards' improbable resurgence going.
Perhaps Rose and the Bulls will deliver on their preseason promise. Better yet, it's possible we'll see James channel his most dominant self and carry the Cavs to glory.
We don't have a favorite, but we have endless possibilities.
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