NBA Lottery 2015: Updated Odds for Top Pick in Draft and More
The NBA championship is decided on the court during a grueling two months of playoff basketball. The championship of the offseason, otherwise known as the top pick in the draft, is decided by the random bounce of the pingpong balls in the NBA draft lottery.
For all the tanking speculation that surrounded the league this year, all those losses only lead to better chances in the lottery. It still takes plenty of luck to land the top pick, and even the team with the best odds still only sits at 25 percent.
With that in mind, here is a look at the updated odds for the top pick in the draft, courtesy of ESPN.com’s Chad Ford:
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 25 percent |
| New York Knicks | 19.9 percent |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 15.6 percent |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 11.9 percent |
| Orlando Magic | 8.8 percent |
| Sacramento Kings | 6.3 percent |
| Denver Nuggets | 4.3 percent |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.8 percent |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.7 percent |
| Miami Heat | 1.1 percent |
| Indiana Pacers | 0.8 percent |
| Utah Jazz | 0.7 percent |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.6 percent |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.5 percent |
Potential Candidates for the No. 1 Pick
Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Whichever team lands the draft's top pick must make a choice between an incredible defensive ceiling and a monster on the offensive end who is ready to score 15-20 points a game from the moment he reaches the league.
That offensive player is Duke’s Jahlil Okafor, and he has plenty of momentum on his side after he helped the Blue Devils win the NCAA national championship. The 6’11” and 270-pound big man has the size to bang around down low on the blocks and the agility and athleticism to beat defenders off the dribble or with timely spin moves in the lane.
He is a dominant player with his back to the basket because of his overwhelming strength that allows him to establish deep post position. Given his soft touch around the basket and NBA-ready footwork, Okafor is nearly impossible to stop when he catches the ball that low.
He is also an impressive passer when double-teams come his way and will fit in as a rotational piece in any offense predicated on timely ball movement.
However, there is a bright red flag when it comes to Okafor’s game. He is a defensive liability at this point of his career and often looked lost on that end of the floor in his one season at Duke. He struggled the most against pick-and-rolls and was far too slow to react to plays as they developed.
That must change at the NBA level.
Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
The defensive force that teams could pick with the No. 1 selection is Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns.
Towns checks in at 7’0”, and his athleticism jumps out on film. Despite his size, Towns runs the floor like a guard and is versatile enough to play power forward or center. That size will help him defend lumbering centers, while the agility will help him against stretch forwards.
Positional versatility is necessary in today’s NBA that is so predicated on spacing the floor and hitting three-pointers from almost every position. Towns also has the athleticism to cover the entire baseline as an elite shot-blocker, and his explosive leaping ability and nose for the basketball will translate to the next level.
His ceiling as a defender is absolutely the NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Don’t sell Towns short on the offensive side, though. He scored enough on the low block with soft touch to establish himself as a threat there (especially in the NCAA tournament), and his shooting range extends to the three-point line.
Teams will draft Towns for his defense, but the offense will help him contribute at an All-NBA level once he reaches his prime.
If Towns has his way, he will be a member of the New York Knicks, thanks partially to the presence of team president Phil Jackson, per Marc Berman of the New York Post:
"It’s his presence. What he means to me, his presence is just amazing. What was so awesome as a coach, he made every player better and put them in the best position to succeed. He’s just so smart and intelligent and has so much experience. He knows how to win. At the end of the day, what every player wants to do is win. If I have the opportunity to ever play for the Knicks, that’s what I would love to do.
"
Knicks fans could certainly get used to that.
D’Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
The freshman train rolls on with the silky-smooth combo guard from Ohio State.
D’Angelo Russell isn't necessarily an elite athlete, but his overall feel for the game with the ball in his hands as either a point guard or a shooting guard is why he stands out. He dazzles fans and scouts with his passing ability, but he also hit 41 percent of his three-pointers during his one season as a Buckeye.
That shooting and passing combination makes Russell lethal in pick-and-roll situations. He boasts the ball-handling skills necessary to attack the basket in the lane, the shooting touch to make defenders pay for lagging off him and the passing skills to keep his teammates happy.
Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress painted an enticing picture of Russell as a prospect:
"His passing ability is arguably his best attribute at the moment, as he sees the floor wonderfully at 6-5 and shows incredible creativity and skill for a player his age, constantly probing the defense and whipping balls all over the floor with utmost confidence.
He's extremely unselfish, not afraid to throw the ball ahead in transition to ignite the offense, even if he won't get credited with an assist. He often sees plays developing before they actually materialize in the half-court, and will move the ball calmly and quickly in the flow of the offense, getting his team an easy quick-hitting basket before the defense can react.
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The big men have received most of the attention as potential No. 1 picks, but Russell could earn the designation if a team like the Philadelphia 76ers or Los Angeles Lakers (who already have bigs Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Julius Randle on their respective rosters) wins the lottery.
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