NBA Draft 2015: 1st-Round Mock Draft Predictions for Top College Prospects

There's a dividing line in any NBA draft where it's easy to point out where the potential superstars end and the role players start to take over. The class of 2015 certainly has a pair of players at the top with superstar potential, but even their questions could drop them into the role-player category. 

Jahlil Okafor is a tremendous offensive talent in the paint, but he did disappear at times in his freshman year at Duke, including scoring less than 10 points in two NCAA tournament games. Karl-Anthony Towns is coming into the draft out of Kentucky loaded with potential but averaged an OK 10.3 points per game. 

Yet even with those players' limitations, an optimist can point out they played most of last season at 19 years old. A teenager shouldn't come into the NBA as a finished product. If that happens, chances are good he is one of the best prospects in history or wasn't very good to begin with. 

Even with questions about ceiling and floor for players like Okafor and Towns, this is a strong draft class that should churn out many players who can carve out long, successful NBA careers. 

This new post-lottery mock draft shows how things could play out on June 25, followed by predictions for key players in this class. 

Pos.	Team	Player
1	Minnesota Timberwolves	Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
2	Los Angeles Lakers	Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
3	Philadelphia 76ers	D'Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State
4	New York Knicks	Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
5	Orlando Magic	Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
6	Sacramento Kings	Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
7	Denver Nuggets	Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
8	Detroit Pistons	Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia
9	Charlotte Hornets	Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
10	Miami Heat	Myles Turner, PF, Texas
11	Indiana Pacers	Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
12	Utah Jazz	Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas
13	Phoenix Suns	Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
14	Oklahoma City Thunder	Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
15	Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets)	Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
16	Boston Celtics	Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
17	Milwaukee Bucks	Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
18	Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans)	Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame
19	Washington Wizards	Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
20	Toronto Raptors	Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
21	Dallas Mavericks	Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
22	Chicago Bulls	Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville
23	Portland Trail Blazers	Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
24	Cleveland Cavaliers	R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
25	Memphis Grizzlies	Rondae-Hollis Jefferson, SF, Arizona
26	San Antonio Spurs	Jarell Martin, PF, LSU
27	Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets)	Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia
28	Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers)	Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
29	Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks)	Delon Wright, PG, Utah
30	Golden State Warriors	Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

Best Rookie: D'Angelo Russell, PG

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

In a game where being quick and athletic has become the key to success, D'Angelo Russell immediately stands out among this year's rookie crop. The Ohio State star had a miserable end to his freshman year, shooting 3-of-19 with nine points against Arizona. 

As bad as Russell's shooting against the Wildcats was, the game also showcased his ability to do more than score. He had seven rebounds and six assists with just one turnover in a game where his team was clearly overmatched. 

Projecting Russell's immediate impact into the NBA, he has all the tools to win a Rookie of the Year trophy for a Philadelphia franchise that is desperate for star players.

Russell has developed faster than anyone expected, even Buckeyes head coach Thad Matta. Here's what the Ohio State coach told Ari Wasserman of the Northeast Ohio Media Group about when he knew Russell would turn pro.

"It was probably our preseason scrimmage at West Virginia when he scored 33 and hit the game-winner," Matta said. "I kind of scratched my head and said, 'Uh oh, this kid.' He was doing things we hadn't even talked about yet in terms of drill work." 

In February, Fran Fraschilla of ESPN declared Russell the "most skilled player" in this year's draft class:

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At 6-foot-5 and armed with a 6-9 wingspan, Russell has a unique ability to control a college basketball game with his scoring, passing, basketball intelligence and leadership. But most impressive is that he already possesses the poise and countenance of a 10-year NBA veteran.

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Fraschilla did note Russell isn't a perfect prospect because he lacks elite athleticism, and his lack of high-end top speed will likely hurt him on defense against quicker guards. 

Even with that limitation, which isn't meant to be glossed over, Russell consistently displayed the ability to create his own shot and lead his teammates into a good shooting position with his passing skills.

Transitioning into the NBA, which has become more guard-friendly in recent years, Russell should have little problem making an immediate impact because of his well-rounded offensive game. There will be some initial struggles on defense but nothing so egregious that he can't overcome. 

Best Long-Term Prospect: Karl-Anthony Towns, C

The gap between what Karl-Anthony Towns is and what he can become is huge, though not because he lacks for immediate-impact skills. It just speaks to how high the former Kentucky standout can climb with the proper development. 

It's become more apparent throughout the draft process that Towns is going to be the No. 1 pick. ESPN's Chad Ford wrote in one of his recent big board rankings that Towns has only strengthened his grip on that top spot:

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Towns continues to tighten his grip on the No. 1 pick since we last covered him. In an informal poll of NBA scouts and GMs from 28 of the 30 teams in the league, the large majority of them had him No. 1 on their boards. While it doesn't rule out Okafor or Russell or Mudiay going No. 1, Towns probably is going to have to struggle in workouts, have an undisclosed injury that shows up in the medical testing at the combine or have some off-the-court issue to lose his grip. 

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Minnesota, which secured the first pick in the lottery, is reportedly torn about whether to pick Towns or Okafor, per Ford:

That may be a legitimate "problem" for the Timberwolves right now, though it reeks of a team posturing to see if someone is willing to make a big offer to trade up for one of the top two players. 

Towns is an athletic freak at 6'11" and 250 pounds with length and athleticism to back it up. He's everything a scout could look for in an impact NBA player, yet the 19-year-old is still figuring out how to translate all of that into performance. 

For instance, despite being so physically gifted, Towns disappeared in games. He scored a total of nine points in consecutive NCAA tournament games against Cincinnati and West Virginia. Even though Kentucky didn't need his presence against the Mountaineers, seeing the potential No. 1 pick held without a field goal in a marquee game is a demerit. 

Yet NBA personnel can't help but salivate over Towns. One even told NBA.com's David Aldridge the SEC Freshman of the Year is "safe" as the first or second pick. 

Having a high ceiling and being considered safe make up the ideal combination for a top pick. Towns has a lot of work ahead of him, but the sky is the limit for the young Wildcat as he prepares to start his professional career. 

Underrated Draftee: Willie Cauley-Stein, C

How does a player whom experts project to be taken sixth overall fall into the underrated category? In the case of Willie Cauley-Stein, it's because his game is predicated on defense. 

Being a high draft pick usually requires more offensive polish than defensive acumen. Being able to lock down on defense isn't something that will instantly sell fans on excitement and thrills. 

ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton wrote that Cauley-Stein's numbers in college point to future success on defense as an NBA player:

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Cauley-Stein's statistics suggest he's going to be an outstanding NBA defender. He joins five predecessors in my college database (including fellow Wildcats Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel) who projected to have a steal rate better than 1.5 percent and a block rate better than 4.0 percent. The one concern about Cauley-Stein at the defensive end is his rebounding. The only 7-footer in my database with a lower projected defensive rebound rate was Cody Zeller.

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Pelton also wrote that Cauley-Stein's best role on offense will be as a "low-usage, high-efficiency role player." Finding a true starting center in the NBA is among the most difficult tasks for general managers. There's a reason why Towns and Okafor feel like the only two options at No. 1, despite talented point guards like Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay available. 

Only seven centers averaged more than 15 points per game last season, the fewest of any position in the NBA, per ESPN.com. 

Phil Sandlin/Associated Press

Even if Cauley-Stein ends up being a player who gets limited touches on offense and averages around nine points per game with elite defense, he would still be a franchise building block.

DeAndre Jordan is going to get a lot of money from some team this summer because he can rebound and defend as well as any big man in the league. He can't hit a free throw to save his life, but it's a limitation teams are willing to live with because his other skills are so impactful. 

Cauley-Stein has developed certain aspects to his offensive game that will help him become a more effective scorer. The 7-footer went from being a 37.2 percent free-throw shooter as a freshman to 61.7 as a junior, according to ESPN.com. It's not a great percentage, but it's good enough to get by. 

There are big knocks about him when it comes to effort and passion. In his big board, Ford quotes one general manager as saying he wants "to believe, after everything I've seen this season" the former Kentucky star is passionate about the game and said his team would "employ all the resources" to get the answer. 

As long as Cauley-Stein wants to be great, there's nothing about him physically to suggest he can't get there. That's not enough to put him in the elite category of prospects coming into the draft, but even as a second-tier selection, Cauley-Stein can grow into that top level.