NBA Draft 2015: 1st-Round Mock Draft and Safest Prospects Available

For NBA teams, one of the tricky things when making a selection—namely a lottery selection—is deciding between the safer player and the guy with more upside but a less polished game coming out of college.

The polished players generally hit the league with a defined skill set and understand the role they'll likely play at the next level. They have less of an adjustment period and contribute right away. But they may not have the potential to grow into like the high-upside player, whose risk is often mitigated by his potential to become a superstar.

But that's a fun game for NBA front offices to play. Below, I'll be more concerned with breaking down a full mock draft, along with picking out the three safest players as I see them in this draft. Whether a team picks them or a player with a higher ceiling is ultimately for it to decide.  

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Minnesota Timberwolves	Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Kentucky
2	New York Knicks	Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
3	Philadelphia 76ers	Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
4	Los Angeles Lakers	D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
5	Orlando Magic	Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke
6	Sacramento Kings	Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
7	Denver Nuggets	Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia
8	Detroit Pistons	Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
9	Charlotte Hornets	Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
10	Miami Heat	Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
11	Indiana Pacers*	Myles Turner, PF, Texas
12	Utah Jazz*	Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
13	Phoenix Suns	Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
14	Oklahoma City Thunder	Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas
End of Lottery
15	Atlanta Hawks (via Nets)	Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
16	Boston Celtics	Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
17	Milwaukee Bucks	Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
18	Houston Rockets (via Pelicans)	Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame
19	Washington Wizards	Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
20	Toronto Raptors	Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
21	Dallas Mavericks*	R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
22	Chicago Bulls*	Delon Wright, PG, Utah
23	Portland Trail Blazers	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF/SG, Arizona
24	Cleveland Cavaliers	Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia
25	San Antonio Spurs*	Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
26	Memphis Grizzlies*	Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas
27	Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)*	Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky
28	Boston Celtics (via Clippers)*	Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
29	Brooklyn Nets (via Hawks)	Jarell Martin, PF, LSU
30	Golden State Warriors	Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse

Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Big men with a post-up game as developed and sophisticated as the one Jahlil Okafor boasts don't hit the NBA very often. No, he isn't without his weaknesses—his defense needs work, and he'll likely never give you much in transition—but a player whose floor is probably 18 points and seven rebounds a night is worth his weight in gold. 

Okafor averaged 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game at Duke, and he did that with opposing teams making him the focal point of their defensive plan. He comes into the NBA with a polished set of scoring moves, and the fact that he still has a big ceiling to grow into is a scary thought. 

Yes, Karl-Anthony Towns probably has more upside and might end up being the more complete player in the NBA, but what you saw in college is what you're going to get in the NBA with Okafor—the ability to score at will near the basket and perhaps stretch his shot closer to the three-point line to make him even more difficult to defend. 

He isn't going to be Anthony Davis, no, but he may just be the next best thing. And any team in the NBA would be happy to take the next best thing. 

Justise Winslow, SF, Duke 

Often, we call a player safe because we suspect the things that made him great will translate to the next level. For Winslow, that is precisely the case. 

If a team is drafting him to be a top scorer and face of the franchise, it is drafting him for the wrong reasons. If it's drafting him to be a complete player who will instantly make it better in every facet of the game and will be an excellent second or third scoring option, well, it's going to be very happy. 

Winslow is an athletic freak who plays excellent defense, is selfish, is very difficult to keep from the basket when he drives to the cup and has room to grow his jump shot. He'll rebound, he'll find the open teammate and he'll do the little things to help a team win. 

Against Michigan State in the Final Four, he went for 19 points, nine rebounds and two steals. Against Wisconsin, he notched 11 points, nine rebounds and three blocks. His master class came against San Diego State earlier in the tournament, however, when his 13 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, four steals and three blocks may have quietly been the most impressive performance any player offered during March Madness. 

And he obviously has a ton of room to grow. He won't be the sexiest pick for the team that selects him, but boy, could he be one heck of an NBA player and absolutely one who does the little things it takes to win championships. 

Just like Duke did this season. 

Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky

I see shades of Joakim Noah in Willie Cauley-Stein's game, and I believe he will be an incredibly effective player at the next level given his ability to defend almost every position, rebound like a maniac, block shots and affect a game down on the block without ever being a major scoring threat. 

And he's probably more athletic than Noah, too, though he likely isn't as good of a distributor. 

Still, one thing you have to love about Cauley-Stein is that he won't hit the NBA without any misconceptions about his strengths and weaknesses. At Kentucky, like all of his teammates, he had to push aside his ego and play a much more limited role than he would have played on less talented teams. If nothing else, you know he'll hit the NBA perfectly comfortable playing the role given to him and playing it well. 

For a team that needs to bulk up on the boards and improve defensively, few players are a better option than Cauley-Stein.