NBA Draft Combine 2015: 7 Prospects with the Most Volatile Stock
The 2015 NBA combine in Chicago May 13-17 showcases a slew of draft hopefuls, and several have wide-ranging draft value that could swing drastically between now and June 25. They have unproven skills, unclear roles or specific hurdles to jump during the predraft process.
Our list of most volatile stocks includes candidates with the largest span of possible landing spots. Their draft worth isn't well-established, so many of them fluctuate between 15 and 30 spots on mock drafts and big boards.
This group of unpredictable prospects includes several hyperathletic forwards, a dominant rim protector and a speedy guard.
What are the biggest questions and concerns for each one moving forward?
Prospects listed in order of highest potential landing spot.
Chris Walker, Florida PF (6'9", Sophomore)
1 of 7
Draft range: 40-Undrafted
Combine participation: Medical, physical and athletic testing; five-on-five scrimmages
What makes his stock volatile: Limited offensive skills and basketball IQ
Chris Walker is blessed with outstanding physical tools for basketball but not the instincts or feel for the game. His rim-rocking athleticism didn't help much at Florida, and it may not be enough to earn him a spot in the NBA.
A limited offensive repertoire and inadequate positional mastery translated to 14.6 minutes and 4.7 points per game in 2014-15. Even though he runs like a deer and scrapes the roof with his leaping, it didn't matter because he couldn't execute the Gators' game plan.
"He always seems to be a step slow in his reactions to what's happening around him," wrote Sam Vecenie of CBSSports.com. "Plus, his skill level is generally low right now, as he doesn't have any sort of solid ball-handling ability or jump shot to speak of."
Thanks to a colossally underwhelming career in Gainesville, his draft goal is to simply get picked.
Fortunately, he looked great in a recent workout at IMG Academy, displaying increased fluidity and mid-range shooting confidence. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express was there and "was very impressed." Givony noted that it's "too early to close the book" on Walker.
One workout in an empty gym won't dictate his future, but several more at the combine and private team workouts could dramatically enhance his appeal.
J.P. Tokoto, North Carolina SG (6'6", Junior)
2 of 7
Draft range: 30-50
Combine participation: Medical, physical and athletic testing; five-on-five scrimmages
What makes his stock volatile: Athleticism not complemented by reliable scoring touch
North Carolina high-riser J.P. Tokoto checks off several key boxes as an NBA prospect. He brings pogo-stick athleticism, passing skills, rangy defense and great size for the shooting guard position.
But he's not as convincing in the shot-creating and shot-making departments, though. Tokoto was never a serious threat to score the rock during his three seasons at Chapel Hill, and he notched a career-low 11.4 points per 40 minutes this past season.
Although he's been working on his shot during predraft workouts, his form and delivery are still unnatural and rigid. His ball-handling and footwork aren't well-polished either, and his scoring touch is unreliable.
Tokoto is a decent three-point shooter with his feet set, but his pull-up skills and mid-range game are spotty at best. He connected on just 32 percent of his two-point jumpers in 2014-15, according to Hoop-Math.com.
Not all NBA 2-guards are prolific shooters, but it's difficult to earn substantial minutes if you can't fill up the hoop consistently. Throughout individual and group workouts for teams, he must show significant improvement as a scorer.
Terry Rozier, Louisville PG/SG (6'1", Sophomore)
3 of 7
Draft range: 25-45
Combine participation: Medical, physical and athletic testing; five-on-five scrimmages
What makes his stock volatile: NBA role and playmaking production are unclear
Is Terry Rozier a point guard? A combo guard? An unfortunate tweener?
This uncertainty is what makes his draft stock so volatile. The Louisville slasher isn't a true floor general, yet he possesses electrifying two-way speed and slashing prowess.
His score-first playing style suggests he might be more of a 2-guard, but an inefficient perimeter game and short stature will prevent him from filling that slot. Rozier shot just 31 percent from beyond the arc during his sophomore campaign, and many of his mid-range jumpers were low-percentage pull-ups.
Can he create cleanly and distribute the ball steadily as a playmaker? ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton isn't buying it.
"The question marks about Rozier's ability to score efficiently would be one thing if he were driving and dishing, but that's not really the case," Pelton wrote. "He averaged just 3.4 assists per 40 minutes while splitting ball-handling responsibilities with Chris Jones before Jones' dismissal from the team."
If springtime scrimmages reveal upgraded quarterbacking and an improved feel for pick-and-rolls, his chances of landing in the first round will escalate. For now, general managers have to weigh his end-to-end athleticism against an unclear offensive role.
Cliff Alexander, Kansas PF (6'9", Freshman)
4 of 7
Draft range: 25-40
Combine participation: Medical, physical and athletic testing
What makes his stock volatile: May lack versatility and polish to play power forward
A dominant high school career vaulted Cliff Alexander onto the one-and-done NBA radar before he even entered college. Last autumn, he was viewed as one of the premier freshmen in the country.
He left Kansas after one year but in a much different fashion than we anticipated.
Alexander's undeveloped skill set and mediocre feel for the game limited his role on the 2014-15 Jayhawks, and an NCAA investigation into his eligibility sidelined him for the final eight games of the season. Despite his damaged draft stock, he jumped into the 2015 draft fray.
His strong frame and long arms bode well for rebounding (he hauled in 12.5 boards per 40 minutes against KenPom top-50 teams), but sparse scoring skills cloud his future. It's unclear whether he'll fit as a 4 in the NBA, as Chris Stone of Upside & Motor explains: "...His size makes him more suited to play power forward in the NBA, but his current skill set fits the mold of an undersized center. Offensively, Alexander is limited. He lacks a mid-range game that would allow him to play power forward and space the floor in the modern NBA game."
He didn't show much command at all against collegiate opponents, notching just 13.6 points per 40 minutes against KenPom top-50 foes. Nevertheless, he could secure a first-round selection based on power, athleticism and potential.
Chris McCullough, Syracuse PF (6'10", Freshman)
5 of 7
Draft range: 25-40
Combine participation: Medical, physical and athletic testing
What makes stock volatile: Skills are undeveloped; difficult to gauge how much they'll expand
Chris McCullough has all the ranginess and explosiveness an NBA suitor could want from a power forward prospect. He also shows some fluidity as a scorer and defender.
But like many young specimens on this list, most of his game is unproven; as such, it's difficult to project how skillful and productive he'll be two or three years from now. Scouts and analysts love his rim protection and open-floor talent, yet his offensive impact at Syracuse was underwhelming. He scored just 9.3 points per game during 2014-15.
NBADraft.net scout Michael Visenberg broke down some of the deficiencies surrounding his NBA outlook:
"While he has added weight, his body still has a ways to go. (McCullough) will play a bit high at times, which makes it difficult for him to fight for position on both ends in the post...Not much an option with his back-to-the-basket at this point in time, needs to work on establishing some moves and counters near the basket…Still needs to work on his ball skills, handling and possibly having a higher release point on his jump shot.
"
McCullough's midseason ACL injury adds to the volatility of his stock. While an ACL recovery isn't the worst thing in the world, it's still enough to make executives wary. Big men with knee injuries are often unreliable.
As one of the biggest risk/reward commodities in this year's crop, the enigmatic forward's value is tough to pinpoint.
Robert Upshaw, C (7'0", 1994)
6 of 7
Draft range: 20-35
Combine participation: Medical, physical testing
What makes stock volatile: Talented but dismissed from two schools
Bleacher Report NBA draft guru Jonathan Wasserman summed up Robert Upshaw's NBA draft stock entering the combine and predraft stretch: "The size of (his) first NBA contract will likely be determined by interviews."
After he was dismissed from both Fresno State and Washington during his collegiate career, suitors will pepper him with questions throughout the combine and in ensuing weeks. ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman reported in January that Upshaw "failed multiple drug tests while at both schools."
There aren't any major question marks on the court. His colossal 7'0" frame, shot-blocking skills and opportunistic offense make him an alluring prospect who could eventually see big minutes. Upshaw registered 17.6 points, 13.1 rebounds and a staggering 7.2 blocks per 40 minutes for Washington.
Jonathan Givony of Draft Express reported Tuesday that Upshaw won't compete in the five-on-five scrimmaging because he's coming off an injury. Consequently, most of his work at the combine will come during the interviews.
He needs to assure teams he's reliable between the ears and will give them a strong return on their investment. If he can do that, his stock could rise to the mid-first round or low 20s.
Kevon Looney, UCLA PF (6'9", Freshman)
7 of 7
Draft range: 10-25
Combine participation: Medical, physical and athletic testing
What makes stock volatile: Promising yet raw on both ends of the floor
Those who love Kevon Looney's outside shooting, rebounding talent and slashing potential view him as a lottery pick or even a top-10 prospect. Others see a so-so athlete without polish, and therefore they tab him as a risk who's only worthwhile late in the first round.
UCLA's one-and-done forward isn't slated to join the scrimmages at the NBA combine, so there's not much he can do to buoy his stock this week.
In his future workouts and team evaluations, however, scouts and executives will be looking for ball-handling progress, mid-range shooting and foot speed.
He hauled in a truckload of rebounds and sank a healthy share of three-pointers as a freshman. But a peek at his shot chart (via ShotAnalytics.com) illustrates that he's a shaky in-between shooter and a relatively uninspiring finisher at the rim.
Looney's appeal as a prospect is about the long term. He could become a forward who snares boards, goes coast-to-coast and creates opportunities for everyone. His ceiling is roughly 15-plus points and eight to 10 rebounds per contest.
The young Bruin's goal leading up to draft night is to persuade decision-makers that he'll reach those numbers.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are gathered from Sports-Reference.com. Combine participation information courtesy of ESPN.com's Chad Ford (physical testing and scrimmages).
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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