NBA Draft 2015: Rookie Projections for Likely Lottery Picks

We find out every year how tough it is for NBA rookies to make an impact. Even many of the top players selected need a season to figure things out. 

However, a few always catch on quickly. We could be looking at a handful of prospects from the 2015 draft class who have something to offer next year.

Though team fit remains a factor, I predicted each future rookie's level of production, as well as his role in the offense and rotation. 

The following 10 prospects are all good bets to find the lottery. We have four of them making first team All-Rookie, including our pick for 2016 Rookie of the Year. 

Predictions were based on each prospect's college or international stats, his current strengths and weaknesses and how we project them to translate in the pros. 

Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Honors: First Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .485
• Points: 13.1
• Rebounds: 8.5
• Blocks: 1.5
• Free-Throw Percentage: .750

In Year 1, Karl-Anthony Towns should make up for a lack of offensive polish with athleticism and physical tools. He has the body and mobility to get up and down floor and pick up easy buckets off finishes and offensive rebounds. 

He also showed gradual improvement this past season with regard to his low-post game, particularly his over-the-shoulder hooks and drop steps. I wouldn't bet on Towns' coach featuring him in the offense, but he's talented and skilled enough to capitalize opportunistically around the key. 

Considering he shot 81.3 percent from the line, we may even see Towns receive reps as a pick-and-pop or stretch-big option.

He'll likely have some trouble defensively to start, given the fact he averaged 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes in college. Towns will pick up his fair share of blocks—he swatted 4.3 shots per 40 minutes at Kentucky—but it's going to take him at least a season to figure out how the game is called.

Regardless, between Towns' developing offense and interior presence, he'll have the chance to inject a frontcourt with some life as a rookie.

ESPN's Fran Fraschilla broke down why he expects a quick start from Towns:

"

The 19-year-old freshman with a 7-foot-3 wingspan may not be as advanced as [Anthony] Davis, who was the consensus national player of the year. But he is the basketball equivalent of a five-tool player, with a nice combination of skill, size, athleticism, youth and a "give-a-damn meter" that runs high. These are all reasons why his NBA success should come early in his pro career.

"

Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Projected Honors: First Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .500
• Points: 13.9
• Rebounds: 6.8
• Blocks: 0.6
• Free-Throw Percentage: .590

At 6'11", 270 pounds, Jahlil Okafor has a body built for NBA contact. And he has the skills and IQ to go with it. 

He should immediately provide a lineup with an option to feed in the post, where his footwork, touch and moves are exceptionally polished. He's shown the ability to consistently create his own shot against a set defense. 

However, Okafor won't be matched up against 6'9" and 6'10" centers like he was in the ACC. He didn't start seeing NBA-sized defenders until the NCAA tournament. And quite frankly, he wasn't able to bully them around like he did to most big men throughout the year. 

In the NCAA tournament, he scored just six points against Utah 7-footer Jakob Poeltl, a projected 2016 lottery pick. And Okafor finished with just nine points against Gonzaga's monster front line. He also had trouble against Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky in the championship game. 

And don't count on Okafor providing too much rim protection as a rookie. He wasn't the sharpest defensively at Duke, where he struggled to block (4.5 percent block percentage, per Sports-Reference.com) and consistently challenge shots. 

Still, he'll score his fair share of points next year off back-to-the-basket touches and finishing opportunities down low. But expect a lack of explosiveness, shooting touch (51 percent from the line in college) and defensive instincts to weigh on his immediate outlook.

D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, 6'5", PG/SG, Freshman

Mel Evans/Associated Press

Projected Honors: 2016 NBA Rookie of the Year, First Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .430
• Points: 15.2
• Rebounds: 4.0
• Assists: 5.0
• Three-Point Percentage: .368

In terms of ball skills, D'Angelo Russell is as advanced as any teenage guard we've seen since Kyrie Irving. Russell showcased it all at Ohio State, from his handle and scoring ability to his passing instincts and jumper.

Team fit will likely decide whether Russell spends his rookie year playing the point or the 2. Either way, he should be versatile enough to hold down either position, given his 6'5" size, vision and 41.1 percent three-point stroke.

As a scorer, the biggest thing Russell has going for him is that 44 percent jumper off the dribble, per DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony. He's going to be dangerous off ball screens and as a pull-up shooter in transition.

But don't underestimate his confidence and maturity. Those traits should allow him to thrive as a secondary option in an experienced lineup or as a primary playmaker on a team that lacks weapons to surround him with. 

Limited explosiveness will likely weigh on his field-goal percentage. Getting to and finishing at the rim may be a challenge as well.

However, I'm expecting Russell to put up big numbers right away and quickly establish himself as a long-term cornerstone—regardless of where he ends up. 

Emmanuel Mudiay, China, 6'5", PG, 1996

Sam Forencich/Getty Images

Projected Honors: First Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .422
• Points: 14.3
• Rebounds: 5.8
• Assists: 5.2
• Three-Point Percentage: .287

Playing in China should have at least given Emmanuel Mudiay a good sense of what it's like to face grown men. Though I'd take his 18 points and 5.9 assists per game there with a grain of salt, he more than held his own against pros and various former draft picks. 

From a physical standpoint, Mudiay already looks the part of an NBA guard with 6'5", 200-pound size and above-the-rim athleticism. 

His comfort level out of pick-and-rolls should translate to offense right away, both as a scorer and distributor. Mudiay has the passing instincts to set the table for teammates, as well as the ability to finish on the move in the lane and at the rim. 

Playing for a team that pushes the pace would likely suit him best. His burst, shiftiness, body control and vision should lead to easy buckets on the break.

However, he's likely to struggle on the perimeter, where he shot 13-of-38 from three and 27-of-47 from the line overseas. Mudiay can connect in the mid-range, but he's clearly a work in progress as a shooter. 

You can also expect him to lead all rookies in turnovers. Decision-making remains a weakness for Mudiay, who coughed it up 4.1 times per 40 minutes abroad. 

I'd imagine Mudiay will have a productive, yet inefficient, rookie season as a starter from opening night.

Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'6", SF, Freshman

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Honors: Second Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .443
• Points: 10
• Rebounds: 5.0
• Assists: 1.2
• Three-Point Percentage: .339

Justise Winslow's rookie impact is more likely to be felt on defense, where his 225-pound frame, electric athleticism and motor should translate right away. 

He projects as a defender that coaches can stick on opposing teams' top perimeter scorers, including ball-handlers, 2-guards and wings. 

However, despite many of the highlights he created above the rim, Winslow is still fairly raw offensively. He had trouble creating against set half-court defenses and shot just 26.9 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com. 

The big question with Winslow is whether that 41.1 percent three-point stroke carries over. He only shot 64.1 percent at the line and 2-of-19 on the year off pull-ups, per DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony. 

I'd imagine his three-ball will cool off in 2015-16, as he still has confidence and accuracy to build with the jumper. 

Still, his ability to slash from angles, attack open lanes and finish on the break should work in 2015-16. Winslow's immediate projection offensively is as a complementary weapon who spots up, drives in straight lines and cuts off the ball. Don't count on much one-on-one scoring.

Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Freshman

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Honors: Second Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .522
• Points: 6.2
• Rebounds: 4.9
• Blocks: 1.0
• Steals: 0.8

Willie Cauley-Stein's role and responsibilities shouldn't change much from college to the pros. NBA coaches won't be running any plays for him unless it involves him finishing a pick-and-roll or drive-and-dish at the basket.

Though unpolished ball skills will limit his offensive purpose, Cauley-Stein's defensive versatility should translate right away. 

At 7'0", he'll immediately enter the league as one of the game's premier athletes—especially at his position. 

As a rookie, he should give a team rim protection, as well as the ability to switch onto guards in pick-and-roll coverage and pressure or trap the ball. 

Cauley-Stein's impact isn't likely to show up in the box scores next year, but it should be felt on the floor. He has the potential to bring a new dimension of defense and athleticism to a frontcourt right off the bat.

Mario Hezonja, Croatia, 6'8", SG/SF, 1995

Projected Honors: Second Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .448
• Points: 9.8
• Rebounds: 3.5
• Assists: 1.0
• Three-Point Percentage: .360

Despite having played sparingly over the past two years overseas, Mario Hezonja should be ready to contribute a lot sooner than most. 

While many college studs must adapt to seeing reduced touches and minutes, Hezonja's NBA role shouldn't be all that different from his current role with Barcelona. 

He plays mostly off the ball, where he relies on spot-up shooting and open-floor opportunities. And given his 39.9 percent three-point stroke and world-class athletic ability, there is no reason why those strengths can't carry over. 

Hezonja can handle the ball out of pick-and-rolls as well, and at 6'8" with quick feet, long arms and a strong frame, his defensive tools should be up to the task. 

He also oozes with confidence, which shows up both on and off the floor. “If I was in college I’d probably be the No. 1 pick,” Hezonja told Basketball Insiders' David Pick in January. 

I'm expecting Hezonja to be one of the more pleasant rookie surprises—especially if he's given minutes and the freedom to get out and run. 

Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia, 7'0", PF, 1996

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .411
• Points: 5.9
• Rebounds: 2.9
• Blocks: 0.2
• Three-point Percentage: .349

Kristaps Porzingis won't be expected to make much noise in 2015-16, regardless of whether he comes right over or stays in Europe. 

At 220 pounds, he doesn't quite have the physical build to bang inside the paint. Chances are whoever drafts him will give him a year to develop his body and sharpen his skills. 

However, if minutes become available, his ability to stretch the floor as a shooter could come into play at some point in the season. Porzingis has a natural, quick-release jumper out to the three-point arc (37.7 percent). Coaches may value the threat he poses in the pick-and-pop and drive-and-kick games, which creates spacing and forces opposing defensive big men away from the basket. 

Still, teams won't be viewing Porzingis as an immediate solution. General managers will be willing to reach on him due to his long-term potential. 

Stanley Johnson, Arizona, 6'7", SF, Freshman

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Projected Honors: First Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .447
• Points: 12.8
• Rebounds: 4.8
• Assists: 1.2
• Three-point Percentage: .350

At 6'7", 245 pounds with above-average athleticism, Stanley Johnson should hold his own physically from Day 1 on the job. He's quick, agile and powerful, which will work for him at both ends of the floor. 

But he also turned out to be more polished offensively than many had projected. He averaged 19.4 points per 40 minutes and made 43 threes in 38 games. He also showcased an impressive in-between game, something all guards and small forwards need in order to maximize the threat they pose in the half court. 

Johnson shot 44.4 percent on two-point jumpers consisting of pull-ups, floaters and runners, per Hoop-Math.com. He still has to improve as a one-on-one shot-creator, but he's capable of dribbling into space and rising up for a shot.

Johnson projects rather favorably on defense as well, between his frame, length and foot speed. 

Without the ability to consistently create good looks, Johnson is probably more of a fourth option in a starting lineup. But if he lands on a team without many weapons on the wing, he could be good for 25-plus minutes per game as a rookie.

Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin, 7'0", C, Senior

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Projected Honors: Second Team All-Rookie

Projected Stats (Averages)

• Field-Goal Percentage: .450
• Points: 9.6
• Rebounds: 3.4
• Blocks: 0.3
• Three-point Percentage: .377

The best thing going for Frank Kaminsky is the blend of 7'0" size and a 41.6 percent three-point stroke. His ability to work the pick-and-pop game and spread the floor should translate quickly.

It also forces opposing big men away from the rim, where he can take advantage of his face-up footwork and shot-making skills on the move. 

Unfortunately, a lack of strength and athleticism clouds his outlook as an interior player. Kaminsky could have trouble separating in the post, finishing after contact or holding his own under the boards. 

He also doesn't project as a shot-blocker, given his 4.5 percent block percentage, per Sports-Reference.com, and lack of lift. 

I'd expect Kaminsky's shooting and overall basketball IQ to stand out his rookie year. But I wouldn't bank on him lighting up defenses as a go-to inside-out big man.